Racecaller08

The Betfair Summer Double First Leg International is a 7F class 2 handicap which takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 23rd July, on the supporting card of the King George. Trends point towards 4 or 5yo who are still improving and ran well at Royal Ascot.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (http://tinyurl.com/3nuq76q):

Age
3yo: 1-5-33
4yo: 7-9-92
5yo: 2-9-55
6yo+: 0-7-57
9 of 10 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5
Horses aged 6+ have a poor record, failing to win this race in past 10 years despite accounting for over 24% of the total runners.

Weight
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-5-10
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-8-47
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-8-73
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 4-9-107
Top Weight: 430032008103 (1-5-12)
Half the horses allotted to carry top weight have made the places.
Horses carrying a penalty: 0941009040050095410204 (2-5-22)
Horses carrying a penalty priced 12/1 or shorter: 4104050954124 (2-5-13)
7 of the 13 penalised runners that were sent off 12/1 or shorter made the places (with a further two finishing 5th)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 4-14-79
Horses rated 93 to 99: 5-12-89
Horses rated 92 or lower: 1-4-71
9 of 10 winners have been officially rated 93 or higher
In past 3 years 11 of 12 places filled by horses rated 96+.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed last time
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (both exceptions did so on second or third last start)
10 of 10 winners ran in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners contested a class 2 race last time (exception won a class 3)
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions placed in a race worth 40K+ that season)
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times on turf that year
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 7F (1 exception was beaten a short head in Bunbury Cup on previous start & other gained only win in 6F group 3)
8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (both exceptions had won a class 3 and finished 2nd in a class 2 Ascot handicap)
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K+
10 of 10 winners contested a class 2 h’cap worth over 30K that season

Big Field Form
6 of 10 winners had won a race with 16+ runners
The 4 exceptions had all finished in first 5 in 28 or 29 runner handicap at Royal Ascot. Clearly this is a race where you want a horse that has proven it can run well in a competitive big-field handicap.

Other Races
Last season's winner (Castles In The Air): 306008 (0-1-6)
Bunbury Cup winner (Brae Hill): 19004 (1-1-5)
Buckingham Palace Stakes winner (Manassas): 78237 (0-2-5)
Bet365 Handicap winner (Kingscroft): 000 (0-0-3)
Victoria Cup winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 0000 (0-0-4)
Newcastle Totesport Handicap winner (Imperial Djay): 0060 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 0520
3 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 410
3 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 9U0
3 of 10 winners ran in the Bunbury Cup last time, finishing 120
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Challenge Cup, finishing 08
9 of 10 winners contested a handicap at that season's Royal Ascot (4 Buckingham Palace, 3 Royal Hunt Cup, 1 Brittania, 1 Wokingham)

Trainers
Mark Johnston (1-1-13), Richard Fahey (1-0-1, who won the race last year) and George Margarson (1-0-5) are the only 3 trainers with entries to have won the race since 2001.
Kevin Ryan (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 representatives make the places.
David Simcock (0-1-3) saddled the 2nd and 5th in 2010.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at Newbury)
Horses drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 3-6-90
Horses drawn in middle: 2-1-33
Horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 4-20-90
There is a slight preference towards horses drawn high but nothing too significant.

Price
8 of 10 winners were sent off between 7/1 and 14/1
Favourites (0-3-13) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings and only 3 of the 13 (joint) favourites have made the places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 or 5 (especially 4yos)
•    Carrying a penalty
•    Officially rated 93 or higher
•    Had 3 to 5 turf starts in 2011
•    Ran in past 40 days
•    Posted highest RPR last time out
•    Won a race this season
•    Won over 7F
•    Won at class 2 level or higher
•    Won or placed in a handicap with 16+ runners
•    Ran in a handicap at Royal Ascot (ideally Buckingham Palace)
•    Ran in Victoria and/or Bunbury Cup this season
•    Priced between 7/1 and 14/1