Tennis
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It's Aussie Open time! The plan is for this to be a weekly thread with just tennis talk: match talk, current events in tennis etc. Spamming (including muggy politics talk) and other sports talk can be done elsewhere such as the usual megathreads, current one is called Spam/OT thread. Good luck with this tournament and remember: #sleepisfortheweak
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2nd best slam behind the French Open.
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this covers both weeks or just week one.
(btw, like these threads, good job) |
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both. thanks.
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looking at some odds while going through the draw. Should Nadal really be fave to win the third quarter in places and Zverev 9s is great odds too.
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Monday: Sunny, Max 31
Tuesday: Hot, cool change evening, Max 38 In her first stroke of luck this year, Broady's first round match has been provisionally scheduled late evening after Dimitrov on Margret court. Downside: Wind picking up (Northwesterly)  Wednesday: Early showers, Max 22 40% chance of rain in the morning apparently. Thursday: Rain, Max 24 80% of rain,up to 8mm, from afternoon onward. Friday: Next to no rain, Max 22 60% chance of rain, but only 0-1mm expected source: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml |
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count me in if you're banning all the wrestling, MMA, and sh1.tty american sports cr@p
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2NxuihWgAA8LyS.jpg
Some real mug picks here imo. |
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Starting to understand why Pliskova is so short if so many people are picking her to win. Her draw is very bad for her imo. I won't be surprised if she loses in the first few rounds. And even then I don't see her beating Aga in the QF's.
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*courts
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Nobody in the first 3 rounds is going to trouble Pliskova too much, maybe Niculescu that's it, but it's not a bad draw
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Niculescu owned Pliskova easily the last 2 times they played.
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I don't think she will like slice muggers as she doesn't like bending her knees.
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KaPlis beat her in the Fed cup in the last match and before that you're going back 3 and 5 years (latter in a ITF), Pliskova in the last 12 months is not the same as 3 and 5 yeras ago
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It's not so much that I think Niculescu definitely beats her anyway. It's that do I really see her beating all of Niculescu, Ostapenko/Putintseva, a load of possibles in R4 then Aga. And the answer is no really.
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I wouldn't back her at evens to beat Aga alone.
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And Aga's draw is a complete joke in comparison. Given the seeds in her section are Vesnina, Stosur, Cornet.
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I think we are heading for the ever dreaded Radwanska vs Serena SF.
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you should get great odds on Niculescu in that matchup.
I think it makes sense that the odds on KaPlis and Konta have shortened the most since they have been the most impressive players in the build-up, odds on KaPlis probably a little too short though, should be closer to 15. |
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Problem I have, while that is true Caramba. It feels a little false, in that they didn't play a lot to do it. There's not been many matches that define the AO. The most impressive thing was Konta destroying Aga, but her draw is very bad tbh. I might have fancied Konta for a run in other sections, but not in that section.
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On destroying Aga, we've seen players do it before, it's impressive, but it's much easier to do that vs Aga who gives you a chance to play and gives you time on the ball if you are on than even say Cibulkova who is a possible R4 opponent for Konta.
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The first 3 rounds for her are pretty straightforward, if she meets Gavrilova I think she'll lose, but rounds are almost as soft as it gets.
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first 3 rounds are soft*
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The value outright has to be somewhere top half anyway. I was looking for Svitolina's name in the outright, but she's way shorter than I thought she would be already. Maybe I was foolish in thinking she might be 100 or something.
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Halep is longer than I would expect given her draw, even though I don't fancy her at all. She was like half this price before the season started. She lost to Siniakova, but her draw here is very good. I don't trust her at all anymore, but won't be surprised if she shortens a lot after a few rounds.
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Especially true as I'm not sure it will just be Kerber cruising out of the section above her, which would cause her price to crash quite a lot, before her inevitable mugging vs someone.
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I like Kuzzy's draw but nobody talks about her because she's old, not in vogue and usually loses in the first week, I am expecting a Kerber shock, don't be surprised if she;s KO R1 to Tsurenko
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Problem is so many players are missing it removes such a % of the market that the outsiders in favourable sections of the draw are much shorter than normal anyway. I'm pretty sure most these players would be like double this price normally.
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It's hard to even advocate Radwanska. In that I think she will make the SF's, but what's the point in backing her. You need Serena to lose before the SF's or she will still be like 12s before the SF's. I'd rather just hope Pliskova makes the QF and you get a mug price on Radwanska (which I am expecting tbh, I think market will go Pliskova favourite).
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Konta's price has to be totally dreadful given her draw. How short is she really going to be to beat Woz? I am thinking like 1.8. And that's in R3 (Woz plays total mugs first 2 rounds). After that probably Cibulkova, but maybe Makarova. You basically need Serena to lose in the first 4 rounds to get anything out of this price, otherwise it is absolutely dreadful.
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Would they really go Kaplis v aga favourite with a 0-7 record
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Yes. She is like 3x shorter outright and is like 2/1 to win the quarter vs 3/1 for Aga, and Aga must be like 1/2 to make the QF's.
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Btw Pliskova was favourite either last time or the time before they played. The one on grass where she won 3 games, she was favourite to win that.
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Radwanska was favourite in all 3 of those match, masters cup and Stuttgart she was 1.4,
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Lol that was 5 times ago looking at H2H.
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The odds on matchstat are wrong for starting odds. Pretty sure Pliskova was like 1.9 on here at start of match.
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Anyway the end result is the same, the H2H is total ownage, but I don't see how the market can have these odds if Pliskova isn't going to start favourite in the match. Even with Pliskova being artificially short by getting backed in outright due to form where people pay no attention to actual draw.
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It's like Nadal-Raonic, same outright, milos fav to win quarter, if they met, Nadal would start favourite, in Brisbane he was about 1.6 opening odds although he lost. If Plis started fav that is a value lay
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