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IRISH OAKS 10-YEAR-TRENDS

16 Jul 11 17:36
The Darley Irish Oaks takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 17th July. The last 2 renewals have gone to British-trained runners and there looks to be a strong raiding party coming over again this year, headed by the Epsom Oaks winner, Dancing Rain.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years http://tinyurl.com/6eqyanp:

Age
Race for 3yos

Recent Form
8 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners finished in the first two last time out (7 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (1 exception was 2nd in Epsom Oaks)
9 of 10 winners ran in the last 45 days
6 of 10 winners (last 5) finished in first 2 in a group 1 (4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

Other Races
Epsom Oaks winner (Dancing Rain): 1121 (4-1-5)
Record of horses placed in the Oaks: 0244033151349 (2-3-13)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Wonder Of Wonders): 2 (0-1-1)
Noblesse Stakes winner (Banimpre): 86424 (0-1-5)
Ribblesdale Stakes winner (Banimpre): 86240 (0-1-5)
Victor McCalmont Memorial Stakes winner (Banimpre): P4 (0-0-2)
Blue Wind Stakes winner (Banimpre): 347606 (0-0-6)
6 of 10 winners (last 5) ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 112211
3 of 10 (3 of last 5) ran in the Musidora, finishing 241
2 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly last time, finishing 41

Trainers
Irish trained runners: 5-8-79 (non-O’Brien Irish runners: 2-1-48)
British trained runners: 4-9-31
French-trained runners: 1-1-2
Aidan O’Brien (3-7-31) has won 3 of the last 5 runnings of this race and the record of his first string in the past 10 years reads 3-3-10.
Jim Bolger (1-0-8) is the only other trainer with an entry to have won this in the last 10 years.
Mahmood Al Zarooni’s (0-1-1) only runner in this finished runner-up last year.

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from first 3 in the betting & priced 5/1 or below.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.90 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Finished 1st or 2nd last time, in past 45 days
•    Won over at least 1M 2F
•    Finished in first 2 in Epsom Oaks
•    Finished in first 4 in the Musidora
•    Won or placed in a group 1 (or having first run in G1)
•    Trained by in France or GB or by Aidan O’Brien
•    From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 5/1)

Trends selection: Dancing Rain
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