WillGreenwood

New Zealand v France - Saturday 09:30 (ITV1)

Bettors who believe this is a second string French side are kidding themselves. Marc Lievremont is a coach of firm convictions. He axes those who do not play well and sticks with those who deliver: performance is his only criteria for selection.

Francois Trinh-Duc has been punished for a couple of indifferent displays but if Lievremont was resting key men, he would not have selected Morgan Parra. The fly-half/scrum-half, who will play at ten against New Zealand, is essential to French progress at the World Cup and, on a wet night in Auckland, his kicking could be vital. The battle between Parra and Dan Carter is an intriguing prospect but France have stealth amongst the forwards too. Lionel Nallet, aka "the caveman," is a formidable competitor who, along with number eight Louis Picamoles, will ensure a fraught contest up front.

The hosts come into this match as big favourites but slightly undercooked after comfortable victories over Tonga and Japan. The recent Tri-Nations campaign stands them in good stead, following a couple of defeats they are taking nothing for granted this time. Their trip to Christchuch, scene of the terrible earthquake, has reminded them of how much is at stake at this World Cup. Their country needs them to stand up and perform. I believe they will.

France may have the hoodoo over the All Blacks but, if the mercurial bleus are to produce a momentous performance and upset the hosts, it's more likely to be in the final than in this Pool game. Check the weather on the day but I think there's value in backing New Zealand to win by less than 12.5 points.

Recommended Bet
Back New Zealand to win by less than 12.5 @ 3.2


Scotland v Argentina - Sunday 08:30 (ITV1)

I want Scotland to win this and set up the greatest match between the Auld Enemies since 1991. That day, Gavin Hastings' sliced penalty denied the Scots a place in the World Cup final and they would love the opportunity to dent England's campaign twenty years on.

But can they beat Argentina and give themselves that chance against England next week? Sadly, I don't think so. Andy Robinson's team have produced little evidence so far to suggest they can overcome this intense Puma's side. There's a resilience about the way Felipe Contepomi and co. go about their rugby which would make me very reluctant to back them against almost any opposition.

I know Scotland beat them twice in their own back yard last summer but Argentina play with such passionate warrior spirit that I believe they will justify their favouritism on Sunday. There is little flamboyance about them - no triple cyclones, to use ice-skating terminology - but they work their way down the pitch yard by yard, wearing opponents down. Argentina can be grueling to play against.

I'd love Scotland to win this one but I must follow my head over my heart and back Argentina to win and go through to the quarter-finals as Pool B runners up. There, they are likely to go out to New Zealand.

Recommended Bet
3pts Back Argentina to win by less than 12.5 points @ 2.02

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