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peckerdunne
21 Feb 22 22:41
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Date Joined: 26 Apr 12
| Topic/replies: 41,560 | Blogger: peckerdunne's blog
Rivers of blood tomorrow.

Remember GDP has no correlation with stock prices(historically).

Don't exit the market just DCA

Do enter the market as low Caps will be massively undervalued.

Everything will be shorted like mad bar a few select stocks, use it to your advantage as it always turns.

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Replies: 770
By:
politicspunter
When: 21 Feb 22 22:45
Hey, what about all those super duper financial gurus on here that have invested all their savings on cryptocurrency?
By:
peckerdunne
When: 21 Feb 22 22:52
Well the blue chip and Fangs are over priced and will feel more pain.

The crypto is very volatile and not for me, plus you need a sizeable tank.

I think your funds could be better deployed unless you can afford to play the volatility for those numbers.

The folk you refer too, have they got those sums of just projecting.

Off course we all got in at the bottom. Ha
By:
Giuseppe
When: 21 Feb 22 22:54
i wish i had some crypto
By:
politicspunter
When: 21 Feb 22 22:58
I just had a look at some crypto market graphs and they bear an uncanny resemblance to the ski slopes in the recent Winter Olympics.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 21 Feb 22 23:00
Nice analogy that
By:
politicspunter
When: 21 Feb 22 23:06
One bitcoin now trading for a lucky bag and two caramels.
By:
Giuseppe
When: 21 Feb 22 23:35
at last i can afford one
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 22 Feb 22 12:48
Or
Are you catching a falling KNIFE?
Shocked
By:
Escapee
When: 22 Feb 22 13:12
I had a look at the charts last night.

wow they are looking very sick.

S&P is near year long support levels, S&P March futures seemed to be at a discount to
spot. The DOW is near the bottom of an expanding triangle, which technically is often
associated with a large move or increased volatility.

Bitcoin is 37,260, again a very very sick looking chart. If 30,000 support fails
then there is so much air below it, 10,000 would look very likely, and even 5,200
does not look absurd on the charts, no matter how absurd it might sound now.
Bitcoin is a cornered market though, and cornered markets can go where ever the
cornerer(lol) wants to take it, pretty much.


My prediction based on my chart reading skills or lack of them is that there is enough
technicals in the data that there is significant chance of a chunky, news headline grabbing drop between now and May.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 22 Feb 22 14:29
Peckerdunne has got it right.
The best advice is to not buy yet, but wait for the drop if it comes.

There doesn't seem to have been any major sell off on the way up,(the professional money has already sold when a market falls.)
You can rarely be sure. But they don't usual pass up an opportunity for a big drop.

The crash in 2020 was just a money making exercise. Note the very high volume at the bottoms.
That's the windy investors selling, and the smart money taking the stock of their hands for when they move the market back up.

It's the same old routine. They've been doing for decades.

The experts try to explain it away with technical stuff. But it's simply manipulation by the professional money selling at the top and buying at the bottoms.
By:
Escapee
When: 22 Feb 22 14:51
experts also try to explain volume fluctuations in terms of reinforcing in hindsight
a view on the "weight" of a move.

Superficially, this sounds a treasonable conjecture and is widely accepted as the "truth".

my own personal analysis of volume/move data couldn't find a bettable link between
the two.

A lot of the volume fluctuations could be attributed to no more than professional traders... just trading.


This "just trading" also appears in the much more reliable and analysable volume/move data from 1,000's of Betfair horse races.


Volume?  it's got far to much noise in it to be of much use IMHO. (volume of participants is how ever, much more predictive)

good luck with it.
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 22 Feb 22 17:05
92 DOLLARS OIL
Silly
By:
Giuseppe
When: 22 Feb 22 17:08
good thing we don't have an energy crisis
By:
peckerdunne
When: 22 Feb 22 17:17
Red red red

Some top ones down 50% on last few months.

The correction is truly in play

Some VERY under bookprice mid low cap opportunities
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 22 Feb 22 17:18
THats wti
NSea is 4 bucks higher
Shocked
By:
Escapee
When: 22 Feb 22 17:35
"The correction is truly in play"

not on the charts it isn't.... yet
It's just a probability at the moment, much like a hot favourite's odds does not equate a guaranteed win.



"Some VERY under bookprice mid low cap opportunities"

After the last 2 years of quantative easing, I would be mildly surprised if this were widespread enough to warrant such generalisation.


only in my opinion, do your own research etc.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 22 Feb 22 18:53
So you've looked at the Russell, I research every day, go through many many companies and it's not a generalisation, it's fact.

Off course if you mean shell and BP holding up Ftse, that's different.

It's US stocks that are overvalued and losing Cap more than Uk.

Everything is in danger, big danger.

But yeah we all have opinions and that's fine, in fact it's good.
By:
Cider
When: 22 Feb 22 19:01
It's hardly a left field shout that US equities are pumped up. The vast majority of people who follow markets know that they are. However market makers expect the Fed to continue to step in. Until they don't.

There aren't many, if any tailwinds in the calendar year. I always felt that we wouldn't see the true damage that the money printer has caused until covid was effectively over.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 22 Feb 22 19:11
Never claimed to be Merlin

If your waiting on the Fed you lose
By:
Cider
When: 22 Feb 22 19:15
The are fukked, in a hole there is no way out of. Of course the Fed are meant to be independent, but they aren't. There will be a lot of political pressure to buy up more assets if there is a big correction.
By:
Cider
When: 22 Feb 22 19:20
I've probably posted about it before, but 'stuff' is the way to go. Businesses that produce stuff, make stuff, and sell stuff that there is guaranteed short and medium term demand for. And the commodities themselves proffer some protection against inflation.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 22 Feb 22 19:35
I know what stuff in buying Cider in as big a way as I can, yes have some diverseification too,
But I'm in for long growth, hopefully exponential too.

I believe I have the dog also for market dominance.I

I've done much Due diligence.

Fingers crossed
By:
peckerdunne
When: 22 Feb 22 19:46
I know I'm in at the bottom anyway, just want that X20
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 22 Feb 22 19:49
Cant believe Tesla can go that HIGH
Devil
By:
peckerdunne
When: 22 Feb 22 20:06
They go higher
By:
Escapee
When: 22 Feb 22 20:07
"But I'm in for long growth,

I've done much Due diligence."


nice one, You should do well if you avoid looking at the rough seas on the way.

Good luck with 'em
By:
peckerdunne
When: 22 Feb 22 20:25
Thanks dude, that's nice.

No fear no emotion
By:
lfc1971
When: 22 Feb 22 20:29
People need to be very cautious now , a major crash seems inevitable
Cash and bank savings , property ( although property prices can fall the property remains at least ) maybe bonds
safe investments
By:
Cider
When: 22 Feb 22 20:32
One of the problems, cash is not safe if the value is depreciating 10% per annum.
By:
lfc1971
When: 22 Feb 22 20:34
The value isn’t going to depreciate - there isn’t going to be high inflation
By:
lfc1971
When: 22 Feb 22 20:35
So you will have cash in savings making a little or losing a little
Others will lose 70% or more or everything
By:
lfc1971
When: 22 Feb 22 20:36
You have property - say a house loses 50 %
You have the house
By:
Cider
When: 22 Feb 22 20:37
Cash doesn't have any intrinsic value (obviously). Back to my point that you want assets that are 'stuff'. Stuff that people will always want. At least property always has a value, even if it isn't in pounds.
By:
lfc1971
When: 22 Feb 22 20:40
Yes I agree cider - property is ‘ stuff ‘
And it’s the best and most important and you can see it
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 22 Feb 22 20:42
Only Harry Potter can see all the property
Devil
By:
lfc1971
When: 22 Feb 22 20:43
There is nothing about the economy or about the world that says this is a good time to invest money
By:
peckerdunne
When: 22 Feb 22 21:06
Oh but it is and will be.

Cash as Cider said, 7% inflation Probably not far away, no good under mattress.

Assets is what goes up, is and will.
By:
lfc1971
When: 22 Feb 22 21:12
pd people have no money - how is there going to be 7% inflation ?
By:
lfc1971
When: 22 Feb 22 21:17
The banks and the government are printing money
That’s not the same thing as having money
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