Rugby
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There is plenty we know: Harlequins, Ulster, Clermont and Toulon are all through, the first 3 as pool winners for sure (Toulon very likely to join them, but a big Montpellier win potentially changes things). We also know that Sarries should join them (they only have to beat Edinburgh, who have been awful) and the winner of the Leicester v Toulouse game will qualify as well.
Harlequins already have a home QF, Clermont and Toulon should join them but that isn't certain yet. Assuming that is the case (and it's a confusing mess of certain teams winning, scoring bonus points and scoring a ton of tries as well) then the 4th top seed is in Ulster's hands - if they win with a bonus point then they are up to 24pts and therefore out of reach. If they don't, well, Sarries and Toulouse are back in the mix. (in fact is is possible that Leicester could get that 4th spot, but they need Sarries and Ulster both to lose which doesn't appear likely).
All of that is very nice, but what about the real issue here? Who gets the runners up spots. Two teams can get to 20pts max, one team can get 22 or 23. The latter is Montpellier who need to beat Toulon to get 7th seed (and if they win by 22pts+ and score 4 tries they get a top 4 seed. I wont be spending too much time on that eventuality). Montpellier can lose their game and get to 20pts by scoring 4 tries (and losing by less than 8) but their try count is already high and they should claim the 7th spot in that instance, ditto with a draw. (in fact the draw probably suits both French teams pretty well, hmmmm.......)
So, if Montpellier do win their game that leaves one spot (the brightest amongst you will realise that if they don't then two spots are up for grabs) and those two teams who can get to 20pts are Leinster and Munster. If two teams share the same number of points then it is decided on which one has scored the most tries - Munster currently have 9 tries, Leinster have 8 tries, which of course gives Munster a very slight advantage.
The bonus for both Irish provinces is that Montpellier play at 3:40pm on Saturday and are first to go so Leinster and Munster already know something about what they have to do. Leinster are up next at 6pm and then Munster play at 12:45pm on the Sunday. So it's clear from that that Munster have the massive upper hand there, they know what they have to do to qualify. Munster are in the far better position of playing a French team, who cant qualify, at home as Exeter are far more likely to give it everything being in front of their home crowd and being able to put out the reigning champs. So that's simple.....
Well, not quite, it's technically possible for Toulouse, who play next, to lose their game by less than 8pts and score 4 tries. They would be up to 20 (with Leicester on 20 or 21) and it goes to tries again. (Toulouse start with 14 so have a headstart on the two Irish sides)
And if Montpellier lose we could have Munster, Toulouse, Biarritz, Northampton, Leinster and Montpellier all on 19ts, or just a selection of those. There are also a billion other possibilities.........
Everyone clear? Or have I got this all wrong?
Harlequins already have a home QF, Clermont and Toulon should join them but that isn't certain yet. Assuming that is the case (and it's a confusing mess of certain teams winning, scoring bonus points and scoring a ton of tries as well) then the 4th top seed is in Ulster's hands - if they win with a bonus point then they are up to 24pts and therefore out of reach. If they don't, well, Sarries and Toulouse are back in the mix. (in fact is is possible that Leicester could get that 4th spot, but they need Sarries and Ulster both to lose which doesn't appear likely).
All of that is very nice, but what about the real issue here? Who gets the runners up spots. Two teams can get to 20pts max, one team can get 22 or 23. The latter is Montpellier who need to beat Toulon to get 7th seed (and if they win by 22pts+ and score 4 tries they get a top 4 seed. I wont be spending too much time on that eventuality). Montpellier can lose their game and get to 20pts by scoring 4 tries (and losing by less than 8) but their try count is already high and they should claim the 7th spot in that instance, ditto with a draw. (in fact the draw probably suits both French teams pretty well, hmmmm.......)
So, if Montpellier do win their game that leaves one spot (the brightest amongst you will realise that if they don't then two spots are up for grabs) and those two teams who can get to 20pts are Leinster and Munster. If two teams share the same number of points then it is decided on which one has scored the most tries - Munster currently have 9 tries, Leinster have 8 tries, which of course gives Munster a very slight advantage.
The bonus for both Irish provinces is that Montpellier play at 3:40pm on Saturday and are first to go so Leinster and Munster already know something about what they have to do. Leinster are up next at 6pm and then Munster play at 12:45pm on the Sunday. So it's clear from that that Munster have the massive upper hand there, they know what they have to do to qualify. Munster are in the far better position of playing a French team, who cant qualify, at home as Exeter are far more likely to give it everything being in front of their home crowd and being able to put out the reigning champs. So that's simple.....
Well, not quite, it's technically possible for Toulouse, who play next, to lose their game by less than 8pts and score 4 tries. They would be up to 20 (with Leicester on 20 or 21) and it goes to tries again. (Toulouse start with 14 so have a headstart on the two Irish sides)
And if Montpellier lose we could have Munster, Toulouse, Biarritz, Northampton, Leinster and Montpellier all on 19ts, or just a selection of those. There are also a billion other possibilities.........
Everyone clear? Or have I got this all wrong?
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It's technically possible for a whole host of teams to qualify as Runners Up, but it's odds on that two of Montpellier, Munster and Leinster qualify. Toulouse are a possibility, but it looks more likely than not that either themselves or Leicester will be out.
Given their try count, a losing BP should be sufficient for Toulon to get a home QF, so it's hard to know what kind of a side they'll send to Montpellier, but their squad is so strong that it's quite difficult for them to field a weak team. Ouedraogo has today been ruled out of this match and I don't think Bet Everyday will be sticking their finger in the air early with this one! It looks like an absolute nightmare to price and there's a very real possibility that it finishes on a convenient scoreline. Montpellier lost at home to Toulon this season, but won the three previous meetings at Stade Yves du Manoir. Of all the teams fighting it out for a best RU spot, Munster have to be favourites. They play last, have a better try count than Leinster and will probably be up against a Racing side more than happy to wave the white flag. Leinster missed a trick in not scoring more tries against Scarlets last weekend and questions must be asked as to why Schmidt was happy to employ his bench so early. They led 26-11 after 43 mins, but only ended up winning 33-14. Quins are the only side that has already guaranteed a home QF, so will they send the reserves to Biarritz? A winning BP would move Biarritz onto 19 points with a stronger try count than most of the other second placed teams, but this is still unlikely to be enough, while Northampton need a miracle. Putting all of this together, it's most likely that Munster qualify along with Montpellier. |
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To Qualify:
Munster 1/3 Montpellier 4/6 Leinster 5/4 Biarritz 6/1 Northampton 16/1 |
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what yer haven't factored in is that some sides will be playing for an Amlin Cup QF slot - the next best 3 RU's up which will become more of a factor if Birritz loose to Quinns.
it's not a given for instance that Racing will have nowt to play for come that Sunday, thay beat Munster & Toulouse win ve Tigers & racing are in the qf's no matter what occurs before. More to play for than meets the eye this w/e, firmly waiting for line-ups & also the weather conditions for the "Arctic blast" we're due From Friday..... tis winter after all & gotta love the new Amlin format for making the last 2 weekends of the HC more a factor. Leinster to thump Exeter for me |
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The best thing to come out of all this is that a draw between MontP and Toulon looks a handy enough result for both sides.
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Think you got the points totals mixed up in that group, furrelli. Racing are out and I don't think any of the usual contenders in the HC give a rat's ar$e about the Amlin at this stage.
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I'm surprised that none of the big firms have price up a "To Qualify" market. I think they'd get plenty of business and they have a free tissue from BDBet
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nope, not mixed up at all, if Racing beat Munster they finish r-u in the grp & they have an opportunity to qualify for Amlin qf's. looking thro the grps there are also other sides sitting 2nd/3rd with more than jus HC qf qualification on they're mind, pros always have 1 eye on silverware & will be looking at the Amlin cup as well.
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Cant imagine Racing are in any way bothered with the Amlin?? They barely give the Heino the time of day.... would be amazed if they don't send their reserves to Munster!!
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ahh the evening shift.....
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I think they will send the second team over as well as even if they beat Munster they can still easily come last of the RUs and miss out on the Amlin.
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Team line-ups & weather conditions we await then as do the books, only one up so far on the new look betting zone site.
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noone will want to play Leinster in the last 8,think Quins will be aware of that and are prob better off losing to Biarritz,Leinster should score 4 tries,less confident about Munster,think 5/4 Leinster to qualify are value as are the 12/1 about themselves and Saracens outright,Saracens should get a home qf if they score 4 v Edinburgh making 12/1 for a home quarterfinalist a little big....
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Amlin qualification:
Pool 1 - In the unlikely event of Sarries (10) losing they could have 18 or 19 points. More likely is Munster (9) finish second with 19 or 20. If Munster lose then Racing Metro will be on 16 or 17 points. Pool 2 - If Leicester (13) win then Toulouse (14) will be second with 18 or 19. If Toulouse win then Leicester will be second with 16 or 17 Pool 3 - If Biarritz (14) win they are on 18 or 19. They can still lose and qualify if they get a BP and Northampton and Castres lose (or if both of those lose without a BP) Pool 4 - If Northampton (6) win they are on 18 or 19. If Castres (5) win they are on 17 or 18. Pool 5 - If Leinster (8) win they are on 19 or 20, if they lose they are on 15 or 16 Pool 6 - If Montpellier (15) win qualify for the QFs. If they lose they are on 18 or 19 |
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So.......
there are actually a hell of a lot of possibilities. One of Munster and Leinster could still be out of both comps, it's perfectly possible. Wins for Biarritz and Northampton or Castres would put their current totals of 15 (or 16 with a BP) too low unless both lose (in which case Munster are gone anyway, finishing 3rd), in which case Leinster could be saved by the fact that Metro would only have 16, which Leinster could achieve with a BP. Then it would come down to tries and Leinster have a 1 try advantage. If both Irish provinces win their games then it is very likely that they qualify for one comp or the other, although it's just about technically possible that they dont. Otherwise it's generally a case of win and you are through with Metro and Castres clinging on but needing other results to go their way, as well as winning their own games. My guess would be that Leinster, Biarritz and Toulouse will be the Amlin trio (with Munster and Montpellier going to the QFs), although it's all very tight and Munster and Leinster seem interchangeable. |
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The 4th top seed is in Ulster's hands, if they win with a BP they get it, but they have a trip to Castres to deal with and we just don't know how the French side will treat the game. Sarries have a far easier task of beating Edinburgh and although they start from 2 tries behind Ulster they are very close on points difference and a 5pt win for them with just a 4pt win for Ulster could well see Sarries grab the 4th seed.
I wonder if both Ulster and Leinster are currently considering what might have been if they had taken opportunities in previous games to push for that one more try. Leinster settled for a BP against Clermont, which due to the wonders of hindsight will look a great decision if they qualify but a poor decision if they don't. Ulster turned down the chance for a 4th try in their previous match, which could take a home tie away from them. Small margins in this comp. |
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Ruan Pienaar has been brilliant this season. should win player of the season in the Rabo12 by a distance imo but that decision to kick the ball dead when in an exhausted oppositions 22 last week was a very strange, and potentially costly one.
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I thought that Clermont were there for the taking in France. Leinster were much the better side, but they never wanted more than a losing BP and therefore never looked like actually winning the game. They played the match as if a reversal in Dublin the following weekend was a formality and that's ultimately what has cost them. You can't guarantee what kind of form your players will turn up in every week so you have to seize any opportunities that come your way.
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I would say that Clermont looked beatable that day if Leinster could score a try, but I think they could have played for 4 hours without that happening. I can't remember Leinster making it into the Clermont 22 at all and when they needed 3pts for a draw it didn't even slightly look like happening. Clermont got into the Leinster 22 on multiple occasions and it always seemed to end in a pen for Leinster killing it, although on one occasion Clermont dropped it a yard out.
Which in effect is no different from most years - Leinster have always been happy to give away pens when danger looms on the basis that their attack will bail them out. This season that attacking prowess has been left behind and I'm a long way from convinced that they score 4 against Exeter if the home team put a decent side out. We do expect them to improve at this time of year, but they are coming from a lot further back than usual. |
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I wouldn't have counterfeit on Leinster making it through. Their pack has looked vulnerable and their backs aren't playing with any fluency. Exeter has lost their form a bit, but if they pute out their best side I'll more than likely be laying Leinster at short prices.
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Exeter have become a bit of a pain to read of late and if they try to play at a hundred miles per hour I don't see it going well for them. I can see what Baxter is trying to do with them, but they don't have decision makers in key positions and chances keep getting created but not capitalised upon. Realistically with Steenson at 10, two strong runners in midfield and a solid pack they should just be grinding their way through games in the usual manner, not trying to convince the world that they are a super15 team.
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There is no way Quins will lose on purpose to potentially avoid playing Leinster. That is just fantasy.
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Might have been an exaggeration to say Leinster were much the better side in France, I was just trying to emphasise that they had Clermont on the back foot for chunks of the game, but at no stage did they look like taking advantage.
Quins have put out their strongest possible XV tomorrow, possibly for the first time this season. There's not a hope of any side deliberately losing, especially when they play before everyone else. |
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Yes, I think there would be opportunities for deviousness if Quins went last, not that they would necessarily be taken, but when they are first up there can be no doubt that they will go full tilt. Some really interesting games this week, which is in direct contrast to last week and Biarritz v Quins is the first of them.
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Good read, lads. Should be fascinating.
Like most of you, I see Munster qualifying. Toulon home and dried as group winners even if Montpellier were to win with a bp....so presumably they will put out a second string...I also think Toulon they are fine for a home QF even if they lose without a bp. Second string very handy obviously but...I think it looks good for Montpelier. So Montpellier and Munster for me. |
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Head to head comes into it if points are level, so Toulon are not completely done and dusted. Looks very very unlikely that they miss a top seed though as long as they do top the pool.
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Connacht: 15 Robbie Henshaw, 14 Tiernan O'Halloran, 13 Eoin Griffin, 12 Dave McSharry, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Kieran Marmion, 8 Andrew Browne, 7 Johnny O'Connor, 6 Mick Kearney, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 Michael Swift, 3 Nathan White, 2 Jason Harris Wright,1 Brett Wilkinson.
Replacements:16 Ethienne Reynecke, 17 JP Cooney, 18 Ronan Loughney, 19 Dave Gannon, 20 Eoghan Grace, 21 Paul O'Donohoe, 22 Miah Nikora, 23 Danie Poolman Zebre: 15 Tito Tebaldi, 14 Giovanbattista Venditti, 13 Roberto Quartaroli, 12 Matteo Pratichetti, 11 Ruggero Trevisan, 10 Daniel Halangahu, 9 Alberto Chillon, 8 Filippo Ferrarini, 7 Mauro Bergamasco, 6 Emiliano Caffini, 5 Josh Sole, 4 Mike Van Vuren, 3 Luca Redolfini, 2 Davide Giazzon, 1 Salvatore Perugini. Replacements: 16 Carlo Festuccia, 17 Matias Aguero, 18 David Ryan, 19 Nicola Belardo, 20 Andrea Manici, 21 Luca Martinelli, 22 Alberto Chiesa, 23 Samuele Pace. Date: Friday, 18 January Venue: The Sportsground Kick-off: 20:00 GMT Referee: Pascal Gauzere (France) Assistant referees: Jean-Luc Rebollal (France), Cyril Lafon (France) Television match official: Daniel Irazoqui (France) Biarritz: 15 Iain Balshaw, 14 Taku Ngwenya, 13 Benoît Baby, 12 Damien Traille, 11 Aled Brew, 10 Jean-Pascal Barraque, 9 Dimitri Yachvili, 8 Imanol Harinordoquy, 7 Raphael Lakafia, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Pelu Taele, 4 Thibault Dubarry, 3 Ben Broster, 2 Arnaud Heguy, 1 Fabien Barcella Replacements: 16 Jean-Philippe Genevois, 17 Thomas Synaeghel, 18 Eugène Van Staden, 19 Erik Lund, 20 Talalelei Gray, 21 Yann Lesgourgues, 22 Julien Peyrelongue, 23 Seremaïa Burotu, Harlequins: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Tom Williams, 13 George Lowe, 12 Jordan Turner-Hall, 11 Ugo Monye, 10 Nick Evans, 9 Danny Care, 8 Tom Guest, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Maurie Fa'asavalu, 5 George Robson, 4 Olly Kohn, 3 James Johnston, 2 Joe Gray, 1 Joe Marler. Replacements: 16 Rob Buchanan, 17 Mark Lambert, 18 Will Collier, 19 Charlie Matthews, 20 Luke Wallace, 21 Karl Dickson, 22 Ben Botica, 23 Ollie Lindsay-Hague. Date: Friday, January 18 Venue: Stade Aguiléra Kick-off: 21:00 (20:00 GMT) Referee: John Lacey (Ireland) Assistant referees: Paul Haycock (Ireland), Michael Black (Ireland) Television match official: Seamus Flannery (Ireland) |
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yes, good point RM. Toulon won the first game 37 -16, four tries to one, so a lot of ground for Montpellier to make up, head to head.
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What is the bloody story here lads. I know its complicated on the to qualify market but bookies are really running scared. Surely they have clued up rugby odds compilers that can work thist out
Only Powers have a price on Leinster to qualify(5/4) shocking value Ladbrokes are 5/1 leinster make semi final and 10/1 make final which reflects how poor value 5/4 is What time of the day will the firm priced up all or at least most of the games? They can price up Six Nations matches months in advance but rugby cannot be priced up until the day of and even with teams news they are so bloody slow. |
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They need one company to show their hand first and then those that can get on for £25 will set the correct line for them.
Must be a nightmare being a rugby odds compiler when you have no BF tissue to work off  PS you can have a bet on the opening weekend of the S15 if you want as well as the 6 Nations. |
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they should at least be able to work out the win price by this stage on their own, whatever about the handicap line. I know not all team news is out but sure they can quote soccer, American Football, GAA etc on the monday before the weekend on all other codes
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Makes you wonder how they can possibly conclude Leinster are 14/1 outright, yet they cannot price up this weekend's matches or a "to qualify" market.
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Always pishing n moaning yous lot
thay got the league 2 games up in France so whats the problem! |
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Hahaha, PP obv saw Big D's tissue!!!
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Munster 1/6 to qualify
 Can't imagine there are people queuing up to take that!! Nice margin for them the jokers.... |
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Munster:
15 Felix Jones, 14 Doug Howlett, 13 Keith Earls, 12 James Downey, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Ian Keatley, 9 Conor Murray, 8 James Coughlan, 7 Tommy O'Donnell, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Donnacha Ryan, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 BJ Botha, 2 Damien Varley, 1 Dave Kilcoyne. Replacements: 16 Mike Sherry, 17 Wian du Preez, 18 John Ryan, 19 Billy Holland, 20 Paddy Butler, 21 Duncan Williams, 22 JJ Hanrahan, 23 Casey Laulala, Racing Metro: 15 Gaetan Germain, 14 Julien Jane, 13 Guillaume Bousses, 12 Alexandre Dumoulin, 11 Sereli Bobo, 10 Olly Barkley, 9 Mathieu Belie, 8 Jacques Cronje, 7 Bernard Le Roux, 6 Antoine Batut, 5 Fabrice Metz, 4 Karim Ghezal, 3 Benjamin Sa, 2 Benjamin Noirot, 1 Julien Brugnaut. Replacements: 16 Thomas Bianchin, 17 Andrea Lo Cicero, 18 Juan Pablo Orlandi, 19 Jone Qovu Nailiko, 20 Benjamin Fall, 21 Santiago Dellape, 22 Sebastien Descons, 23 Masi Matadigo, |
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Munster qualify then....
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No surprise at all to see Racing send the dirt-trackers over.
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Montpellier look a good price at 10/11 to beat Toulon, assuming that it will not be a first choice Toulon side. Touon don't appear to have annnounced their side yet.
How have these two gone of late head to head at Montpellier? |
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Montpellier: 15 Pierre Bérard, 14 Timoci Nagusa, 13 Thomas Combezou, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Yoan Audrin, 10 Francois Trinh-Duc, 9 Benoit Paillaugue, 8 Alex Tulou, 7 Johnnie Beattie, 6 Alexandre Bias, 5 Mamuka Gorgodze, 4 Mickael Demarco, 3 Maximiliano Bustos, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili.
Replacements:16 Rassie van Vuuren, 17 Yvan Watremez, 18 Barry Fa'amausili, 19 Aliki Fakate, 20 Thibaut Privat, 21 Kelian Galletier, 22 Eric Escande, 23 Lucas Amorosino. Toulon:15 Delon Armitage, 14 Rudi Wulf, 13 Maxime Mermoz, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Alexis Palisson , 10 Jonny Wilkinson (cap), 9 Frédéric Michalak , 8 Chris Masoe, 7 Steffon Armitage, 6 Pierrick Gunther , 5 Jocelino Suta, 4 Simon Shaw , 3 Davit Kubriashvili, 2 Mickaël Ivaldi, 1 Andrew Sheridan. Replacements: 16 Jean-Charles Orioli, 17 Gethin Jenkins, 18 Carl Hayman, 19 Nick Kennedy, 20 Mathieu Bastareaud, 21 Juan-Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 22 Vincent Martin, 23 Joe van Niekerk. Date: Saturday, 19 January Venue: Stade Yves du Manoir Kick-off: 16:40 (15:40 GMT) Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland) Assistant referees: Stuart Gaffikin (Ireland), Kevin Beggs (Ireland) Television match official: Marshall Kilgore (Ireland) |