TimeformBlog

Timeform go through the runners for the day's big handicap at Sandown...


Circumvent won a mile-and-a-quarter handicap at Newmarket's July meeting in 2010 and also ran well that year when third in a listed race over the same trip at Ayr in September. He was only mid-field in the Cambridgeshire on his final three-year-old start and didn't make much impact in a similarly competitive handicap at Royal Ascot last time.

Harrison George won four times at up to a mile last season. He has left the impression he's gradually working his way back to form and has been dropped a further 3 lb after finishing in mid-field over nine furlongs at York last time.

Light From Mars was back to form with a bang when winning the Spring Cup over a mile at Newbury in April. He hasn't been at his best on either start since, though will appreciate this return to a more suitable trip.

Start Right blossomed last summer, capturing two well-contested handicap. He caught the eye on his penultimate start and wasn't ideally drawn when sixth in the Royal Hunt Cup last time. He is well capable of getting involved.

Dunn'o goes very well here and was better than ever when beating Leviathan by two and a half lengths over course and distance last time. He was possibly helped by racing along on the far side that occasion, but is always entitled to respect at this track.

Kyllachy Star produced a career bet when winning over the extended seven furlongs at Chester in May. He has run just respectably both starts since, though, and could have been better drawn.

Man of Action improved with each of his four runs for John Gosden last summer, winning twice over seven furlongs, but a gelding operation and visor need to have made a difference after running a shocker starting out for this yard last time.

Toolain won twice over seven furlongs at two. He has got back on track with decent efforts in competitive handicaps the last twice, though left the impression that a mile stretched him at Haydock last time, and is now tried in cheekpieces.

Decent Fella is a lightly-raced five-year-old who has improved this term, winning over seven furlongs at Newmarket and finishing a good fourth in the Buckingham Palace over the same trip at Royal Ascot. He travelled strongly that day so it remains to be seen whether the step back up to a mile will suit.

Leivathan is a hold-up performer who has done well for this yard, ending a losing run at Salisbury last time. His earlier course-and-distance second also reads well and a 3 lb rise for Salisbury is unlikely to prevent him from running another big race.

Sooraah won twice around this time last year, including over course and distance. She ran a career best when second over this trip at Ascot on her penultimate start and was much better than the bare result in the Royal Hunt Cup there last time, when finishing a long way clear on the unfavoured side of the track.

Pendragon thrived last year, taking his winning tally to six over a mile and a quarter at Ayr in September. He has been doing equally well this time around, his latest fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup a career-best effort. He is likely to give it his usual good shot.

Emerald Wilderness is a free-going sort with a good record on artificial surfaces. He hasn't been since running in Dubai in early-2010, but has been given a chance by the handicapper (won off 1 lb lower on turf in 2009.

Trade Storm won a seven-furlong minor event a Doncaster on his reappearance and took his form up another notch when fifth of 29 to Sagramor in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last time. He has a chance judged on that form but stall 16 won't make life easy here.

Benandonner has been a super servant to his three trainers to date, winning eight times, most recently in a handicap over a mile at Newmarket in May. He had an off day at Epsom last time, however, and stall 17 is no help here.

Highland Knight is a useful performer, though was flattered by his run in a Group 2 here in April. He is better judged on his two placed efforts since, finding only Dance And Dance too good in a competitive handicap at Epsom last time.

Duster has largely been consistent since going handicapping and took his form to another level when beating Amazing Star over seven furlongs at Warwick last time. This is undoubtedly tougher, but his stable continues in fine form.


Timeform 1-2-3:

1. Leviathan
2. Sooraah
3. Harrison George


Timeform View: A wide draw isn't easy to overcome in a big field over this course and distance so it may pay to concentrate on those positioned towards the inner. Leviathan has done well since joining Tony Newcombe and is taken to follow up his Salisbury success. Sooraah rates a big threat, while Harrison George is one to consider at likely longer odds.


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Timeform look ahead to the weekend's best racing...


Sandown is the venue for a heavyweight clash on Saturday as two of the best older horses in training, Workforce and So You Think, are set to do battle in the Eclipse Stakes. The market just favours So You Think, who is out to atone for his narrow defeat in the Prince of Wales's at Royal Ascot though Timeform ratings suggest there is nothing between him and Workforce. Further spice is added to the mix by the presence of the multiple Group 1-winning filly Snow Fairy, though she will need to improve to have a say in the finish against the colts.

The card at Sandown opens with the Group 3 Charge over five furlongs, which looks set to be a hotly contested affair, with just 2 lb separating the top four on Timeform ratings. There are a couple of competitive-looking listed races on the card, namely the Marathon over two miles and the Distaff over a mile for three-year-old fillies. On the handicap front, there is a valuable event set to take place over a mile.

The best of the day's other meetings in Britain takes place at Haydock where the most valuable race on the card is the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks. This year's race looks well up to scratch and the one to beat is Henry Cecil's Vita Nova, who has won three of her four career starts and lost no caste in defeat when beaten a neck into second by Ferdoos is a strong listed race over the same course and distance last time. The big handicap at Haydock is the historic Old Newton Cup over about a mile and a half. The likes of Bourne, Mount Athos and Sirvino all look interesting runners in that race.

There are also British Flat meetings at Beverley and Leicester in the afternoon and Carlisle and Nottingham in the evening, while they go over jumps at Bellewstown in Ireland.

On Sunday it is Ayr on the Flat and Market Rasen over jumps so far as the British action is concerned, while there are also two Irish meetings, set to take place at Bellewstown and Limerick respectively.

The day's Group 1 action takes place on the continent where there will be British and Irish interest in the Deutsches Derby at Hamburg and the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly. The Deutsches Derby is the target for the Tom Dascombe-trained Brown Panther, who was so impressive when winning the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. He has some of the best form on offer in the 18-runner field, alongside the top domestically trained contender Arrigo, who will be the mount of Kieren Fallon.

Over at Chantilly, three of the seven runners for the Prix Jean Prat, which is run over a mile, are trained in either Britain of Ireland. They are the second and third from the St James's Palace Stakes in Zoffany and Neebraas, and the Jersey Stakes winner Strong Suit, who is out to give Richard Hannon a second successive win in the race after Dick Turpin's victory in 2010. Arguably the strongest of the home contingent is the Andre Fabre-trained Mutual Trust, who has an unbeaten record to defend.



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Timeform run the rule over this 10-furlong listed race...


All The Aces was a smart performer for Michael Jarvis in 2009, winning a mile-and-a-half listed races at Newmarket. He hasn't been seen since October of that year (gelded after) and is likely to be ring rusty.

Black Spirit was back on track following a breathing operation when landing a valuable handicap over a mile a year ago. He ran very well when a short-thead second to Kings Gambit over course and distance on his reappearance, but ran poorly in a stronger Group 3 here last time.

Class Is Class is a smart sort who showed he was as good as ever when only beaten a head by City Leader in a mile-and-a-quarter listed race at Goodwood on his reappearance/ His quirky nature was again in evidence that day.

Emirates Champion is a lightly-raced and progressive performer. He won two handicaps at Meydan much earlier this year and will hold every chance of landing the hat-trick is bringing that level of form back to turf.

Fallen Idol won a handicap and a listed race over a mile ere last year/ This is only his sixth start and she should say, but he does need to up his game to make a winning return and Tazeez is arguably a stronger contender for the stable.

Forte dei Marmi was a typical improver for this yard in 2010, winning four of his six starts, including a course-and-distance handicap. He ran his best race this year third third in a Chester Group 3 in May and can be excused his latest defeat when meeting trouble.

Jet Away made big strikes in his first season and resumed his progressed when winning a three-runner minor event at Lingfield in May. He didn't build on that in a better race next time, but it's still relatively early days.

Prince Siegfried is a smart colt around a mile and a quarter, making all in an Epsom minor event last August. He was found wanting at this level at Goodwood in May (Class Is Class second) and is now tried with a visor back on.

Rasmy won a mile maiden at Bath in October 2009 and has improved since, finishing third in the Group 3 Dee Stakes when last seen in May 2010. That long absence suggest all has not been well since (has been gelded).

Tazeez is a talented and consistent front runner who won a Newbury minor event and the Darley Stakes at Newmarket on his final two starts in 2010. He is the highest rated in the line up and there's every chance he'll be involved.

Vesuve improved when landing a mile-and-a-quarter listed race at Ayr in September. Nothing went right when he was last at Epsom on his reappearance in June, and he wears Godolphin's first colours here.


Timeform 1-2-3:

1. Tazeez
2. Emirates Champion
3. Vesuve


Timeform View: There are plenty of reasons to support Tazeez, who didn't run a bad race last year and is easy to forgive his 2011 return when unplaced at Meydan. Godolphin could well have a big say, Emirates Champion and Vesuve just two of many possibilities in a wide-open affair.


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A trio of bets at Haydock...

Red Cape and Tyfos (15:30) both have similar profiles in that they're in-form sprinters who are well treated on last year's form, and in a race that lacks depth, I fully expect them to come to the fore. In the likely event of these two battling it out in the final furlong, I'd prefer to be with Tyfos given his excellent attitude, so he's the selection.

Warlu Way and Butler are less exposed than the others in the mile-and-a-half handicap (17:00), and of that pair the latter appeals as being open to the most improvement. Butler has only been with Luca Cumani for three starts and left the firm impression last time that he'd be suited by a well-run race around this trip, so it's easy to see him defying this mark before going on to better things.

Finally at Haydock, Hot Spice stands out a mile in the last (17:30). He's a lightly-raced three year old who shaped well on his reappearance and is bound to be suited by today's longer trip, so it would be a bit of a surprise were he not to improve past today's rivals.


Recommendations:

All at Haydock

Back Tyfos @ 4.4 15:30
Back Butler @ 3.85 17:00
Back Hot Spice @ 3.7 17:30


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Jamie Lynch gives his views of the big clash between So You Think and Workforce at Sandown on Saturday...


We're so spoilt this star-studded Flat season that, compared to what's to come, the big match-up between Workforce and So You Think seems like Ola Afolabi versus Terry Dunstan. No, I'd never heard of them either until I looked it up, but London-born Afolabi slugging it out with 42-year-old Dunstan is the undercard to the Haye-Klitschko rumble, though that particular rumble is closer to call than the true sporting heavyweight clash of the year at Goodwood in four weeks, when Frankel will do to Canford Cliffs what Pacquiao did to Hatton.

In the Timeform weigh-in, there's not a single pound between Workforce and So You Think, their rating exactly the same, but achieved in very different ways. Workforce needs no Michael Buffer-style introduction, as we know all about him in these parts, the powerful and spirited British Bulldog who showed the French a thing or two by capturing their Arc, whereas So You Think is Russell Crowe in Cinderella Man, the sexy Aussie with an Irish accent, only slightly less sexy after his bubble was burst at Royal Ascot.

When they're so evenly matched on ability, external factors count for double; principally trip, ground and tactics. Your guess is as good as mine regards tactics, but there's a good sub-plot here with both prizefighters having cornermen in the guise of pacemakers, only both want different things, and you can bet that while Jan Vermeer's rider will be keen not to repeat the Royal Ascot mistake by going too fast, he may not have much chance or choice given Confront's duty is to ensure that the race tests stamina more than speed in order to play to Workforce's strengths.

However, the trip and ground are two factors beyond influence, betting without God or Andrew Cooper, and the trip and ground are what tip the scales in the favour of So You Think. He may not be a better horse than Workforce, but all the evidence suggests that he's a faster horse, and a mile and a quarter on good or firmer ground makes it very much a home tie for So You Think.

Longchamp in October is the territory of Workforce, while the Breeders' Cup Turf would be as close as we get to middle ground and a neutral venue, but prevailing conditions this Saturday are tailor-made for So You Think, and if he doesn't beat Workforce here he never will. There'll be the odd contrary pundit who'll say 'it's not just a two-horse race,' but it is. Yes, a peak-form Snow Fairy would give them a race, with the fillies' allowance, but it's extremely doubtful we'll see a peak-form Snow Fairy after the setbacks that have delayed her comeback time and again.

Spare a thought for Ryan Moore, the regular rider of Workforce, Snow Fairy and, more recently, So You Think. Nobody knows better than him who's going to win the Eclipse. Of course, being contracted to Stoute and Workforce, he'd never say, but put him in a room with Derren Brown for five minutes and we might find out what he really thinks, and I think even he thinks So You Think.


Recommended Bet

Back So You Think for the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown on Saturday


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Three selections for Wednesday's evening meeting at Kempton from the Timeform Free Form Website.


Final Liberation (18.50) looked a different proposition at Lingfield at the weekend and can follow up for Sir Mark Prescott. Quickly leaving behind a disappointing handicap debut at Redcar, Final Liberation was sent on by Stevie Donohoe early on Saturday and found plenty to see off his rivals, the step up to a mile and a half looking right up his street. He looks just the type who will keep on improving for a good while yet for his yard and should shrug off a penalty this evening.

The feature race is a class 3 stayers' handicap and Phoenix Flight (20.50) can land the spoils for a second successive year. Like last season, Phoenix Flight arrives on the back of an excellent effort, this time having chased home Veiled in the Ascot Stakes a fortnight ago. He's just 3 lb higher here and can see off Regal Park and the progressive Danvilla.

King Ferdinand (21.20) can get back on the up switched to polytrack in the final race of the day. He didn't improve as was predicted on his handicap debut at Pontefract earlier in the month, but wouldn't be the first horse not to take to that track, so could be worth giving the benefit of the doubt to down in grade, particularly as the form of his earlier win at Chester has worked out so well. Muffraaj and Bertiewhittle chased Andrew Balding's charge home on that occasion and they've both won since, the latter defying a mark of 79 on Saturday for his second handicap success.


Recommendations

All at Kempton

Back Final Liberation @ 3.5 18.50
Back Phoenix Flight @ 5.8 20.50
Back King Ferdinand @ 2.8 21.20


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Timeform look back at the weekend's best racing...


The main event so far as British racing is concerned last weekend took place at Newcastle where Europe's most valuable staying handicap, the Northumberland Plate, went the way of the Reg Hollinshead-trained Tominator, who relished a truly-run race at two miles, travelling smoothly to beat Montaff by a length and three quarters. The card at Newcastle opened with the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes over six furlongs, which provided Roger Charlton's Genki with a first pattern-race success.

Newmarket also played host to a good-quality meeting on Saturday and the feature event there was the Group 3 Criterion Stakes over seven furlongs. The Richard Hannon-trained Libranno came out on top, showing a likeable attitude, though it must be said that things did work out ideally for him. The two listed races on the card were won by Lily's Angel and Jukebox Jury respectively, though perhaps more notable were the wins of Dominant, who looks ready for pattern company after producing a smart performance to win the Tattersalls Millions Cup, and Godolphin's Burj Nahar, who bolted up in the 10-furlong handicap on just his second career start.

Saturday's Group 1 action took place on the Curragh where Misty For Me won the Pretty Polly Stakes by six lengths from the odds-on favourite Midday, though she certainly benefited from a rather soft lead. The better performance in the other two pattern races on the card at the Curragh was that of the Ed Dunlop-trained Red Cadeaux, who won the 14-furlong Curragh Cup by nine lengths.

Back on the Curragh on Sunday, there's no doubting that the highlight was the Irish Derby, in which Treasure Beach, the runner-up in the equivalent race at Epsom, went one better to lead home a 1-2-3 for Aidan O'Brien, who was saddling his sixth successive winner (and ninth overall) of the race. Carlton House, who went off favourite, was somewhat disappointing, running a bit below his Epsom form to finish fourth.

Though the Irish Derby remained with the home team, the Richard Hannon-trained juvenile Lilbourne Lad struck for the British raiding party, winning the Group 2 Railway Stakes, and he'll reportedly have a Group 1 next on his agenda, probably the Prix Morny at Deauville.


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Timeform go through the runners for this handicap chase...


War Party improved in blinkers to win handicap chases here and at Sedgefield in the autumn. He has continued the good work this year, winning (albeit fortunately) over hurdles last month and running a cracker back over fences at Aintree last time.

Storm of Applause's last win came in November 2009 over two miles at Ffos Las. He got back to that sort of form when second three times last season, but needs to put a modest run at Worcester last time behind him.

Knight Legend is a hardy veteran who resumed winning ways in a two-and-a-half-mile selling hurdle at Fakenham in April. He has shown his versatility with another chase victory since but has work to do on these terms even if his jumping holds up.

Viable is a free-going sort whose four wins have all come on right-handed tracks. He was disputing second when unseating at the last in a 17-furlong handicap here last time, but has never been an easy one to catch right.

Health Is Wealth is an Irish point winner who was thriving over fences in the spring, racking up a hat-trick in handicaps at Plumpton. He was below form here last time, but is still young and there's every chance this return to two and a half miles will suit.

Life of A Luso has improved for his current stable, winning twice at Newton Abbot last month and looking set to go in again in a novice here only to fall at the last. He has gone up another 7 lb, but can't be dismissed in his present mood.

Gaelic Flight has a good strike rate over fences down the years and has tasted success in points this spring. The return to a longer trip here will suit but his handicap mark may need to come down a bit more.


Timeform 1-2-3:

1. War Party
2. Health Is Wealth
3. Life of A Luso


Timeform View: War Party makes plenty of appeal despite top weight after his improved effort in a better race at Aintree, but fellow youngsters Health Is Wealth and Life of A Luso are also on the upgrade and seem sure to run him close.


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Simon Rowlands reflects on last week's racing from the perspective of Timeform's handicappers...


There was no Pour Moi storming up the outside to grab victory in the dying strides, but in many other respects the Irish Derby was a matter of "déjà vu" where The Derby at Epsom is concerned.

The second, third, fourth, fifth and tenth from Epsom reopposed at the Curragh, and Treasure Beach, denied by just a head by Pour Moi at Epsom, came out on top again, winning the Irish Derby for Aidan O'Brien for the sixth year in a row.

There were fairly slender margins between the principals, as at Epsom, and Treasure Beach merely confirmed his pre-race rating of 123 in winning by three-quarters of a length from Seville (rated 122). The former's figure is slightly below the recent standard for winners of the race.

Treasure Beach had Memphis Tennessee (rated 120 in both races) two places and a very similar margin back again. The disappointment of the race was arguably Carlton House - a length and a half ahead of Seville in the Dante and third at Epsom despite things not having gone entirely his way - who ran 2 lb below his Derby figure on 120.

That horses cannot be expected to return the same figure from race to race - that they progress, regress, have good days and have bad days - may be illustrated by the fact that Treasure Beach was beaten in a nursery at two years. He is a good deal better than that now, of course.

Native Khan was another to dip below his peak, beating only one home in a field of eight. Nonetheless, his efforts and those of Dubawi Gold since the Two Thousand Guineas at Newmarket on balance have led to that race being reduced by 1 lb.

123 was also the rating posted by Misty For Me in beating Midday in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes the day before the Irish Derby. The pace was slow (time slower than for a maiden later on the card), and the winner was best placed to take advantage of it, but a six-length defeat of her rival still goes down as an improved effort. Her new rating is 5 lb higher than that she recorded in winning the Irish 1000 Guineas.

The Form Book will have Sarafina down as just a neck better than Cirrus des Aigles in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, also run at the weekend, but the truth is that she is probably a good deal more superior to her rival than that. Cirrus des Aigles got the run of things from the front and Sarafina did well to get up in the dying strides. The horses' ratings remain on 126 (Sarafina) and 121 (Cirrus des Aigles).

Sarafina was third to Workforce in last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and would have to improve only 2 lb to 3 lb to win an average running of that race in receipt of her fillies' allowance.

It was a quiet week, post-Royal Ascot, on the British front, and two of the most notable performances by British-based horses came on the undercards at the Curragh.

Lilbourne Lad gained a workmanlike success in the Railway Stakes by three-quarters of a length from Tough As Nails, running to 110 (4 lb below the rating of the leading juvenile, Bapak Chinta), while Red Cadeaux posted a 117 in winning a substandard Curragh Cup by nine lengths.

Hamish McGonagall (rated 118) looked like striking another blow for the raiding party for a long way in the Sapphire Stakes but was passed at the death by Invincible Ash (rated 114). Sectionals confirm the visual impression that the former and Inxile went faster than ideal early on.


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Selections for Pontefract and Windsor make up Monday's trio of bets...


Mick Channon has two of the remaining three runners in the third race on this afternoon's Pontefract card, but neither have the potential of Sans Loi. Alan McCabe's juvenile created a big impression when justifying strong market support in a maiden at Nottingham over this trip earlier in the month, quickening clear in good style, and he's a confident selection to bounce back after finding the Group-race intensity of the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot just too much for him last time.

The next race is a different scenario, with a bigger field of sprint handicappers, but the case is just as compelling for the Sir Michael Stoute's Entitled, who makes plenty of appeal at 3.25. She's up against several progressive rivals, not least James Fanshawe's Mosaicist, but the manner in which Ryan Moore's mount cut through the field at York (after a slow start) to catch the thriving Collect Art suggests she's well capable of following up from today's 8 lb higher mark.

Miss Topsy Turvy was still green when staying on powerfully to score at Salisbury last month, the style of that success suggesting she was a three-year-old to keep on side, but things went awry at Nottingham last time when the John Dunlop-trained runner lost all chance with a slow start. Clearly after that there is a certain element of risk attached with supporting her at Windsor tonight, but if she breaks on terms this time she'll soon be trading a lot shorter than 5.8.


Recommendations

Back Sans Loi @ 2.02 Pontefract 15.15
Back Entitled @ 3.25 Pontefract 15.45
Back Miss Topsy Turvy @ 5.8 Windsor 20.40


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