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Spoty 2014 starts here
Spoty 2014 starts here
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I interact with professional gamblers all day who watch a hell of a lot of sport, most of em couldn't give a toss about Pavey and don't even know who Fragapane is.
Admittedly SPOTY voters aren't generally massive sports fans. Those backing Wilkinson in single figs must be feeling pretty sick atm |
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Zara Phillips won. I doubt she would have been the pick of your male sports fans
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 Same people who voted for Muzza could vote for Pavey conman. They're known as women |
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Women? I've always known them as Scottishers.
And Zara Phillips completely different flf, everyone knew who she was |
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I think the "casual" viewer numbers heavily outweigh the "big male sport fan" numbers. I see why Rory is a huge fav to win, but, a bit like on BB last night, the people who watch, & vote, have changed over the years.
The channel 5 viewership who watch "Dangerous Dogs & Proud", and the like, voted for Helen. All your nice middle English men & women will vote for Jo. That's my theory anyway. I backed her to win, be second to Rory, and for a Top 3 finish. All at what I think are good odds. If I lose I lose, and in any case, what she did winning the 10k at 40, beats hitting a ball with a stick any day of the week. |
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Totally agree with reasoning kevin. It looks like she has a mountain to climb in the 5K though
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Jonny Wilkinson, is there a massive campaign waiting in the wings to start? the very large one off bets matched on him in the OR, top three and without market are very strange looking. I laid him in the OR market without being able to understand his low price, are there any answers?
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I doubt there will be any sort of campaign for Jonny
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Emily Scarratt should be a shorter price than JW
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Nadal out of US Open - not that I think that will change prices much for Muzza SPOTY but good news for his backers
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Hamilton now 29 points behind in F1 and priced 2.35 for the Championships.
If he doesn't win he can't win SPOTY imo - so Rory may well go 1.15 or lower? |
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You're right. Can't see why anyone would back Hamilton for SPOTY. Better off backing him for F1, and if he did win F1, you can have a free bet on him for SPOTY.
Rory obviously the most likely winner, but, Jo Pavey still good value, and her story is very good. Better than Rory binning his girlfriend after sending out the wedding invites, & hitting form as a consequence!! Just a problem that the athletics vote might be split on the night. |
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I think for Rory to get turned over there needs to be clear competition, and I don't think there is any at the moment, but Hamilton could provide it.
I'm not dismissing him yet - but double figures for SPOTY probably now realistic. On the plus side if he does win it's likely to be in a thrilling finish / triumph over the bad boy Rosberg etc. Plus the final Grand Prix is 23 November - about as good timing as you can get for SPOTY. |
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If anything the F1 season is working out perfectly for Hammy if he wanted to win spoty, as it'll be close and triumphant if he does
Will Rosberg be docked points? I doubt it, but if FIA have any commercial sense, they will to keep the pot boiling nicely |
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Started to get a little excited about my £20k green on Murray when he was dominating the start of the 3rd set last night. Ho hum, well done layers
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The Wilco backer in top 3 and w/o is getting excited again
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go on Lewis
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What price hammy if he wins the title then?
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with the Ryder cup still to come, it's not as simple as Lewis winning
if Rory has decent ryder cup and Lewis is the F1 champ rory @1.7 Lewis @2.5 rory with a meh ryder cup and Lewis F1 champ Rory @2.2 Lewis @2 the fields nowhere, the timing of F1 could not be better for spoty |
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lewis having quite a journey, but struggling to beat an unknown in a two horse race
can only be stretched so far, maybe if nico forces him off the road a couple of more times it might happen btw....whats lewis doing with his barnet ? |
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It's to remind him of Nicole's hairy chalice
It's a spoty winning story for me Donny, if he wins of course He's got that bit of career achievement trump card over Rory too, having failed to win spoty last time. This season seems to have enthused the fans, one of the best in years |
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If Hammy wins currently priced to go around 3.6 ? Hope I'm wrong and can lay Hammy lower as hes a much bigger green atm. F1's dying on its feet - desperate fixing going on just to try to manufacture some interest
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Hi Dicky off topic but re your spreadsheet. It kept crashing when used on open office but I mow have excel. The bets work great for about 10-15 different ones then it stops working properly even though there are lines you created still left to use. I have had to go manual after a certain point. Do you have that problem or is there a later version? I can message you separately but given half the posts on here are what people had for their tea this seems more relevant
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The Hamilton price in SPOTY over the last 3 races has implied odds of just under 4.0 for SPOTY if he wins the F1 champs (which he is currently evens for) which I think is fair and tallies with Dicky's comments above. Muzza has been removed from the equation on that time as well.
The Ryder Cup may have a short term impact, but I don't think in the long term it will make much difference - it's the winning of the Open that counts for Rory. Struggle to see Rory much longer than 1.5ish even with a triumphant Hamilton win - if you think otherwise Hamilton is fantastic value right now. |
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23rd Nov the big day - Bernie has decreed a final race double pointer and it will surely go down to this
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Hi George have emailed (I think..)
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ok cheers Dicky will pick up tomorrow
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Dying on its arse (I don't think it is) or not F1 has a better record than golf in spoty
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Darts has a better record than Golf
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And tumbling
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could gareth bale get a nomination ?
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Lewis playing a blinder in the GP, a fifty pointer now
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wiggins wins world time trial championship
another dangerous candidate if nominated |
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1.15/9.6 matched in the last couple of days, Even after Ryder cup seems a touch premature with Hammy's now more likely F1 win. Prices them at about 1.22/6 if he does
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BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2014 panel announced
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/sports-personality/29711556 |
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Jason Roberts (Footballer)
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...in this thin year, is there any shortlist (lifetime achievement) space for Stevie G?
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It's not that thin
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http://community.betfair.com/specials/go/thread/view/94178/30159889
...shame we still don't have a "Who Will Make The BBC SPOTY Shortlist" or a "BBC SPOTY Top 10" market - please re-consider this for this or next year Betfair! |
