TimeformBlog

Simon Rowlands reflects on last week's racing from the perspective of Timeform's handicappers...


There was no Pour Moi storming up the outside to grab victory in the dying strides, but in many other respects the Irish Derby was a matter of "déjà vu" where The Derby at Epsom is concerned.

The second, third, fourth, fifth and tenth from Epsom reopposed at the Curragh, and Treasure Beach, denied by just a head by Pour Moi at Epsom, came out on top again, winning the Irish Derby for Aidan O'Brien for the sixth year in a row.

There were fairly slender margins between the principals, as at Epsom, and Treasure Beach merely confirmed his pre-race rating of 123 in winning by three-quarters of a length from Seville (rated 122). The former's figure is slightly below the recent standard for winners of the race.

Treasure Beach had Memphis Tennessee (rated 120 in both races) two places and a very similar margin back again. The disappointment of the race was arguably Carlton House - a length and a half ahead of Seville in the Dante and third at Epsom despite things not having gone entirely his way - who ran 2 lb below his Derby figure on 120.

That horses cannot be expected to return the same figure from race to race - that they progress, regress, have good days and have bad days - may be illustrated by the fact that Treasure Beach was beaten in a nursery at two years. He is a good deal better than that now, of course.

Native Khan was another to dip below his peak, beating only one home in a field of eight. Nonetheless, his efforts and those of Dubawi Gold since the Two Thousand Guineas at Newmarket on balance have led to that race being reduced by 1 lb.

123 was also the rating posted by Misty For Me in beating Midday in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes the day before the Irish Derby. The pace was slow (time slower than for a maiden later on the card), and the winner was best placed to take advantage of it, but a six-length defeat of her rival still goes down as an improved effort. Her new rating is 5 lb higher than that she recorded in winning the Irish 1000 Guineas.

The Form Book will have Sarafina down as just a neck better than Cirrus des Aigles in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, also run at the weekend, but the truth is that she is probably a good deal more superior to her rival than that. Cirrus des Aigles got the run of things from the front and Sarafina did well to get up in the dying strides. The horses' ratings remain on 126 (Sarafina) and 121 (Cirrus des Aigles).

Sarafina was third to Workforce in last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and would have to improve only 2 lb to 3 lb to win an average running of that race in receipt of her fillies' allowance.

It was a quiet week, post-Royal Ascot, on the British front, and two of the most notable performances by British-based horses came on the undercards at the Curragh.

Lilbourne Lad gained a workmanlike success in the Railway Stakes by three-quarters of a length from Tough As Nails, running to 110 (4 lb below the rating of the leading juvenile, Bapak Chinta), while Red Cadeaux posted a 117 in winning a substandard Curragh Cup by nine lengths.

Hamish McGonagall (rated 118) looked like striking another blow for the raiding party for a long way in the Sapphire Stakes but was passed at the death by Invincible Ash (rated 114). Sectionals confirm the visual impression that the former and Inxile went faster than ideal early on.


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