stoozbet

I’m putting up these selections as early as 8am in some cases & trying to predict what the likely start price is going to be for a horse some 8 hours later, this isn’t the easiest of tasks! In the case of yesterdays selected trading horse Macdillon I advised that a drift from current available book prices (6.5) was practically certain & it was very easy for anyone to have got on at 10.5 or 10.0 close to the off which would have given you a full 1 point trade as he hit 6.0 in running. As it was the Industry Start Price (the price you would have received if you backed with a best odds bookie) was 9.0 meaning that only a 30%/0.6 point profit was available & that’s what was recorded in the results.

I regularly say that is best to back with a best odds guaranteed book maker which will partially protect you against a drift. My philosophy with this blog is that it’s a trading project to help identify races where we can profit from the shape of a race and hopefully make a profit for followers on a regular basis. Part of that means that everyone should be able to follow if at all possible hence I’ve been posting the lay off prices should you back at the prices available at the books which is often lower than that available on Betfair. With horses that are drifting from their early prices it becomes more difficult because I can only advise that the horse is likely to drift but I can’t be sure of how far it will go. I’ll continue to post advised trades even if the horse is drifting & will record results to the ISP but be aware that with some focus on how the market is trading before the off you will be able to achieve a better price than the ISP which will make the trade easier.

The closer I get to the start of a race before the off the more likely I am to place my back bet with Betfair because the main benefit of using a bookie, the protection from the BOG concession to protect me from a major drift, becomes less relevant.

So after that essay on to todays 1st selection…

In the 14.50 at Nottingham we have a 7 year old mare Quaroma who has only visited a racecourse 3 times in 2012. Towards the end of the flat racing season this can actually be a plus as many of the battle-hardened handicappers are starting to feel the affects of a hard seasons racing & will be relishing a break from competition.

Quaroma in her 3 previous races this season has competed in handicaps a class above the race she is entered in today & has traded to at least 50% of her Betfair start price each time. Eased in the weights for not winning & down in class it’s easy to make a case for her trading short in play again today.

She has a smooth traveling style but will be coming from the rear again so our trade may come late (if it doesn’t come pre-race).  The faster they go up front the easier they will come back to her & her class may just get her home. Hold up horses often need luck in running to win but when they travel behind the leaders with promise they don’t need luck to trade short.

Quaroma is available to back now for 2 points at 9.0 with the books (William Hill/Stan James/Coral) & 9.2 on here, if you’re looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7.

Best of luck.

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Macdillon runs today in the 15.00 at Wolverhampton and he’s a solid handicapper who’s been running with credit all season in very similar types of races. He’s been available to trade in his last 5 outings in this grade and in 4 of those races he was partnered with todays jockey Liam Keniry.

He likes to sit behind the pace setters and travels into his races very strongly. Last time out at Sandown his run looked perfectly timed to get the victory but for a swooping move around the outside by another runner that may have been out of sight of the jockey & therefore was not covered off. That day he was beaten into 2nd but the signs were all there that a win may not be far away.

This looks a slightly better race for the grade but it allows Macdillon to race off a lower weight and if he can translate his smooth traveling style to the all weather of Wolverhampton his price should drop as we get into the final furlong to give us a trade.

Macdillon is currently being taken on by the layers in the early morning business so a drift from the current book prices of 6.5 looks certain, he's been laid above 8.0 on betfair already. I wouldn't want to be getting on at any less than 8.0 with a further drift very possible.

If you back Macdillon for 2 points at 8.0. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Sorry the back prices can't be more defined, just get the best price you can & revise your lay off prices accordingly.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.50 at Bath there are 2 horses to be interested in for trading purposes although for slightly different reasons. The first is Dynamic Duo and the 2nd is Pandorica. Dynamic Duo finally won a maiden race in august & ran well to finish 2nd back in a handicap last time out. With Richard Hughes on board you can see a large amount of money coming for this horse before the off in the shops all over the country & the bookies are well aware of this currently going no bigger than 5.5 when he's available at 6.2 on Betfair.

However Dynamic Duo is likely to be ridden from the front and that gives us a problem because Bath is a track with a strong pace bias towards horses coming from off the pace. It's for this reason that I've passed over Dynamic Duo and chosen a horse to trade for us at a much bigger price in the form of Pandorica.

The 1st word that timeform use to describe Pandorica is "consistent" which is always a big plus in my book. She's currently in the form of her life and as such as been available to trade in 5 of her last 6 races with the time she didn't trade being in a class above todays race. She can be riden from the front but hold up tactics can also be used with her to great effect as she travels into her races very strongly. Today I'd expect her to be held up in mid-field before making ground between 3-2f and being delivered with her chance. She's often the last off the bridle so if that's the case today then her price should drop enough to give us a trade.

There is a question mark today about the ground being too firm for Pandorica to show her best, on the balance of things I'm still putting her up for a trade.

Pandorica can be backed now for 2 points at a drifting 10.0 at the books (sportingbet, I'm expecting others to push her out soon too) and 11.0* on betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 7.2 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 6.4 to give you a 1 point profit all round.

Best of luck

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Liberty Island. 8.0 down to 4.8. +1 point
Alkadi. 5.5 down to 1.31. +1 point
My Sharona. 5.5 down to 3.9. +0.6 point
Flashbang. 7.0 down to 2.2. +1 point
Inffiraaj. 8.5 down to 5.3. +1 point
Snow Bay. 9.0 down to 5.2. +1 point
Wellingrove. 4.3 down to 3.2. Partial match at 30% profit lay off price but still counting as a -2 points loss.
Annelko. 5.0 down to 2.36. + 1 point
Descaro. 11.0 down to 8.0. +0.6 point
Spartan Spirit. 13.0 down to 4.2. +1 point
Tha'ir. 8.0 down to 5.9. Partial match at 30% profit lay off price but still counting as a -2 points loss.
Centrifugal. 6.0 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Expert Fighter. 11.0 down to 3.4. +1 point
Kaafel. 10.0 down to 5.0. +1 point
My Sharona. 6.0 down to 2.0. +1 point
Welease Bwian. 5.0 down to 2.0. +1 point
Pira Palace. 6.4 & WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Desert Romance. 5.95 down to 3.8. + 1 point
Alkadi. No trade. -2 points
Ghost Protocal. 8.0 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. + 1 point
Set To Music. 7.5 down to 4.0. +1 point
Darkening. 8.0 down to 3.0. +1 point
Ladys First. 11.0 down to 7.0. +1 point
Den Maschine. 7.0 down to 1.25. +1 point
Rosdhu Queen. 6.0 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Kathleen Frances. 11.0 down to 4.6. +1 point

Total = 16.2 points

26 selections, 23 traded, 3 didn't trade, strike rate 88.46%, ROI 31%

If you didn't trade & just punted the selections then we had 4 winners. If you had punted £1 one on each of them then you would be showing a profit of 40p! So distinctly break even, so whilst last month you would have showed a larger profit by just punting rather than trading it was just a "lucky" month and September's trading profits have more than made up for it.

Clearly it's been a good month but still frustrating, of the 3 reversals that we had, 2 of them were partial matches for small amounts so I counted them as losses and the other (Alkadi) was a race with 3 significant non runners after I put up advised prices making the horse needing to go incredibly low to trade after rule 4 deductions. So I'm not joking when I say that it could have been a 100% month with every single horse trading.

Thanks to everyone who's got in touch & said they are following on twitter. It really does help to make the form study easier.

Be lucky,

Stoozbet

In the 16.30 at Epsom we have a mare (Kathleen Frances) with an incredible trading record on turf. She's been available to trade in all 18 of her last 18 races on turf. In that time she had 1 outing on the AW at Kempton which didn't go to plan but as a horse who's best form is on soft of heavy ground it can very easily be overlooked.

Kathleen Frances is usually held up towards the rear half of the field before making ground throughout the middle part of the race & is then delivered with her chance with around 2f to run. She's also proven that she handles the unique test that is Epsom very well and last time she ran here she was able to make the most ground around Tattenham Corner where the other horses struggle to maintain their balance.

A very useful claimer has been booked today in the form of Adam Beschizza so connections may feel that today is the day & hopefully we can expect a big run which should at least give us a trade.

Kathleen Frances can be backed for 2 points at 11.0 right now with the books (betvictor, ladbrokes), if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.0 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0.

Best of luck.

To be alerted whenever a blog is published just follow on twitter.com/stoozbet

The 1st of 2 cracking Group 1 races today is the 14.35 at Newmarket and it contains some progressive types who were mighty impressive last time out.  The favourite Maureen is entitled to be at the head of the market and she may well win but I think we can find a trading proposition elsewhere.

The fillie that interests me is the 2 year old William Haggas trained Rosdhu Queen. She’s only visited a racecourse 3 times but she is undefeated to date and last time out in a group 2 race she jumped out and made all with a very willing attitude to keep finding in the final strides and pull nearly 2 lengths clear of the field.

The going that day was officially described as good to firm but there was rain on that afternoon and the race was ran in a shower so it leads me to think that she may like it with a little more cut which todays “good” surface at Newmarket should have following some rain yesterday.

We’re also getting a decent price about Rosdhu Queen to trade from & I think that if she jumps out at the front she can stay there long enough & get her opponents off the bridle before she is which should drop her price at least enough for a trade. Her willing attitude means that even if it does come down to a fight in the final furlong she is the type you want to have in your corner.

Rosdhu Queen can be backed now for 2 points at 6.0 at the books and 6.2 on here. If you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.5 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.9.

Best of luck.

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If you were a layer would you like to take on a horse with form figures reading 2111212 ?

Nope, me neither but tonight in the 18.45 at Wolverhampton the layers are determined to take on Den Maschine pushing him out from 4.6 to 8.0. Whilst he's up in class & also raised 2 lbs for a nose 2nd last time out, the form tells a tale of a horse bang in form who's been improving with every run. Timeform's opinion is that he didn't get home last time out over 2m saying "stamina stretched over 2m last time out" but I'm not sure that I'd 100% agree, he did go clear and was only marginally outstayed, I certainly wouldn't say that he was over-stretched.

Todays race is a drop back in trip to 1m6f so knowing that the horse clearly gets the trip it makes sense for Adam Kirby to make it a strongly run race from the front. These tactics have been used before to great effect but he's also been run just behind the pace. His smooth traveling style means that when he is delivered with his challenge between 3 & 2f from home his price should drop enough to give us a trade.

I'm also of the opinion that the horse is better on a left handed track, last time at Kempton (right handed) he looked to hold his head slightly to his left so returning back to Wolverhampton may make Den Maschine feel more comfortable & let the impressive improvement continue.

So here comes the tricky part, getting on at the right price. There is currently a big gap between the bookies & betfair, the bookies at 5.5 & Betfair hovering between 6.0 & 7.0. This means I can't advise taking a price at the books because a drift at the bookies prices looks certain. If we can get on above 7.0 at the books that would be a much nicer price to take.

If you back Den Maschine for 2 points at 7.0. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.2 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Sorry the back prices can't be more defined, just get the best price you can & revise your lay off prices accordingly.

Best of luck.

To be alerted whenever a blog is published just follow on twitter.com/stoozbet

First of all a big thank you to everyone who has said hi on twitter. It's great to know who's out there & following and nice to have some interaction, it helps keeps me motivated when doing the form study! So on to todays write up..

Ladys First, who runs today in the 13.45 at Newmarket, has been competing in listed events very similar to todays race all season. She's had 6 outings to the track and has been available to trade in 5 of them. Now the one time that she didn't trade was the one time that I have put her put her up previously on this blog! Now never one to hold a grudge I've kept a watching brief but since that day she's come out & ran 2 excellent races finishing 1st & 2nd. In the post mortem I put the lack of a trade that day down to a new jockey being on board. Paul Hannagan has riden Ladys First in 4 of her 6 races this season and he's back in the saddle today so we can be much more confident with a 2 time champion in the cockpit. 

So looking as the form of todays race there is one key line through Ladys First and Dank. 2 times ago they met at Haydock off equal weights and that day Ladys First ran out the winner by 3/4 of a length. Then last time out at Sandown Dank got her revenge by getting up to win by a neck from Ladys First. Today they meet on exactly the same terms (even the same jockeys) and given that these 2 have just been swapping positions & finishing very close to each other then surely they should have the same chance?

No says the market with Dank available at 7.0 & Ladys First available at nearly double the price at 13.0! This should be enough to identify a slice of value and more than enough reasons to welcome Ladys First back in to trade for us.

Ladys First can be backed at a drifting 11.0* and the books (Betvictor, Coral) and at 13.0 on Betfair. if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.0 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0.

*I've put the lay prices for the lower back prices at the books so that everyone can follow if they wish.
Best of luck

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In the nursery at Newmarket (14.35) we have a very headstrong colt running for Godolphin by the name of Darkening. He's only visited the racecourse 4 times but seems to be getting his act together registering a win for the 1st time last time out. That day he gave the impression that he was just toying with the field.

His big purchase price should indicate that Godolphin believe that his breeding suggests he will become a very talented animal and today could be the day he shows that on the racecourse. In his other previous races he has pulled fiercely hard being almost unridable around some bends and in spite of this he was only just touched off by a neck.

Today is the 3rd time in a row that Barzalona takes the ride & the victory last time out suggests that the two are starting to come to an amicable agreement about the best way to get to the finish line. If Darkening gets his act together today then his class should be enough to get us at least our trade.

Darkening can be backed at 8.0 now for 2 points at the books (ladbrokes, coral, etc), if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1.

If a pre race trade becomes available this is most definitely the sort of race that you want to be taking it, when betting on 2 year olds the risk of a wild run is increased so lets get out before the gates open if possible.

Best of luck

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The 15.10 at Newmarket is a race that Her Majesty The Queen will most probably making use of her Racing UK subscription to watch as she saddles 2 runners both with very live chances of winning. In fact I think you could do far worse than to back any royal winner should your friendly neighborhood bookmaker offer you attractive odds.

The one that really interests me for a trade is the mount of Jamie Spencer, the fillie Set To Music. Lets set aside the fact that she’s been available to trade in 9 of her last 10 races meaning she has obvious appeal for a trader. Last time out in a listed race where she started 2/1 favourite the first 2/3rds of the race was ran at a pedestrian crawl and she appeared to have the field covered and traded at even money in play but was beaten by a speedy type in the dash for the line.  With only 7 runners that day you can overlook the defeat due to the tactical nature of the race

The time before that in a Group 2 race at Haydock Set To Music was beaten into 3rd by Great Heavens, a fillie who has since come out to win the Irish Oaks, a Group 1 race.

Make no mistake I believe this fillie to be a group 2 horse running in a listed event today at a very generous price so I think we should fill our boots while we can.

Set To Music can be backed now for 2 points at 7.5 at the book (Stan James) & 7.8 on here, if your looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.5 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.8.

Best of luck.

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