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Eurovision 2025
Eurovision 2025
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Replies: 593
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SWE LPM = FIN LPM = 7. Flip flop incoming.
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I think they're both real Lifter, not AI (but I stand to be proved wrong).
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Drift reversed for time being. Not awful imo but not winning.
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May not even win MF.
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Yeah, the consensus on Twitter, after seeing the rehearsals, is that he is not winning ESC. Complete contrast to when they heard Loreen. Still 6.2... Finland now into 6.8 wow
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Buying more France and portugal as I always do
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They've gottabe value as SWE is still fav but wouldn't you like to hear FRA first? It might be sh1t. Look how Mans-who-can-do-no-wrong-robot turned out.
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I trust Louane and the French delegation more, to be honest. She's a much bigger star outside of Eurovision circles. There is risk there, but if Finland is sub 7s, then France could be evens by March 16th
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I think nearly all others will be 100s in a few weeks time
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While it is concentrated within the ESC fandom, I do find some carry over from the ESCyounited vote and actual performance. Nearly 50% of forum users have given lithuania 12 points, and it seems to be a fav on other social media, too. Plus, the Jury vote should be solid. 50/1 seems decent value
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I love LIT. I thought it was just me, but the fans do seem to be connecting with it. Even those who don't like Indie Rock. So it has something
Not really feeling POR. Agree with you on FRA though lifter. Let's just hope the song is good. FIN very good too |
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Mans proven to be AI, lyric mismatch, taught me something about AI at least. LIT has grown on me but not to back, maybe T10. Are you in love with Louane Lifter? Have you finally found some love for Erika?
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We have to wait a bit longer for that flip flop.
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Love is a strong word. So yes
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just looking for some quality in this weak line-up
I still can't see much of a song with Erika. It's a great show, though. Perhaps I've made a mistake not backing her, but I'm certainly not with these odds. Not covering at 17s or so was a mistake |
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Her odds now are not for me either even though she likely wins imo. Talking of poor odds what do you think of Sweden?
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Very polarising reports from those that have heard Mans song. Seems to be a sequel to heroes. Not disimilar to the first Loreen reports where many said it wouldn't work in 2023, but alas it crushed the jury vote coming first and nigh on doubling the points of the runner up, and came 2nd with public.
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We'll see what happens when the snippets come out. I remember there being a short Loreen leak, and most people thinking "yeah, this is it." Also, willing to bet Mans gets over 270 jury points regardless of how good the song is
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Azer song, just released
www.youtube.com/watch?v=upbiPJ9uA70 T10 prolly. |
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That's the problem Lifter. Tattoo in 2023 is never getting anywhere near 340 jury points (basically double that of its closest jury opponent) if it had been representing North Macedonia opposed to Sweden. It makes the Eurovision markets even more of a minefield.
For example if you backed Italy in 2015 that year they got the highest public vote score ever (% wise) but were still beaten by Sweden as the jury all got behind Heroes giving it 363 jury points. I would personally much prefer to be betting on the televoting only market though sadly that gets relatively very little liquidity. |
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Mans - https://x.com/eschalley/status/1892457182488035808 sounds very cringe
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Yes, very cringe. Not winning anything.
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I'd be interested (and grateful for) any insights into the Ukraine price movements.
And if it also triggers general comments & insights on ESC market movements when the event is still months away, all the better. It's the move up from 20 to 100 that sparked my initial interest, was it news on Ukraine's entry? or an adjustment to the market on news not relating to Ukraine and this is a bit of fall out from that? Thanks in advance for your discussions.  |
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Combination of the song and poltics.
Song inital price due to the war, then price started drifitng due to rumours of peace talks, then the song was chosen and price went to 100/1, and now Trump is going full out against Ukraine |
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Basically, Ukraine's entry is very bad, and the worst they have sent for a decade maybe. Buttttt the market is conscious of what happened a few years ago when Ukraine got a clean sweep on the televote.
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What lifter says. UKR likely to get a big solidarity vote if Eurovision was tomorrow. But who knows what sort of agreement might or might not have been agreed by May
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Basically the drift came about as the song is not good enough. Last year's entry was brilliant but still went out to 30-40 on the day iirc. It's currently tumbling back in because of DJTs attack on Zelensky and the prospect of Ukraine giving up lots of pressure as America seemingly is saddling up with Putin and that causing an European wide solidarity vote behind Ukraine as in the year it won.
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Finland 7s, Sweden/Mans 8s - I'd actually prefer to back Sweden at those odds. That said, day 20 of me piling into Portugal
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Mans song is quite "meh" and very cringe, but the ending is quite powerful. Full song - https://x.com/vodimtenigranku/status/1892533202842951721
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The Estonia crash is interesting. Settled mid 20s after qualifying and now into single figures.
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Going a bit viral now. I’ve seen a couple esc bettors suggest 300 pv points. Just some of them getting carried away I think
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cos it's brill
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Estonia is the easiest and most fun to sing along to. Family friendly.
Finland, the winner, has the impact, but it's not much of a singalong go song except the title bit. Very powerful, German friendly, gay friendly, and it sounds like German invasion porn so the Nazis in the audience will be happy too. |
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* singalong to
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You still think Finalnd wins Henry? I think top 3 will be a challenge
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Well, I guess that relies on France not being god awful and Portugal picking correctly lol
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Those two could possibly be challengers. But Finland just says winner to me.
Would the organisers like Finland to win? I think so. Finland have only won once, second once, never third, and been last 9 times (which might be the record). That is when they were given the chance to come last as they failed to qualify 8 times since 2004. I've just seen Käärijä - Cha Cha Cha for the first time, 2nd in 2023. They bring a lot of originality. Now it feels right for them to win. |
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I think atm Estonia is their biggest challenge. But we've yet to hear all and some serious songs should surely rise up.
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Thanks for your responses regarding my UKR query
I backed UKR for a recreational tenner at 70 purely on the basis that the UKR/Trump/Putin situation may not pan out well for UKR in April or May and thus get some sympathy and traction in the market near the ESC event itself, and I could sell it for some all round green. I was quite surprised to see it at 24 a couple of days ago, and wished I'd gone in a bit bigger and would have sold it back there and then to free roll my other recreational bets. I'm keeping for now on the basis that anything could happen and a big sympathy train could come steaming in for it. It's just a punt on a black swan event really. |