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World Championship 2022 Ante-post

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Replies: 973
By:
gjohn101
When: 29 Mar 22 13:08
That might not even be on website yet but it's been circulating all morning so going to assume it's  (almost) official. Looks the part anyway!

Agree totally mate, get as much a kick out of the qualifiers as the main event these days, from a betting perspective anyway. Tour survival on the line for at least 20 of them, can't wait Cool
By:
Latalomne
When: 29 Mar 22 19:12
Order of play is now up on snooker.org, mate Cool
By:
gjohn101
When: 30 Mar 22 10:03
Dunno why they couldn't do the draw live on their facebook page, it's the world champs after all. Bit amateurish to have it leaked out like that.
By:
gjohn101
When: 31 Mar 22 11:51
If Judd wins today, we'll know the top 16 seeds, with exception of 3 and 4 which could alternate between Judd and robbo.

Which would leave a last 16 of:

Selby v Yan
MJW v Hawk
Kyren v Ballrun
Robbo v License
Judd v Jack
Higgins v Luca
Zhao v Murphy
Ronnie v Allen

Looks a fairly balanced draw to me, hard to favour either section. Let's see if Luca goes and upsets the balance today!
By:
mr_sykes
When: 01 Apr 22 08:24
draw any different after luca beat judd?
By:
gjohn101
When: 01 Apr 22 08:33
As it stands, nothing has changed. If Luca wins sf, he can move up one place above Shon, win it out and he'd climb to No.7. Robbo would need to win it to move above Judd. Otherwise seeded draw will remain as above.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 01 Apr 22 11:39
Bingtao looks bet of the round,i wouldn't have been surprised if Selby had withdrawn totally,he may even miss next season with his mental health problems,no way he can it this year,think Trump could lose to Jack as well definitey..That leaves the door open for O'sullivan,could end up with a muggy final again him and one of the grinders Bingtao or Wilson..They'll do for me..
By:
gjohn101
When: 01 Apr 22 13:59
Obviously i only put that up as a guide, they still have to win their last 32 matches and gonna be a few casualties as always.

As regards selby, not sure how to read this. It's not as if his issues are a new thing and the fact he has confronted them head on this year could be a positive if anything. Not sure it puts me off yet.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 01 Apr 22 14:43
Never seen Selby like he is now,looks on the verge of retirement to me,he's not interested in snooker still grieving his dad 25 years on,certainly unbackable unless he got to the quarter finals at least and proved that his heart was in it.O'sullivan will be favourite after this weeks tournament win,he's the only one playing well..he'll be 4/1 by sunday if he wins it,
By:
gjohn101
When: 01 Apr 22 16:53
I dunno, only a couple of years since folk were pretty much writing off his career totally so I'd be wary of similar comments now. That said, his form hasnt been great, he's been beaten by Yan 3 times already this season and Yan himself not been brilliant so i can definitely see the negatives. Be interested to hear his interviews over next couple of weeks, if he seems in a decent place, I'd definitely consider it at a double figure price.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 03 Apr 22 20:27
if higgins wins where does that place him in draw?
By:
Latalomne
When: 04 Apr 22 09:03
Qualifiers get underway at 0930 this morning.  3 sessions of 4 BO11 matches, with a few potentially interesting ones across the day.

Jiankang v Astley looks like a coin toss; Zhao Jianbo has taken a few hefty defeats of late, the most concerning a 4-0 whitewashing by Simon Blackwell.  Judge is no world beater or anything close to it, but if Jianbo's off his game, he could go close;  I don't recall seeing Michael Collumb play before, but he shared the spoils with Jamie Jones & Chen Zifan before losing 3-0 to Shon in the only main tour event he's played this season (ranking CL).  Xu Si much the likeliest winner on the numbers alone, but Collumb might not be a complete no-hoper. 

Robbie McGuigan (aka step-son of Tubbs) was 5-2 up on Mitchell Mann and playing really well at this stage last year before completely losing the plot and the match.  I thought there was a chance he might kick on this season, but he didn't come close to progressing from Q-school, and he's not won a single frame in 10 played on the main tour this season.  There is a player in there somewhere;  Nutcharut Wongharuthai is the reigning women's champion who John has plenty of positive things to say about - she's the only woman to have made a documented 147.  I'm yet to see her play.  Purely on the numbers, Duane Jones should have too much for her, but he's not exactly having a great time of things;  Fraser Patrick has actually had an alright season, beating Shon, Croup, Butch & Hossein, among others.  Michael White's scoring is better than it has been since my records began, but a lack of confidence still seems to be holding him back.  Patrick maybe a tiny bit big;  Liam Davies is another player John has lots of positive things to say about.  He scored really well at the Welsh Open (3x 50+ breaks, inc a ton) in opening up a 3-0 lead over Boiko before letting the occasion get the better of him and losing 3-4.  Aaron Hill has claimed some decent scalps during his 2 years as a pro, but he's just not very consistent and hasn't scored well enough to be competitive.  Davies could go close, though whether he'll have the composure to get it done, if he does, remains to be seen.

Evening session thoughts later.

Be lucky.
By:
gjohn101
When: 04 Apr 22 14:23
Robbos comeback means he edges one ahead of Judd which means the latter avoids a potential last 16 encounter with Jack. I think both will be pleased about that.

Revised last 16 seeding:

Selby v Yan
MJW v Hawk
Kyren v Ballrun
Judd v License
Robbo v Jack
Higgins v Luca
Zhao v Murphy
Ronnie v Allen
By:
gobelins
When: 04 Apr 22 21:02
Hello gj - it is a well balanced draw, and Robertson will be delighted to end in a quarter with Lisowski, Brecel and Higgins. It would be difficult to make a case for Higgins (against Robertson) given what happened last night. Obviously, the real banana skin that is Ding could be lurking, so some of these quarters could look very different when the draw is done.

I can't have Selby on the short-list given how he is mentally at the moment. To come out with that much personal information after The Masters, and confirm that he is now seeing a specialist to deal with those issues he has been bottling up for years suggests getting himself 'right' is his priority at the moment. As you say, his interviews in the next couple of weeks will be interesting, but while speaking publically about how he is feeling should help him in the long-term, it can't be a positive (for his game) in the short-term. He is 12.5 on bf as we speak, and that would have been unthinkable a few months ago, irrespective of his form or the draw.

Trump doesn't look the same player this year, and as a Kyren backer I'm not unhappy that he has landed in Trump's quarter. For all Wilson's limitations, his form is likely to improve at Sheffield. If he has learned from the past 2 visits to The Crucible, he looks as likely as anyone to emerge from a wide-open top half, although he certainly won't make it easy. Ordinarily, I'd put a line through O'Sullivan, but his quarter looks a good one for him, with 3 fluent players who like to attack. Robertson is now favourite, and he would be shorter still if his Crucible form was stronger. But, it isn't, and question marks remain against him when he is put under pressure when there are 2 tables in play.

Looking a little further down the list, there are a few 'possibles' but I'd prefer to wait for the draw before considering them properly. So, for now, the 18/1 Wilson will suffice (although I have also taken 16/1 earlier this season).

For all that, it will probably end up being a Selby v Higgins final!
By:
gjohn101
When: 06 Apr 22 09:30
Fair post as ever, gobe. As I said above, i certainly appreciate the doubts about selby and while I'm not inclined to dismiss him yet, I'm definitely not suggesting I'm shaping up to be a backer either. Yan is a player I always thought had the game for this arena so I'm looking closely at him. But a hard guy to figure out, as the Zhao demolition proves, when you think he's about to take a big leap forward, he goes and takes two steps back! But No.16, depending on how draw goes, could well work out in his favour.

Knew you were sweet on Wilson anyway and the case is solid enough. I think Ronnie, if he really badly wants that 7th, and surely he does, warrants close considering. His attitude been pretty decent of late I've felt. Draw pretty ok too.
By:
gobelins
When: 10 Apr 22 08:45
Yes, that defeat for Yan Bingtao to Zhao in the German Masters was a real shocker. Although it was a freak result, and we probably can't read too much into it, it did show a ruthless side to Zhao that we may have wondered whether he possessed. I do like Bingtao, and he will be a big challenger for years here, but for the here and now - the question is whether he can be a challenger this year. The top quarter has 4 proper match-players in it, and even if Selby was A1, this would look a difficult section to call - and it could look even tougher if a couple of the better qualifiers land in it. Williams doesn't look too far away, and if a couple of tight matches had gone his way this season at The Masters and Tour Championship he would be much shorter than the current 34 on here. Also, The Hawk has shown some signs of improved form this year with finals in The Masters and Players Championship, although he has gone quiet again of late. You could argue that this quarter is the least likely to provide the winner, but some really hard-fought matches look on the cards, and Bingtao certainly has a chance of coming through it. OK, that's a bit non-commital but I think I need the remaining 5-6 days to make a decision, when hopefully we'll have heard from Selby - although that will probably confuse me even more!
By:
thegiggilo
When: 11 Apr 22 01:41
Exactly,the bottom half someones going to get through in dpube quick time compared to the other half,all potters in O'sullivan and Robertson half,O'Sullivan gets to play first as well even bigger advantage,the top half looks like grinders unless Trump suddenly comes back to form..It's got the classic look of someone grinding ther way t the final playing someone fresh in the other half and then you get a onesided final..
By:
thegiggilo
When: 15 Apr 22 03:12
Can see some definite turn ups and not necessarily the obvious ones,Nooh against Higgins has a chance on the way he played oin qualifiers if he plays like that then anyones,although big if..Got a feeling that Mark Williams might have a stinker against Michael White,not in Williams class but the welsh clash,wouldn't be surprised of this was close either..Never saw Stevens matches must be playing well otherwise Lisowzki would look a cert..the books seenm very confident Dings gonna turn up,when was the last time he played well..
By:
Latalomne
When: 15 Apr 22 07:57
Ding has played some really good stuff this season, just not deep in tournaments.  He beat Kyren at the Turkish (albeit partly due to Kyren seemingly not knowing that you can run up to the pink when you've got a freeball and there are only pink and black left on the table), before Kyren returned the favour in Gib.  They're tightly matched across their careers.  Not that surprising that the prices are close...

The all-Welsh affair was the one that really caught my eye.  White has a winning 4-1 H2H, including here.  He's definitely a big price.  Standout price of the round for me.

Mugthew scored well against Ali and was 4-0 down.  Jack's scoring is worse this season than it has been for the previous 5 seasons.  That said, I don't think you could make Mugthew a shorter price than he is.

Clarke is playing well enough to beat Zhao if they're not going in. 

Butch and Lyu are pretty closely matched on the numbers (never met). 

Theppy is dangerous, for sure, but I do feel that wanes over this sort of format. 

Judd and Hossein are very closely matched on the H2H, Hossein scoring better than ever, Judd posting his worst numbers since 2016-17 season. 

Most of the others could/should be decent matches, too.
By:
gobelins
When: 15 Apr 22 09:49
It was the worst possible draw for Wilson, and it is clearly a very difficult 1st round draw. His outright price barely moved, which was surprising, although I did think he was over-priced at 16/1 pre-draw. There are encouraging signs for Ding, but his interview after he beat Lilley suggested it was still very much a work-in-progress. Maybe, the one consolation, for Wilson, is that they don't start until Wednesday, so any momentum Ding may have brought in from the qualifiers is negated slightly. A cracker of a match in prospect though.

I'm not Robertson's biggest fan at The Crucible, far from it, but I'm not sure how he is evens to win his quarter. I had him 4/5 to 8/11, even allowing for the fact that Higgins would be a huge threat if he can put that recent defeat out of his mind (easier said than done if they do meet). Un Nooh has had 3 incredibly tough 1st round matches at The Crucible previously, including against Higgins, and although he has had a poor season, and is highly erratic, he'd have been one the big boys wanted to avoid. He looked very good against Selt in the final qualifier, although whether he is capable of re-producing that level at The Crucible is another story.

I was surprised to see Zhao Xintong quite so short against Clarke. The longer format clearly suits Clarke (as it does Jamie Jones) and they start on Day 1, which could add to the pressure on Zhao, although the focus will be more on Selby and O'Sullivan. And, speaking of Day 1 - let's hope Maguire doesn't forget his chalk! Surprisingly, these 2 have never met at The Crucible, so let's hope some of the old tensions re-surface at some point. Ahh, The Crucible - don't you just love it.
By:
gjohn101
When: 15 Apr 22 11:23
Definitely cases to be made for a few of the rags as outlined above posts. Certainly, Clarke one catches the eye. If you think the pre xmas Zhao turns up and pulverises all then so be it, but I'm more than happy to bet those kind of purple passages are something we'll see only intermittently at best. Clarke tends to get a bit emotional but that can be a plus on this stage. Give him a squeak.

If you disregard his no show against Ronnie here 2 years ago, theps performances here have been very respectable, 7-10 against Higgins and a 9-10 v Judd in which he had a big chance to win. I don't feel the vibes are as good with higgins this time, for all the fitness regime talk, so i sniff some potential of an upset here.

Vibes about shon not great too, and while that's thrown me in the past, I don't foresee a deep run here and if mags puts anyway his best foot forward, i see him taking this. Odds tight enough though.

kyren-ding, dunno. Memory still sharp on last time ding came through the qualies, so who knows what to expect? But if kyrens game and technique is  suitably honed, it's a match he should still be winning. I'd expect any of the main contenders to beat ding.

White has beaten MJW here before, as well as at the UK, so interesting to see how he goes. And glad to see Page making some progress finally, though still only 20!!, big ask v a crucible stalwart but think he can definitely acquit himself well. Jones, Hossein, Lyu, Stevens v an under par Lisowski - all definite squeaks for me. I've a few shekels outright on Noppon but Luca ought to be a tough nut to crack there.

Just some (very) idle initial thoughts!
By:
thegiggilo
When: 15 Apr 22 11:40
If Ding wins that match i would class that as a shock,he's basically looked on downgrade and finished for the last 2 years bar one tournament,if he actually won that match i'd be tempted tp back him outright would be a huge confidence booster.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 15 Apr 22 15:45
“It feels like I am fighting myself every day, but I have got great support around me with Vikki and the family, and now this doctor.
“I will be going to the Crucible probably with a different perspective and hopefully feeling better. I have someone to WhatsApp in a bad patch.
“I have been given a lot of things to do and it is up to me to do them. I have always treated snooker like it is life or death, and the hurt from defeats has been very strong.
“The doctor is sure that has something to do with losing my dad. Because my mum walked out when I was young, when I lost him, it was my whole family.
“I had nobody, the only thing I had to turn to was snooker, and that became like a comfort blanket. He believes that is why I have put so much into it, and where I feel most comfortable.
“I would love to look forward to it, because it would be a shame to be at the Crucible and not care whether I won or lost.”


The thing that made him a great player is the thing that he has to let go,looks very ominous even for his future..
By:
thegiggilo
When: 16 Apr 22 01:25
Think if Selby is going to come out and not even bothered about snooker,it'll just be a repeat of the Hawkins match and those frame score prices of 10-4 5 and 6 could easily happen.
By:
gjohn101
When: 16 Apr 22 08:57
Selby seems to have been quite close to not playing at all, judging from a couple of pieces I've read. Probably have fairly low expectations anyway, whatever that does for his chances.
By:
Latalomne
When: 16 Apr 22 09:08
Must admit, the quotes don't read well, and Jamie Jones isn't a complete mug.
By:
gobelins
When: 16 Apr 22 10:02
Selby has said "I've got the buzz again to go out and play", but he definitely seems to playing down expectations.
By:
Gin
When: 16 Apr 22 10:07
Morning all - It's that time of the year. Let's hope for a great Championship!

Good luck all.
By:
gobelins
When: 16 Apr 22 10:14
Forming a line at Sheffield, and they're off. Why on earth is Murphy doing commentary on the morning of his match?
By:
gjohn101
When: 16 Apr 22 10:15
I do wonder how Selby would be priced on the match market had none of these issues arisen, does seem quite low as it stands.

Couldn't go 2 minutes this morning without parrott making me want to put my foot through the screen. But, hark, JV's melliflous tones have me all aglow again. Swings and roundabouts!
By:
A_T
When: 16 Apr 22 10:22
Selby looks all over the place
By:
Latalomne
When: 16 Apr 22 10:23
As does Jamie Jones.

98 break start for Zhao, 1-0
By:
gobelins
When: 16 Apr 22 10:30
GJ - it's almost as if the bookies haven't made any allowances for Selby's mental health problems in the match betting, but have in the outrights.
By:
Gin
When: 16 Apr 22 11:02
WOW! What a miss from the Jester....................
By:
Latalomne
When: 16 Apr 22 11:05
Bit of a $hitfest so far, this one
By:
gjohn101
When: 16 Apr 22 11:08
Agree on that gobe, partly down to a lack of respect for JJ here. Not doing himself justice yet tbf.
By:
gjohn101
When: 16 Apr 22 11:11
Agree on that gobe. I'd say at least partly due to a lack of respect for JJ here, not done himself justice so far tbf.
By:
Latalomne
When: 16 Apr 22 11:20
Mid-sesh, 3-1 Zhao
By:
Latalomne
When: 16 Apr 22 11:26
Jamie J's chance might have gone....
By:
Latalomne
When: 16 Apr 22 12:04
Jamie J punishes a Selby let-off.  Maybe the chances will keep coming.....?
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