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***Strictly Come Dancing 2025***
***Strictly Come Dancing 2025***
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Replies: 3,747
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I'm hitting my head against a wall here, must be Lou
 She's not good enough to win, and there's no compelling reason to vote for her (to win the OR). Of course, you're entitled to feel differently. |
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I thought it was ok. Bit underwhelming, but Charlestons are rarely saved for the business end of the competition these days. Can't remember any non dancing winners having a breakthrough dance in week 3 so I'm not worried about her chances of winning. If the prods want her to win, she will.
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Who was the last winner who didn't look good enough by week 3?
Nothing is set in stone, but I can't remember the last winner who still looked average at best after 3 dances. Mincey perhaps. |
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Seems the markt largely agrees
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It's context as well, 1920s Charleston in movie week, choreographed by an outside professional is tee'd up for a good week. Seems to me everything was in her favour, production wise. Not like they are creating a 'journey'. Look at the horrendous songs and clobber some of them were forced to dance to/wear. Like I said I thought VP could be getting lined up for the p1mp. Maybe the market is hunting for a contender.
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Stacey was always a great dancer, with limitless charisma, for what it's worth. The problem that year for me was that she started short and only got shorter. I was chasing that series for a good while.
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You said she's got nfc. The odds suggest otherwise. Nearly bottom of the vote tonight, second favorite. This show has made bang average dancers look like decent dancers so I'm not worried about her dancing ability. Bill Bailey, Ore Oduba and Joe McFadden all won the show with no better dancing ability than VP. Not sure why you think why the non touring George is only stopped by injury, but the beauty is we will find out in 2 months.
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Yep, nfc. I haven't changed my stance.
Her market price isn't all that easy to explain, hypothesis is that maybe the market is struggling for likely contenders, or people perceive she has a large voting base due to previous reality tv. Or maybe she's showing up well on social media measures. None of that really bothers me as I don't feel she will be popular enough, or a striking enough dancer to win the OR. Over the many years there have been one or two runners that I thought could win but the price had run away from me. But not the case here, I don't see a route to a VP win, personally. |
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She's only the third best female dancer
There are two young hot males better than her She's not the right fit for SCD Max red |
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Not many mentions for Alex, wonder if she's gonna fly under the radar and is actually the chosen one. Will need plenty of help, but George looks like he's going to be up against it this weekend.
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What is going on with Ellie's price today. Absolute madness.
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Very long odds on that they would go all overboard with her cc, equally so that it would be overmarked and that will be her high watermark on the show.
George now traded odds on. |
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Alex was pretty good as well :)
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Yes, absurd ott reaction from some of the judges and that is counter productive. It does look like they are curating her for the long haul.
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Another interesting elimination heat, that's two now this series!
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Everyone always has runners covered that they have been talking down for the whole series to date [once they go odds on
] It's the rools. Alex is just making up the numbers at this point, but in the running for TF, in my view. Alex is another raging ringer, which is not impossible to overcome, but nothing so far is indicating to me she can (so far). Of course, as with your Vicky love in, you're entitled to hold a different opinion. |
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So I'm lying about having the favourite covered :/ ok he's a massive red
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Ok I'm lying George is a massive red
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The whole series 3 weeks in lol
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You've been going on and on about not being able to tour apparently so can't win, other people are better dancers, and other negatives. Yet in week 4, for you he's still 'covered'. Absolutely bonkers logic, if someone is trading around evens in October, and you have all manner of reasons why they can't win, yet don't have them as a loser when they are taking up half the market
 Only last week you were getting excited about Vicky flip flopping with George. |
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I have him covered yes. Not really hard to understand is it. Just Incase my logic is wrong. I don't think he wins, but I am not silly enough to rule him out. If he goes shorter odds on as we move along I'll lay him off. Easy work.
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Just so we are clear. Vicky and Alex are reds for you?
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It is hard to understand (from a gambler). Let's say the market has George a 50% chance of winning the series, what % chance do you make him personally (since you've been posting on the thread, you've only noted negatives for him) ?
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Maybe I've been influenced by the odds too much. But as I say I'm happy to have him covered at this point. He's not a green. My only greens are Vicky and Alex.
Without producer interference he's the likely winner, However there are plenty of indications he is not a preferred winner. |
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You can't use 'without producer influence' as a get out, as you are apparently convinced that they will stop George. So obviously that is factoring in your analysis. So as things stand, everything considered (including producer influence), what are your percentages?
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You haven't answered my question about Vicky and Alex being reds yet?
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I don't have them red as they haven't gone anywhere near Evens or odds on. I can assure you, if they were, I would be massively red. I gave up laying single runners at long odds against when I got absolutely roasted by Geordie Shore.
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Just now I've been thinking of similar past scenarios, I'm sure there have been numerous. However one that sticks out was Vinnie Big Potatoes. I was convinced that the prods wouldn't let him win, and he was trading similar for a long time I seem to remember. Around evens. I was in deep on him. When they finally turned on him, it was one of the best moments in reality history for me (as a gambler and a viewer!).
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Fav binned after all. Interesting late trading on here to say the least.
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I wonder if we'll finally see the odds on favorite tackle a party latin this weekend?
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likely 3 way final makes it very difficult for your Vicky to even get to there. Possibly an advantage to the remaining female, should it fall that way. Though how they treated Amber on Saturday was very smelly.
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Alex & Johannes - Foxtrot to Here You Come Again by Dolly Parton
Amber & Nikita - Cha-Cha-Cha to Break Free by Ariana Grande Balvinder & Julian - Quickstep to Texas Hold 'Em by Beyonce Ellie & Vito - Salsa to Spice Girls Medley George & Alexis - Jive to As It Was by Harry Styles Harry & Karen - Argentine Tango to Caught Up by Usher Jimmy & Lauren - American Smooth to Purple Rain by Prince Karen & Carlos - Rumba to Think Twice by Celine Dion La Voix & Aljaz - Salsa to Strong Enough by Cher Lewis & Katya - Quickstep to Ring of Fire by Johnny Cash Vicky & Kai - Couple's Choice to Fight for This Love by Cheryl Cole |
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Extremely difficult to make the final without getting in a dance off if not vote topping, with a 3 way final. I can't think of any runner that will get to the final that Vicky would beat in a dance off. Can you? If so, name them.
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Alex will undoubtedly have topped the vote last weekend. Maybe they plan to cut her adrift in the latter stages, and influencing a vote carry over to Vicky. As I say im not fully certain which one of the 2 is the preference at the moment. On comments, id say Vicky probably has the edge.
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