I agree with J2 that chinas gold reserves are far  higher in reality than official numbers published. Actually I don't believe a single number that comes out of china.It's all propaganda from a communist govt.Its only the direction/trend that is true.

  But I also agree with JW that the yuan will never become  a reserve currency for the same reasons.Can't be trusted.Truth is a foreign concept in china where deception is a way of life.

   If the world reserve currency were to change  the euro would be at the top of the  list. Other contenders would be the swissy or  a scandanavian ccy.

    How about the AUD stable democracy, strong economy, rising in value. Maybe not, We are too resource dependant.Resource downturn sees the AUD plummet.

    The reality is that unless the USD does actually collapse, not just fall, its the most likely to remain the nominated reserve ccy, even if less and less transactions are  using USD.

        A friend of mine who imports art into aust from asia has recently been told that she can pay in AUD now.Previously all  payments had to be made in USD.

inflation shhhhmaflation this super should pay 5 figures and I hit it 5 times

sad melly, sad man.

JW asks "what s got to do with what i posted for j2blue?"

It has everything to do with what you posted for J2BLUE. You berated him that the yuan couldn't possibly be a global reserve currency backed by gold because China does not have enough gold. Yet the US gold reserves that haven't been audited since the 50's, you know, the ones that have been "leased" out to the banks for years now to suppress the price of gold, yes, those reserves, may not even be there.


?????
my point is not that the yuan cannot become the reserve ccy.
my point is that the yuan cannot become a gold-backed reserve ccy.
who cares wheter the us have gold or not, the dollar is not been convertible for the last 40yrs.

i know you like your diatribes and always want to have the last word, but seriously? you re trying to argue about nothing now.

good luck tomorrow.

Melanie

Big Mac and fries for me please

Actually, your post gives me hope that you are finally starting to get it, then again may be not. You've gone from a complete denial inflation was actually prevalent, to CPI inflation is rising to now 10pc......but frankly you are sceptical. I say you've come a long ways.

If you don't think 10pc is massive "in your book" as far as inflation goes, then it's your problem. My time time was never "ill defined", it was never defined, despite your screaming and hollering repeatedly for one. Why? Precisely because I could sense your intentions. You weren't asking because you were genuinely interested, you were asking so you could come back at some time in the future and shout....YOU WERE WRONG.

Try again. Your impatience and definition of massive got the better of you. Sometimes I wonder why I bother on here......

oh feck- which is it melly?????????????????????

plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

hyperinflation or deflation?????

please advise.

or get canadian to advise.Same same.

Benny, you'll find all the answers you are looking for right here:


Menelaus     Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 734 17 Jun 11 00:24 
..........
The real sad part about this forum is that it is literally "open" to everyone. All the way from those with a genuine understanding of finance, economics, the markets, the role of the FED and central banks and well......money, and there's many posters like that on here, all the way to an epic ignoramus who feels the need to poison EVERY thread with his ignorance like Benny.

.................

charlatan, if there's a more appropriate name used by a poster on here please point it out to me.

wrong. inflation is almost always prevalent. it is well below 10 per cent at present imo.


This is certainly a BIG change to your position (always prevalent) and about the 10pc thing, you're entitled to your opinion but you should get out more, eat better, buy a car, buy a house and you may change your mind.

So what's he point of making claims which aren't falsifiable?


I wasn't "making claims", I never "make claims", I just state the facts as I know them. And the more honest the debate, the more sincere the interest in what I'm saying, the more DETAILED my message. In your case, it was clear from the outset that the ONLY reason you wanted to pin me down to an exact number (how much is massive?) and exact timing (when?) was to come back and ridicule me later. If you are wondering how I sensed that, you can start by how often you participate on here in discussions beyond keep bringing this post up again and again and, well......how shall I put it.....charlatan (duhhh!!!!)

I didn't define it. I asked you to define to it since it was your term. You couldn't do so, demonstrating that you suspected you were talking out of your hat at the time, which events have since demonstrated fairly clearly. So, yeah, I'm wondering why you bother too.

You have to come up with something way more original than that.....I think I just read "I didn't define it" somewhere before. You did....by posting. The next line above is some words put together at random it seems, I'll let you know what I think of it when I get a six grader to translate it for me. Why do I bother? Because I enjoy bringing the "best" out of characters like you......

If you are wondering how I sensed that, you can start by how often you participate on here in discussions beyond keep bringing this post up again and again and, well......how shall I put it.....charlatan (duhhh!!!!)

i think you'll find i've been posting here since before you and your alterego set up your accts. if you're bored enough you can find loads of my posts on the house price thread.

When they are "officially" telling you price inflation is running at 5.2%, how much do you think REAL price inflation is running at? And this doesn't even include the effects of QE2 which won't work their way through the system until 6-12 months AFTER QE2 is completed.

Are you getting yet charlatan, or are you still thinking that bubble housing prices reverting to historic means is deflation?

Deflation is ONLY to be found on bank balance sheets, nowhere else. Which invokes the typical response from a central bank to save the banking system by.....wait for it...printing money. Which means inflation to you and I.

Are you getting it yet?

P(hyperinflation in 2011) now downgraded from miniscule to less than P(gordon brown regains labour leadership and becomes pm).

I agree with inflation at 10%, that's what I'm  finding.

are you still thinking that bubble housing prices reverting to historic means is deflation?

it is (the inflationary episode was when rates were too low and pirces went through the roof) although the situaiton here hasn't changed much lately. just a small drop in prices probably offset by a small rise in rents in some areas (certainly not much here).

The general expectations of people are currently depressed and hence the economic mood feels deflationary.
How that current situation converts eventually into hyperinflation is something I'm not yet convinced of, despite Menelaus' apparent firm convictions that it is seemingly a given.
I think it's more likely or probable that inflation will carry on at the current levels for a long, long time, with people slowly adjusting their mood and expectations upwards as they come to accept that there has been no real paradigm change.
However, unlike Menelaus, I'm prepared to admit that I could be very, very wrong, theoretically at least.

Benny, these concepts are so over your head it must feel to you like all my posts are written in chinese.

We're in the eye of the storm, Benny. Deflation and inflation indicators abound, you only have to know where to look and understand what they mean. Why do you think the BoE is doing QE and prepared to do more evidently when even by national statistics heavily manipulated numbers price inflation is running well ahead of their target?

Pardon me, I used the work "think" in there, silly me. Let's start over again.

Benny, it's because what deflation means to the BoE has nothing to do with what deflation means to you. FFS Benny, you can't even define these concepts let alone understand them. You see, Benny, MONEY IS CREATED AS DEBT (never forget that Benny - it was my first free lesson to you), so when the BoE talks about deflation, the deflation they are referring to is.........DEBT DESTRUCTION (aka money and credit destruction). Money and credit evaporates through ASSET deflation that destroys bank balance sheets. And what's their answer? But to create more fiat money of course, to cover the gaping hole. Because if they don't, the ponzi scheme of creating fiat money out of thin air comes to an end (no exponential growth to cover compounding interest) and the monetary system collapses. Notice I didn't say the economy collapses, that comes immediately after the monetary system collapse. And all this time you thought it was about the average Andy Capp, creating jobs, the productive economy, the CPI, didn't you Benny?

You see Benny, the banks capital base for leverage is the spread between borrowing very short from the central bank (how's close to zero sound to you?) and lending at the long end of the curve. Deflation drops the spread between the short and the long end since so far the mighty BoE hasn't figured out a way to make the short term nominal rates negative (they are working on it). So, when you have reduced capital and you have to start unwinding levered positions at some 20X plus then.....how shall I put it......well, you blow up. So what's the answer Benny? If you said print more money to save the financial system again, you would be correct. Pardon me Benny, I didn't mean to start talking mandarin.........

Deflation is the stepmother of hyperinflation Benny, and hyperinflation is NOT a monetary event nor is "very high inflation" like you thought, but a stupid simpleton like you still doesn't get it. Why? Because you never knew and evidently still don't know how money gets created, the most fundamental thing in economics, what makes the world go round. There's ONLY one way out, Benny. The losses from toxic assets have to be taken allowing the bad debts to clear the system OR destroy the currency in an effort to prevent it. Bernanke has already chosen the latter, everything else is noise.

How do you spell epic ignorance in cantonese? Anyone? Anyone?

I don't have the time, patience or the desire to make you see the light.

but you have to muster a response because the ego demands it

So any fool who argues "wages are not going up" so we can't have hyperinflation is ignorant of history.

who is arguing that? i'm not. i made it clear that hyperinflation could not be ruled out in my earlier post.

you were plain wrong about inflation in the short term and unable to admit it. i have never claimed that hyperinflation is impossible as the end result of the economic carnage simply because government has it in its power to create it at with relatively simple acts of extreme stupidity.

"deflation" in your posts like it's some vague concept

it is a vague concept. some refer to it in credit terms, some in money supply terms and some in price terms for starters. all of those are tircky to measure accurately. most things are going up in price terms. but not massively (as per your now expired prediction).

except housing of course which is NOT deflation except again on a bank balance sheet if the bearer of the mortgage defaults.

so as an individual you're happy to claim around ten per cent inflation based on no data whatsoever and expect me to accept it (yet averring that we shouldn't make financial decisions based on such estimates) while discounting the biggest item of most households' expenditure for no reason other than because you say so. inspired yet oddly unconvincing.

The only reason I ask it's because you mentioned it in one of your posts in the past if I'm not mistaken. Otherwise, I couldn't give a toss to be honest.

As the poster boy of the deflationista movement on here, you were expecting and predicting DEFLATION, as in lower prices which cause an economic slow down spiral which leads to more deflation with more slow down, more lower prices and on and on.

bet you can't provide a quote which justifies that claim! as i've said many times the b of e's actions are deliberately designed to avoid the above and stave off this threat of deflation. this has become ever harder to achieve (leading one to suspect that massive inflation is increasingly unlikely) and so their actions are ever more stupid (which gives you the outside chanc eof eventual hyperinflation). iirc i've never predicted that deflation would happen within a particular timescale or how long it would last for (it has never gone on and on forever so it would be a very bold man who claimed that was around the corner) but before the monetary fiddling began it was very common.

i'm working on the another baby thing on a fairly regular basis at present. i expect it'll come to pass before our next bout of massive inflation!

The only irony in all this is that's it's probably my tax money that even allows a mug like you to exist. One of our major issues in this country is that successive failed governments have allowed the UK to become a nanny state to useless, unproductive, system abusing mugs.

our net assets are more than ten times the total benefits/tax credits we've received from government and total less than the future savings to government of us homeschooling our kids. ironically i'm very economically libertarian and you refuse to reveal your political opinions beyond demanding that the government assert that your laughable predictions are correct.

anyway let's have your P(massive inflation before 2012 end) and P(hyperinflation before 2012 end) for the UK with whatever definition you state for massive.

  I filled up my Porsche Panorama this morning but when I got back in the battery went flat.

So I called my private butler bosworthington to  open the 27 car garage and pick a vehicle to come get me.He replied  "i'll grab the lamborghini " sure or the Hummer will do also, that Rolls  just chews up too much juice.

  After bosw picked me up I called  a tow truck to take the PP to the wreckers as I now considered it not worthy.

We drove to the airport where I boarded my private  jet.Elton John was waiting there and asked me if he could snag a lift. I told him there was'nt room.He replied " but its a 30 seat jet!"


What can I say- I like my privacy.

My morning then commenced.A quick visit to france where we would land and I would take a chopper{ mine also} for a quick dip in the pool at my french villa.
Back to the airport and its off to Zurich to dump a few million in cash into my hidden accounts.

  Then onto NYC for lunch  and a chat with Trumpie about concrete prices. I need to know that because I'm thinking of buying the Mykonos and paving it over.

  My name is Melanus and this is my life.