stoozbet

First of all a big thank you to everyone who has said hi on twitter. It's great to know who's out there & following and nice to have some interaction, it helps keeps me motivated when doing the form study! So on to todays write up..

Ladys First, who runs today in the 13.45 at Newmarket, has been competing in listed events very similar to todays race all season. She's had 6 outings to the track and has been available to trade in 5 of them. Now the one time that she didn't trade was the one time that I have put her put her up previously on this blog! Now never one to hold a grudge I've kept a watching brief but since that day she's come out & ran 2 excellent races finishing 1st & 2nd. In the post mortem I put the lack of a trade that day down to a new jockey being on board. Paul Hannagan has riden Ladys First in 4 of her 6 races this season and he's back in the saddle today so we can be much more confident with a 2 time champion in the cockpit. 

So looking as the form of todays race there is one key line through Ladys First and Dank. 2 times ago they met at Haydock off equal weights and that day Ladys First ran out the winner by 3/4 of a length. Then last time out at Sandown Dank got her revenge by getting up to win by a neck from Ladys First. Today they meet on exactly the same terms (even the same jockeys) and given that these 2 have just been swapping positions & finishing very close to each other then surely they should have the same chance?

No says the market with Dank available at 7.0 & Ladys First available at nearly double the price at 13.0! This should be enough to identify a slice of value and more than enough reasons to welcome Ladys First back in to trade for us.

Ladys First can be backed at a drifting 11.0* and the books (Betvictor, Coral) and at 13.0 on Betfair. if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.0 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0.

*I've put the lay prices for the lower back prices at the books so that everyone can follow if they wish.
Best of luck

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