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Xmas #1 single and album 2015
Xmas #1 single and album 2015
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Sadly not bardo (and I am on them at 100/1). He is actually pulling away.
The Christmas number one single is now very simple and I am amazed the bookmakers didn't give it more consideration yesterday. Having Louisa odds on across the board until late last night shows why this market is my fave each year!! Last week Bieber 'sold' 105,000(ish) units. 59,000 cam from streams and the rest from download sales. His streams have remained constant for the last few weeks and are still head and shoulders above anybody else. He had 2 days start on Louisa and this roughly equates to around 20000 units (Estimated weekly Sales/7 days)*2 and is out streaming her every day. Evidence is here https://spotifycharts.com/regional/?country=gb&recurrence=daily&date=latest. In terms of Itunes chart she has never pulled away and at his lowest point (was still selling 6 to her every 10). That might sound large but it really isnt and she would be hoping to outsell him bu about 5:1. She has now peaked and he is gaining on her on the Itunes Sales chart and pulling away on the Stream. Evidence here http://kworb.net/popuk/ She has a 'Physical' CD from tomorrow but this would have to really buck the trend to get her to number 1!! So Christmas number 1 is simply, what can outsell Biebers (roughly) 100,000 units Christmas week (perhaps more as the KIDZ are off and will stream the Beebs alot more; It really is that simple. Can Louisa have second week madness? I think it is more likely she falls away if she doesn't hit number 1 this week. Can Star Wars? Unlikely looking at the Facebook page. Loads of like but extremely quiet on recent posts Can NHS Choir? I wish it could but the lack of streams this will receive means it needs massive multi sales. Its looking like Biebers Christmas in all honesty!! |
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When will the 2015 Christmas number one be announced?
For only the fourth time in history, the Christmas Number 1 will be revealed on Christmas Day itself, with BBC Radio One counting down the festive chart within a special Christmas show from 10am to 1pm. It will be the earliest a UK Christmas number one has ever been announced, with sales and streams counted up to midnight on Christmas Eve, before the rankings are announced less than 13 hours later. |
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Louisa isn't even on that Spotify list!??
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Yip. She visited Spotify yesterday and didn't make the top 200.
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Sales only start counting from 0000 on Friday 18th December. Beibers last 2 number 1s have lasted 2 weeks at top spot, you genuinely expecting this to last 4 weeks i.e. looks good for the third on 18th but to stretch to the 25th might be a big ask, no?
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Hello cheps, long time no see
Earliest a no.1 has been announced? What about all the times xmas no.1 has been on the sunday, when xmas day has been the following saturday? |
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Hey GB, hope you are well??
Not sure about earliest it has been announced. This year should be really good though as it will be announced and not really known until the very last minute as streaming could still alter it if it is close. They moved the charts to Friday though this year and had Christmas not fallen on a Friday it would be the charts this week. |
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Mostly good :)
Which book are you at these days? I may need some cover bets on spoty this week :) |
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PM you mate
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PM you mate
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ta
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Hmmm this is the way I see it. Bieber remained at number 1 with 114,000 sales last week. Can he really maintain or better that amount in Xmas number 1 week given the single has been out for two weeks now? Now look at the NHS campaign, 176,000 people on Facebook say they will be attending the event i.e. downloading the single, with a further 46,000 people clicking to say they are interested. All these people will be getting reminders on the 18th to download it, doesn't mean they all will but given the latest sales figures of Bieber and Louisa it shouldn't take a massive amount to challenge for the top spot, perhaps 150,000 sales. The NHS Choir are releasing a new video for the song today (apparently a tear jerker with a strong message)so more interest to be generated yet, I feel there is still some juice in this campaign.
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tomato juice
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Beiber had 6,000,000 streams last week (66% of them on Spotify) which equates to 60,000 sales (100 streams is the equivalent of one single purchase or download when compiling the chart). Given natural regression it's fair to say he'll be looking at circa 50,000 sales from streams from 18/12/2015 00:01 to 25/12/2015 00:00. Combined with a projected 50,000 downloads that's 100,000 which to my mind should be beaten by the NHS choir who I think will drum up a serious rally from this Friday onwards.
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Last 24 hours I tune sales:
1 Louisa Johnson Forever Young 12075 2 Justin Bieber Love Yourself 8150 3 Stormzy Shut Up (Studio Version)6562 |
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Don't really understand how to read this link cheps: http://kworb.net/popuk/, any advice?
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Ratios of how they're being sold. Got it!
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2011 550,000
2012 270,000 2013 150,000 2014 215,000 Those are the sales for last 4 years, Beiber and 100,000 projected this year would be a surprisingly low figure. |
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Once the bieberers get a sniff of #1 then there will be no stopping them. No reason to believe that his sales and streams will tail off. The opposite is likely to happen
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#xmas #1
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I wouldn't be backing anything at sub 3.0 which looks to be projecting 100,000-120,000 myself, I'd be laying it if I understood the dynamics a bit better.
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Well Louisa is going to struggle to beat it ;)
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hells yeah!
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Someone's very keen to load up on Beiber at sub 3.0. Guess your Belibers theory is spot on.
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100-120K might be low going by previous years but each year has it's own dynamics.
It appears people have lost interest in XF and there's no Uptown Funk or Happy. With the record of 'campaign' songs being p1ss poor bar RATM, Bieber looks on course to hold on to me |
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Yeah dutching Beiber and NHS Choir pays odds against and looks close to free money, famous last words!
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figgy is cockbacking imho
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Louisa is already losing momentum. She looks finished.
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A campaign for a Christmas Classic would work this year as streams dictate the chart . . . . and the song would sell regardless.
Tom_ato I cant believe you think 120,000k units is easy to beat . . . . because its not. I'm with you on the NHS and would love it to be that, but they wont be getting STREAM units either so they will needs to outsell Bieber by at least 2:1 on Itunes - Adele didnt manage that!!! Couple that with all the Bliebers streaming throughout the week and the task you mention becomes a little more difficult. Also, they do have 170,000 people 'attending the event', but I am also one of them because it involved clicking one button. To actually purchase (and probably need to multi purchase) is a different thing entirely. To put it in context,the video for the song is on there and only has 12,000 like and just 33,000 shares - This involves one button click also!! Jeremy Corbyn got them up to 170,000 and not the cause unfortunately. Its the same with Star Wars. Yeah 400K likes, but look at the latest pics on there. They have about 200 (thats two hundred!!) likes. The film may revive a bit of interest but how much?? |
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Unusually informative thread, boys.
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http://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/can-x-factor-winner-louisa-johnson-beat-justin-bieber-on-this-week-s-official-singles-chart__13173/
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It charted at number 9 I believe Bardo
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http://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/louisa-johnsons-x-factor-winners-single-forever-young-enters-the-top-10-after-24-hours-on-sale__13181/
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http://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/louisa-johnsons-x-factor-winners-single-forever-young-enters-the-top-10-after-24-hours-on-sale__13181/
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Louisa still in with a shout.
after all its not this week but next weeks number 1 that counts. For Bieber to win , he will need to have been Number 1 for 4 weeks in a row ... thats a big ask |
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I think she falls away with this song when it is announced on Friday it is the lowest selling x factor single ever. Number one isnt difficult when your album is being streamed and keeping you there.
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https://spotifycharts.com/regional/?country=gb&recurrence=daily&date=latest.
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Forget Louisa, busted flush. Most insipid XF winner ever, zero motivation for anyone to buy that dirge. Sad Syco sheep who consider buying the XF single as a part of their Christmas rituals will already have done it, NOBODY else wants it.
The one to be on is the NHS. 1,7000,000 employees, 10% of whom just buying one copy will be enough. No campaign yet is perfect, but expect that to rev up nicely, come the weekend. 1.7 MILLION e-mails, 1.7 MILLION memos, noticeboards for 1.7 MILLION staff, etc.etc. Don`t forget, this isn`t just some whimsical popular-music combo, this is the phucking NHS we`re talking about! Full Government backing, they really won`t want their beloved NHS to look silly, they will want, no, they will DEMAND that it comes out with everybody smelling of roses, with the glory of the Institution enhanced. Which, of course, means the Christmas No1. So, Jeremy Hunt will be putting pressure on his underlings, who will pass that pressure on to more local Managers, who will be cajoling every level of staff, frequently, with, `have you bought it yet? Why only once? It`s for the NHS, you know, it`s for each and every one of us. Not just 1.7 MILLION staff, but 60 MILLION happy, loyal, and devoted patients!!! Go on, download it again, and get all your friends, family, anyone you know who EVER used the NHS to show and repay their gratitude!!!` 9/1 on the HS. |