For EeternalOptimist ( probably ) as will get back to Menelaus when have read the wisdom of the Ferguson, smiles:

As you may know from the ahem other place, I think we both like to see hyperbolic language used selectively.
Common examples that annoy us both ( got to be careful as it's presumptious to speak for you ) include starvation when what's really meant is hunger, poverty when what's really meant is income inequality, decimation when a little trimming of a budget by a couple of a % has happened. So if hyperinflation is to get a definition which means that it's used sparingly, then that'll be just fine.

No Melly you haven't. You squirmed and lied that only you could see the tsunami of inflation when in fact there has been a relatively modest tick up. Lets leave aside causality for a moment, in the mid 1970's when inflation was running at over 25% people were worried about it but they called it for what they saw it as ie high inflation. They didn't call it a tsunami or in those days a tidal wave. Clearly they wouldn't because such things carry all before them and leave devastation in their wake. You were wrong. The fact that your ego will not allow you to concede the point is most informative. Bongo almost certainly wasn't referring to you when he cites hyperbolic language but only because he doesn't yet know how you operate. He will soon enough.

There's nothing worse than an obsessed halfwit.

It looks like the first few dozen times I answered this it went right over your head, so let me try again.

You probably live in some kind of a nanny state owned or subsidized council home. You don't have to worry about skyrocketing general upkeep, maintenance, property taxes, insurance and utilities costs, the tax payer is paying on your behalf. So no tsunami here for you to see.

You don't own a vehicle, therefore no skying maintenance and insurance costs. Hell come to think of it, you can't even use public transport with its recently higher ticket prices that have everyone complaining, you're in all likelihood on a wheelchair FFS. Any special services offered by NHS to move you around are paid by, you guessed it, people like me. And we also send you an incapacity benefit to boot to do as you please. No tsunami for you to see here either.

You eat sh1t. When food prices are skying, you switch to a cheaper brand of sh1t. No tsunami for you to see here either.

You are single and live alone (no probably or likelihood here - that I know for certain), therefore you have no family to educate, so education costs spiralling out of control are none of your concern. Yes sir, no tsunami here either.

Those totally ineffective pills you keep popping to help with your serotonin deficiency are paid for with…….. drum roll please…...the money the nanny state steals from me. No tsunami to see here either.

As for the rest of us, in a financial world where fortunes are made and lost on a trillion $ plus FX market where currencies are quoted to THE FOURTH DECIMAL point, where billions can be added or lost on the market cap of a company trading on the equities markets because it beat or missed expectations by A FRACTION OF A PERCENT, where billions can be lost or added in the value of  major market indices because the economy expended or contracted by A FRACTION OF A PERCENT, where an economy can be deemed to be in expansion or contraction by a mere difference of ONE PERCENT or less, where margin calls can be triggered by a hypothecated asset dropping its market value by a FRACTION OF A PERCENT, I would day that REAL inflation running over the "official" number by around 10pc based on my experience is indeed a f/king tsunami.

It all depends on your perspective.









Now, how about answering my question, its plain courtesy:

How do you plan to get rid of the "Menelaus" I stenciled on your mind?

As for "money dies" being a hyperbole, just visit your nearest coin & banknote dealer and ask him to show you all those notes from all over the world that are no longer in circulation and have been demoted to for "collectors only" dustbin. Most all were hyperinflated to death.

Hyperbole my a$$.


There is one thing worse than an obsessed halfwit, and it's an obsessed halfwit trying to feign intellect.

Now answer the question.

bongo

Hyperinflation has happened far more often than 3 times in the last 100 years.

bongo

Regarding the second part of your post when there is hyperinflation extreme and dramatic language is indeed legitimate. In fact describing it as a tsunami would be apposite.

What I am objecting to is the fact that Melly told us that it was inevitable that there would be a tsunami of inflation. He was quite clear that this wasn't a case of hyperinflation but clearly of devastatingly high inflation. He guaranteed it. When it failed to materialise he twisted himself into knots attempting to convince people that it was really here but that only he could see it. Emperors new clothes and all that. He is pathologically incapable of accepting when he calls something wrong and so he continues with the charade.

Do you think there has been a tsunami of inflation? Would anybody in their right mind? It is hyperbolic language which only confuses the issue and makes its originator look like a fool.

Sorry Melly. Not good enough. I know you are an arrogant buffoon but some of us at least gave you the benefit of the doubt regarding your honesty and thought you would come clean when a forensic mind dissected you. It appears I was wrong. This was the heart of what you wrote back in late 2010. It is interesting because it is one of the few occasions when you give any kind of indication of a timeline.

Which has nothing to do with the tsunami of inflation that is coming (100pc certainty)...........The next two years will prove more than interesting.

This is what you say today which is virtually two years after that event.

I never said live wouldn't go on, are you making this sh1t up as you go. Again, your small mind is interpreting the use of the word "tsunami" to mean a life extinction event is approaching. Those delving in the world of finance though understood what I meant and profited from it. If you expect REAL inflation at TEN PERCENT over official reports THEN you make plays on the markets (and manage your money accordingly) to PROFIT. That was the sole point of my original post. If you expect INFLATION, buy gold, buy equities, buy commodities. All reacted as predicted for PROFIT.

Wrong on the first point. I wasn't interpreting it in that way. I was interpreting it as a massive life affecting event.

The key thing is that all didn't react how you suggested. The money on gold and silver was to be made in the preceding years. That would have been a smart call. Yours was a stupid call. Today measured in either USD (your preferred measure) or GBP both gold and silver are lower than a year ago. I think they have a word for that. Doesn't it begin with a D? The bird had flown by the time you made your call.

Same with oil. In May 2012 the latest date which inflation data.com has information for oil was lower in price than immediately after your call in January 2011. Incidentally, the historical high point of oil adjusted for inflation was in 1980.

For once you pinned your colours to the mast and even when your best case scenario of continued arguably ongoing QE came to fruition your predictions were still hopelessly wrong. On any measure the tsunami of inflation about which you referred had already happened. The smart guys had already made their money at that time. You were just a hanger on trying to predict the future based on what had happened.

Now if you had really been smart you would have known and been able to explain why further bouts of QE would not have the same effects as the earlier efforts.

The second post was meant to be this:

"It's time you give up because your are starting to sound and behave like a complete lunatic. So you thought you were a "big" man because you are the tallest Lilliputian. Then you looked up………..and you're still in shock.

You went way back and found some posts of mine, lifted specific lines that suit you while ignoring countless others, and now you are throwing temper tantrums because I'm not taking the bait.

What I said was that the inflation was are seeing now, which is multiples higher than what's officially reported by the government (even though clearly you don't even know how they actually come up with that number), is leakage. Driven by speculation into commodities with money the CBs handed over to the banks in exchange for worthless paper. The tsunami of inflation is still sitting with bank excess reserves on the CBs balance sheets, which they can't rein in when they have to because they can't raise interest rates without governments, and just about everyone else blowing up. You know when Bernanke said he can rein in inflation in 15 minutes, well, he lied.

You're in way over your head. Your knowledge in the area where I make my living is anecdotal. It shows, despite the colorful language and the never ending parade of strawmen. You are probably a retired school teacher, who reads this stuff without the background and tools to understand it, and who wonders where it all went wrong when you can't even afford to take a short trip to London to learn something new. You are no barrister either because when I laid down the test of the reasonable man, which is a well established legal principle, it went right over your head.

There are Gullivers out there. Get over it.

Physician heal thyself.

This forum has waited a long time for this moment. A dishevelled Melly running from the battlefield shouting to the guffawing masses that it is but a mere tactical retreat. Don't sweat it Melly. The ability to break people down is a rare gift and sooner or later virtually everybody meets their nemesis. I'll keep looking.

In the meantime I'll leave you with a little thought. I believe the originator of the black swan analogy was Karl Popper that just one black swan in the whole world would disprove the assertion that all swans were white. Simple but profound. That is the number I have been doing on you. This issue was the smoking gun. Once it was established that you could be wrong about this then your veneer of invincibility would be shattered and my job done because you could be wrong about anything.

One strand at a time which ultimately reduces you from oracle to gobshiite forced to hiding behind his wife's skirt. Family needs indeed.

I thought you had mouths to feed and were too busy to explain why you called inflation in assets when they dropped against the same fiat you so despise. Ah I see. You were too busy for that but you have all the time in the world for your bullshiit.

That is the number I have been doing on you.

and there was me thinking i had already done it at the first attempt on this thread!

Do my eyes deceive me???



Could this be true???

A post on here by someone other than the self immolating halfwits and their alter egos???

A post other than the incessant self denigrating circle jerk by the usual suspects???

WTF???







P.S. Keep reading bongo, it gets better.

as I have illustrated



Like I said until you can understand that you were wrong you won't be able to understand why you were wrong and your future predictions will amount to little more than wetting your finger and sticking it in the air.




You only understand half of the story and that will remain your achilles heal





You should first stop making things up (I know, I know, it's a hard to do with your condition) and then follow it up by canceling your subscription to whatever rag you are reading.

ALL FLUFF AND NO SUBSTANCE......the more things change on here the more they stay the same.

And the coup de grace:

I'm in the inflation now, massive inflation coming, hyperinflation a threat if the FED stays on this path camp.

Thanks for posting.

For someone who squeals so much about misrepresentation you do seem to do an awful lot of it yourself. We all know exactly what you contend because you have never wavered. It is all written down on this forum.

And I did the same:

What should follow is deflation. The bottom line is that the deleveraging process for this bubble or series of bubbles is immense. There is a credible argument that the policies enacted will slow the inevitable down but that you would need to QE to the order of tens of trillions to douse the flames. Some would argue (I would and I think charlatan is in this camp) that what they are doing is the same kind of shiit which got us here and that they are potentially storing up even bigger problems down the line. However, that is an argument for another day.

The other side of the argument is that in the final analysis once the policy decision has been taken that there will always be a method to create inflation in a fiat monetary system, be it through the printing press, helicopters or simply a man, with a finger and lots of noughts. I think this is the view of menelaus. As I have suggested, I think this is the wrong policy but I don't doubt that everything they have done leads to a conclusion that this is the policy. One of my principle objections centres on the disagreemnt between charlatan and menelaus on the definition of hyperinflation. Incidentally I think both are right in that there is a gestation period but that there is a period of development of consciousness which can be frighteningly quick. My gut feeling is that they aren't yet doing enough on their own to create hyperinflation. I still sit in the camp that says that there is a lot of deleveraging still to come down the pipe. This doesn't mean that if their medicine doesn't work that they won't go for bigger and bigger doses with more and more consequences including the flight to assets and commodities which could make hyperinflation a reality.

So having given a kind of reasoning my own view is that in that kind of time frame (end of 2012) we have about a 20% chance of deflation and about a 75% chance of moderate inflation. This leaves about a 5% chance of high or frightening inflation levels.


Yet in your latest diatribe you continue to come out with pearls. Including this one:

We are in the biggest global economic contraction the modern world has ever seen. The US is contracting and living in a Bernanke made-up bubble waiting for a pin, parts of europe are in outright depression, other parts in a recession or clearly heading into one, Japan is a complete mess and China is slowing down……….BUT Brent is solidly over $100 and food prices are going through the roof……..YET a numbskull like you thinks that the "effects" of QE are diminishing because the equities markets haven't continued going up in a straight line.

All factors which are pulling in the opposite direction to your theory. Or do you not understand what is supposed to happen in a depression? You do understand the process of deleveraging which they are trying and barely succeeding in stopping don't you despite all that money being created? Like I said feel free to keep mispresenting my views but the facts don't lie:

Gold, oil, other commodities have all dropped in value since your pronouncements about accelerating inflation levels.

I don't normally take psychopaths in my class but you're such an amiable chap, in your case I'll make an exception. So put your straight jacket on, take one of the front row desks and face the chalkboard. Your lesson is about to begin.

Or, put another way, you are about to get stripped naked and given a spanking in full public view for putting up things that sound intelligent but are clearly wrong and you  half-understand. Watch this space.

I have no idea where you lifted what you posted before and you now so proudly showcase, but unfortunately it was patently wrong then, as it is glaringly wrong today. Especially today, since the deflation thesis was debunked long ago, but obviously a mug like you didn't get the memo. So let's start at the beginning and I promise to dumb this down enough for you to understand but still get my point across.

You obviously bought into the central bank and main steam media narrative that "What should follow is deflation". An opinion that it appears you still hold steadfastly today and continue to parrot rather loudly on here. You've been had.

IN A FIAT MONETARY SYSTEM DEFLATION IS A MYTH. Here's why:

(I can already see you waiving your head side to side and  screaming, Japan, Japan, Japan…….just STFU and be patient, I'll get to that)

We have a credit based money system and under this system sustained periods of money supply contraction and price deflation DO NOT happen. Prolonged and meaningful price deflation has NOT happen anywhere in the world INCLUDING Japan (again more on Japan later) since the gold standard was abolished. In fact, even during the great depression, the only one of two quasi legitimate examples of an economy imploding due to deflationary forces  (the first is the first three years of the Great Depression, the other is the year following WWI), a country that went OFF the gold standard weathered the storm and never experienced price deflation.  In fact it even experienced  inflation that would make the BoE with their 2pc target green with envy (the country I'm referring to is Sweden and the source is Irving Fisher's 1934 "Debt Deflation Theory of the Great Depressions" ).

Under the gold standard, there were LEGAL requirements to have credit/money issued backed by physical gold bullion holdings. From an accounting standpoint, the central bank had to have ASSETS (gold bullion) entries matching the money printing (LIABILITIES) side of the balance sheet. That was the whole point of the gold standard, to limit the ability of bankers/politicians to print money at will for a government to spend when spending exceeded revenues (TAXES). To prevent the trap that every sovereign has now fallen into, DEFICIT SPENDING. But just as important, to limit the ability of bankers to tax the public without representation. That's what currency debasement really is.

With the abandonment of the gold standard, the legal requirement to balance the liabilities on the ledger with physical gold bullion was REMOVED. The central bank, just like magic, can expand the money supply by making ledger entries on BOTH the assets and liabilities side of the balance sheet. The process, therefore, of EXPANDING the money supply (cough,cough,INFLATION,cough,cough) became as SIMPLE as typing a few numbers on a keyboard and clicking on the "send" button. INFLATION, after all in economic terms, is an expansion in the money supply, nothing more, nothing less. DEFLATION is the opposite. All one has to do to understand this point is to have a look at the charts at the US deficits and the parabolic shape of the curve starting exactly at 1971.

(NOTE: The price of gold followed the trajectory of the US deficits but I won't discuss this here now since my views of how the FED continues to blatantly manipulate the PM's markets are pasted all over this forum and it is a debate for a different day. Presently, the paper price of gold has been manipulated and distorted so much, it has been rendered almost meaningless as a valid indicator of serious inflation in the inflation/deflation debate.)

Now, I know most people don't live in economic formulas so to the public INFLATION typically means rising consumer prices (which can happen WITHOUT actually expanding the money supply, scarcity of an item has a profound effect on raising its price) and DEFLATION the opposite.  Consumer price deflation can also happen WITHOUT contracting the money supply, competition and technical advances have a profound effect on lowering prices. Governments in turn, determine the impact of inflation on their economies by measuring producer and consumer price inflation. The methodology for measuring those two is also a debate for a different day but let's just say the government statistics consistently  UNDERSTATE real inflation and EVERY change that has been made to the methodology is the last 20 years (and about the be made again in the UK) was made for the sole purpose of lowering the reported official number. If you doubt that, then I regret allowing you in my class in the first place.

Here's where it gets a little complicated. There is no DIRECT way to measure inflationary forces in an economy. Both the money supply and the available supply of goods are constantly changing. If the money supply is expanding ahead of demand, that is not necessarily immediately reflected in consumer price inflation. Layer on top of this a methodology that takes advantage of the fact that measuring inflation is not an exact science and which by DESIGN is understating inflation, and the bankers blaming any prevailing inflation on every other reason they can think off (transitory, drought, global impacts) except too much money printing and the waters get pretty murky pretty quickly for the hapless public. But it doesn't stop there, weight outs (same or small price increase, same package, fewer contents) and fade outs (same or small price increase, smaller package therefore fewer contents - have you looked at the size of a chocolate bar lately?) further confuse consumers the one place where they can actually see inflation at work (food prices) in their daily lives. But no one who can count to two without missing a number in between can dispute that SOONER OR LATER, if the supply of money increases FASTER than the demand for that money by consumers to use to purchase a fixed supply of goods, inflation in consumer prices will follow. The opposite with deflation.

When you ask deflationists, you know, the "what should follow next is deflation" clueless mug variety, to point out where this phantom deflation really is, they can certainly NOT point to the most fundamental and essential items to the public like food, energy, medical and education costs since they are all going up, significantly higher up than the reported official inflation number if I may add, so they typically point to two things. Housing prices and deleveraging.

According to the deflationists, housing prices that grew to bubble prices in a binge of debt fueled orgy of real estate speculation, reverting back to the mean (and still a long ways from the mean) is deflation.  Laughable, especially when the housing market is priced at the margin.

So it's the deleveraging then. Money is created as debt, bad loans were made, those loans are in default, the paper becomes toxic, money gets destroyed, the money supply contracts. Furthermore, there's now a short supply of credit worthy borrowers, so the amount of money created through debt creation drops. That's deflationary. Also, spooked consumers pay down loans quicker than their maturity, thus shrinking the level of outstanding credit by extinguishing debt faster that new debt is created by new borrowers, overall credit outstanding contracts, money is being destroyed, hence inflation. There you have it, it's deflation then, what more proof do you want?

Not so fast grasshopper.

First and the easiest to debunk, consumers are not paying down debt. We've seen a downward bleep, both in the UK and US, in the consumer credit curve at the height of the crisis, which is now well in the rear view mirror, when mortgages were being defaulted on. That was not a voluntary debt pay down by consumers who all of a sudden found religion (consumer deleveraging) although it was presented as such by the central banks. If they are printing, they must shout "deflation" to justify their actions. Consumer credit is EXPANDING, so much for voluntary deleveraging. So much for deflation.

Now let's move on with the illusion of  deflation because people are not borrowing anymore. The money system today is actually a HYBRID system (this gets a little technical here so I won't delve into this too much and confuse you). It is a PUBLIC (the government) and PRIVATE credit money system. Which essentially means (and this is what had actually happened) that when the public stops borrowing, the government borrows on your behalf (I posted numerous times about this but I guess it doesn't fit your misguided narrative so you didn't bother lifting those lines out of my posts). The government fills the gap with DEFICIT spending. What do you think one of the main two reasons is that central banks are QEing? And guess what, without a gold standard, they can create money out of thin air with just a few keystrokes, unlimited and without an end date. Osborne found £35bn under his pillow the other day to spend as he pleases. How do you think that money came into existence and what does it mean when the government spends it?

Which now leaves the last and only place were deflation can really be found, defaulting paper on bank balance sheets. But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, these insolvent banks with their imploding balance sheets DID NOT go down, The bad debt was NOT discharged, it did NOT clear the system, it was rarely acknowledged as defaulted on. It was exchanged with the chaps that could create money out of thin air, the lenders of last resort. That money that was supposed to be getting destroyed and had every numbskull who parrots sh1t without understanding it shout "what should follow is deflation"…….IS STILL THERE. Either sitting on OBS entries, or marked to fantasy, or transferred on the FED's balance BUT STILL THERE NONETHELESS. The numbskulls shouting "what should follow next is deflation" forgot that in a fiat monetary system the central bank can create money at will, an unlimited amount at that. The only stumbling block is how to disguise the fact that money is backed by nothing, and can be crated by the money cartel to hand to its friends, to the clueless public and to manage and space out the money printing orgy sessions in a such a way that the peasants don't starve to death from rising food prices. Everything else is NOISE.

Which brings us to the last desperate bastion of deflationary stupidity…..JAPAN, The poster child of every clueless deflationist out there wasting the good oxygen he breathes. "But Japan, with its lost two decades, has deflation". Really? Have they? Well, that's the narrative anyways, but have you thought about it on your own? Well, let me help you think for yourself. What was the average inflation measure in Japan for the years when they reported under zero inflation. The answer is, (minus) -0.18. Wow, some deflation. And what methodology does Japan use for measuring inflation? The answer is, since they are really nothing more than an American protectorate (have been that since the end of the war) and since they wanted to hide the high inflation years of the early 70s, the US model. And how much does the US model UNDERSTATE inflation? What? You have no idea? Well neither do I precisely to be honest but I guarantee you it's multiples the -0.18 number? Disinflation, yes, but deflation my a$$.

So mug, where the feck is the deflation that followed next? If keeping a my house lit and warm, continue to feed my family well, giving them the education they so richly deserve and providing the best medical care for them, not to mention filling my car up with petrol is costing so much more today than when your "deflation follows next" showed up, then what the feck am I going to be paying when you finally acknowledge inflation is here? You don't see it, because it doesn't effect you. The nanny state will keep sending you my money, until one day it can't anymore.

All your other comments about Gold, Oil and commodities being lower today than when I was posting inflation is coming are so far off base, they only again put your skin deep knowledge of finance and economics on display. Unfortunately to properly respond to that I would have to come up with another 10,000 word post and at this point I couldn't you a toss what a clueless mug like you thinks or has to say. I'll just economize and say with as much sarcasm as I can muster, "yeah, I know what you mean, just look at fuel and food prices going down every day".

You can pull your trousers up now. CLASS DISMISSED.





P.S. The charts are from the St.Louis FED and are US specific but they tell a tale that can't be ignored about the world's reserve currency? Unless of course you are all fluff and no substance in which case you can ignore them.

Where…..is………the………..fecking………deflation?????

CLOWN

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1/

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALSL/

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALGOV

ttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=8l2