Buy The Dip

That seems to be the 'quandary of the moment' dusty

I'm out of market bar a couple of small silver miners which I may well sell today

charts look disgusting to me atm.. we had what was possibly a 'bear market rally' and constant offers on rallies ever since across a lot of assets

SP500 just fell out of ascending channel which kept it in check since last low


doesn't look well to me at all

USD seems to be the place right now

Metals getting hammered, finally they give

GBP taking it up the jacksie too...On it's way to parity ?

all towards USD today

All the other currencies to the bin immediately with USD being the least dirty shirt in the laundry basket ... until ...

Pol pot absolutely clueless about bitcoin
And 99.99% still clueless about crypto
All the foundations and infrastructure is been built for the future of the world in crypto
It's a lot of heavy lifting and trial and error.

The USD is still the reserve currency, but even that is propped up by the biggest Ponzi scheme is history

Im also out
Other than Ultra that I can cash in now anyday since it seems it has the green light from monopolies for a takeover

Yep... USD backed by nothing more than the military really Timber

All fiat will turn to dust eventually , always has ..

It's already happening... Turkey/Sri Lanka... look at Japan , still merrily printing and sterling looks awful, all serving to prop the $ further( for the time being)

a race to the bottom...



The things we need to survive... that's what to buy/store/hold ahead of holding currency

and autonomy over authority is where people need to be looking (ie Bitcoin/physical gold ..these will fall further on an aggressive liquidiation event) but even then with what I think is coming there may be no easy way out..

Once the system switches to digital tokens/identification/restriction/rules it will be almost next to impossible to trade any other way but through 'their' system

Dusty, the quandary.., where do you go even for the short/medium term ?

Plenty of retail with sore pieces after trying to find protection from inflation last 2 years but then again one should not try to fight the FED in a tightening cycle

been happening for beards

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
–Thomas Jefferson


question is how far will they go this time ?

The Economist have built a model on revolution and riots and found it results in a GDP frop of 1.5% around a year later
There model shows how Afric and Asia really in the 5hit due to grain dependencies, and most of the sub continent are expected to riot.

Turkey a bit different, they got a nutjob who thinks inflation is tackled by LOWERING interest rates...the government is on the hook for the promises to subsidise some investment they created to encourage the population to invest into when inflation went out of control....so a new war is predicted

Lol yeah Turkey does have a 'further' disadvantage in Erdogan

It felt like the right time to come out of commodities. Like I said the other day, it can turn easily and quickly.

I favour quality, profit making assets now and plough on through, pound cost averaging. Short and medium duration gvnt bonds.

It doesn't matter where you look though, more pain looks a given .. everywhere

And most if not all is being stoked and engineered

this is good thing though, just got to look beyond the noise. a lovely extended bear market is lovely. when others are fearful and all that. i'm quite happy consistently putting my chips in now.

if there is a catastrophic world event, we're all fekked anyway

it won't get really jiggy until access to cash properly dries up, and real estate turns

I'm with you on that Cider but I think we some way off a bottom tbh

this edgy pip lower activity generally makes retail soporific and slow to act..

1 pip up, 2 pips down etc more selling to come imo


tbf tho I'm leaning toward the whole show being fekked and therefore so are we anyway


bp , shell off 9-10% today !!

know plenty who have sought solace in energy as 'the hedge' recently

also been watching metals closely recently

Gold done a great job of 'staying still' for gbp buyers since turn of the year while everything else melted away due largely in part to $ strength

They've breached good levels today downside and in the past this some times an indicator of a broad sell off all over.

nobody can call the bottom, but we can prepare for it. bp and shell is a direct function of the oil spot price of course.

if the commodity correction is big enough, it will be tempting to jump back in again.

for novice investors, with the uk tilt i like the LifeStrategy 100% Equity Fund (acc). Just pound cost average for the next 10 years, job done.

i do actually own a gold etc but it's currency hedged. that's just a buy and hold for me, to add diversity

I mentioned BP and Shell to fall on this thread a couple of months ago, not to everyone's liking I seem to remember.

I can't remember the date or


price and I didn't track them, so immaterial really.


I think what goes up comes down more in these volatile conditions, more haircuts.

However you gotta start somewhere, so if long and averaging you may well be fine, because there is

some real good value around if you can find it.

Diversification is for girls innit ha

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/06/report-jpmorgan-chase-and-citibank-ho...

shell and bp are a proxy for the oil price. a couple of weeks ago I felt (and posted) it was the time to get out of commodities, that the run was coming to an end. it's not a great thing to be involved in long term as it can be extremely volatile.

$ strength is curious. i know that a flight to the dollar is standard practice when there is global fear, but not after it has been incredibly devalued. or so one might think.

more $ strength this morning, mainly against a diseased ridden euro

DXY is heavily weighted with the euro so main driver of this index spike

Don't think it's a really true representation of $ value however

Parity incoming....

Euro worth a dollar...

King dollar bid all over the shop today

Oil dumps
Euro below 1
Cable below 1.18
And JPY weak af continuation
Metals taking a pounding too

100 bps next Fed meet ?

When does it become 'priced in' ?

Everything taking it in the a$$


Stocks off too 3720 support in sp500 .. lower if that goes I think

Tempting to go against this dxy spike somewhere.... usdjpy resistance 139.3

crypto holds well today

I'm quite comfortable pound cost averaging new money for now, with approximately half on the sidelines.

I will be tempted back into commodities soon.

CEO Ben van Beurden says, @Shell plc is exploring increasing shareholder payouts as a result of record earnings from rising energy prices.

Hopefully on the runway for real this time.

Still be a long runway but warming up now.

Massive volume today.

I bought plenty just above 3 bucks baby!

Go Tilray Go Tilray

Have a few thousand of Hexo also at 30 cents average.

Who'd have thought European economies would be dictated by energy from Putin Russia? How'd the European politicians eg Merkel, Macron, Draghi and Von de Leyen be so moronic? Be non-politically aligned with a potential enemy state is one thing, it's clearly another if economically reliant on the energy from the same potential enemy ran by a former KGB agent who'd been ready and willing to silence his critics permanently even on foreign soil.

The European political leaders are morons, period!

terrain alert, terrain alert

It's a cruel world

Good interview here, the hawks will already be thinking along these lines, buts it's nice (if not a little scary!) to have your thought processes affirmed by someone itk.

.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viO4Gww7-B4

tax people who work + pay people who don't work = less people working.

'it ain't rocket surgery'


so why are highly competent people like rich Rishi pursuing this suicidal policy

The engines are spooling!

Moving nicely now, still expect bumps, but it's happening.

Gonna make lots

To Tilray, Hexo.

clouded leopard
05 Jul 22 16:20
Joined: 16 Jul 08
| Topic/replies: 4,428 | Blogger: clouded leopard's blog
I'm with you on that Cider but I think we some way off a bottom tbh


Looks like I picked the bottom mate

Always nice that, could be a bullwhip too though!

There's still an awful lot of money sitting around on the side lines, and no super safe place to hold it.

It's a similar dynamic to what led to the covid bounce when the west was still in lockdowns.

Oh oh..it's Tilray time again

Have you no faith biscuits.

I'll make big bucks.

It's a long thread peckerdune. Remind us of the price of Tilray when you proposed a buy.

can't even bring myself to drip into this mkt

rates are nowhere near enough to tackle inflation at 9% + and we all know it's been higher than that in necessities

all I see is short squeeze/suckers rally at the mo

might even go 4050/4100 sp500 first


so here's your pointer to another bottom chaps .. trade accordingly

On I see biscuits, it's like that.

Well I can't be bothered to check.

It did go up 50% from their.

I did nt claim to sell or trade that.

I didn't know a war was about to start either.

I have taken advantage of the cheaper prices, wisely.

There

Buy the dip running in the
1.50 sandown
50-1

unplaced

Silver dollar runs in the 2.00 yarmouth

For disciples of us currency and precious metals.

interesting few hours/days incoming...

Let's hope it's positive

No earnings disasters.

The U.S. House of Representatives approved a bipartisan marijuana research bill on Tuesday, with the Senate expected to follow suit in the coming days—an action that will make the legislation the first standalone cannabis reform proposal to ever reach the president’s desk.


A start, hopefully.

Fed upped them by .75... good luck long term

It's very poor for the rest of the world. If it continues, potentially ruinous for countries at the bottom of the ladder.

Are you invested in Bitcoin, Cider?

No, I'm neutral on crypto. If people feel inclined to play, fair enough but they should be prepared to lose the lot. Old school thinking perhaps, but I find it difficult to value something that has no intrinsic value in of itself, and the vast majority of owners have only bought it with the intention of selling it to someone else at an even higher price.

Risk on again

It will be time to park again soon.

I'm all for people taking responsibility for their actions (we're on a betting platform, for goodness' sake) but I cannot be neutral about crypto when it is bruited as a successor to real money which is incompatible with its real as a channel for putting every kind of ill-gotten gain beyond reach of the taxman and the law.

Here's a neat link between crypto and investing in cannabis:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dariosabaghi/2022/07/25/juicyfields-may-be-the-biggest-scam-in-the-cannabis-industry/?sh=5963c8ee6293

Perkerdune's Tilray is not involved in this.

Sorry. Read ** incompatible with its real utility**

ub , please define 'real money' ?

Public faith in promises made on pieces of paper with pictures of famous people on is based on trust in the issuing central bank and its monetary policies.

Public faith in cryto is based on the belief that there will always be somebody willing to buy it.

to be clear, I'm neutral on crypto as an investment vehicle.

I'm not neutral on the potential for government to use it as a form of population control, or its use in propagating illegal activities.

What he said.

To add, currency backed by Government which is in turn is underpinned by the society it represents and the land underneath it. Crypto has none of that - the value of all the Bitcoin in circulation (19 million) couldn't buy Rhode Island, the smallest state in the US, for example. The idea that crypto is going to inflate to a value equal to the whole world is pie-in-the-sky. It is never going to happen. Far more likely crypto will run out of bigger fools buying in and revert to zero. Hopefully not too rapidly.

There is a massive misunderstanding on crypto in general, for instance, a very small percentage of crypto is linked to illicit/ill gotten gains but they would have you believe differently . It gets a bad press for a reason but forget crypto for a minute

What defines 'money' ?

Which attributes should sound money have ?

Hands up who thinks fiat currency is sound money

I do.

Do you think the supply of money should be unchanging, like Bitcoin?

This is really an investing thread.

99.9% of people buy crypto hoping to sell it on to the next man for more $ or £.

The viability and politics of crypto and digital currency is definitely a worthwhile topic, but it's probably best to still to the 'investment' angle here.

Well as an investment, I would compare fiat currency to a genuine work of art and crypto to a fake. 80% of people wouldn't be able to tell the difference and 99.9% wouldn't care if they could sell it on to the next man for more $ or £.

Jul 31, 2022 -- 11:17AM, clouded leopard wrote:

There is a massive misunderstanding on crypto in general, for instance, a very small percentage of crypto is linked to illicit/ill gotten gains but they would have you believe differently . It gets a bad press for a reason but forget crypto for a minuteWhat defines 'money' ?Which attributes should sound money have ?Hands up who thinks fiat currency is sound money

How does anyone know the exact percentage of ill gotten gains linked to crypto?

Fiat currency is also a construct. It works because people implicitly trust and have faith in it. Personally, I do feel that there is a threat to that system, especially usd being the reserve currency.

There's nothing we as individuals can do about it though, it's certainly more risky to put your chips in crypto, then assets priced in fiat currency.

As I've mentioned on this thread before, if you do have fears then hold tangible assets, things that people will always want/need, however the value they used to buy them is stored.

Fiat is sound money ? Even given the current backdrop of 'devaluation' again.

Try overlaying a chart with fiat against gold in real terms over the past 50/100 years

Gold is money in the truest sense, 5000 years of history or so.... Currency is not and it always dies eventually.

ie hold $50 in your hand or equivalent gold in 1920 and see where you are in 2022.. wouldn't be happy with a $50 bill would you ?




Polly , do you think turnover of criminal dollars is bigger in fiat or crypto ?

There are ways to measure albeit not precise as you would expect even with fiat

https://www.forbes.com/sites/haileylennon/2021/01/19/the-false-narrative-of-bitcoins-role-in-illicit-activity/


It's the same bashing with crypto on emissions. 'Dirty' digital mining etc but again it's overplayed propaganda and the fiat system itself is way less 'green'

Will always be bad narratives against crypto until there's a CBDC of course.



Just an interest on people's take on fiat really not crypto...

Cider
31 Jul 22 11:39
Joined: 29 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 49,229 | Blogger: Cider's blog
Fiat currency is also a construct. It works because people implicitly trust and have faith in it. Personally, I do feel that there is a threat to that system, especially usd being the reserve currency.

There's nothing we as individuals can do about it though, it's certainly more risky to put your chips in crypto, then assets priced in fiat currency.

As I've mentioned on this thread before, if you do have fears then hold tangible assets, things that people will always want/need, however the value they used to buy them is stored.



Agree with this

But where does one sit for a 'medium of exchange' ?

Which is safest store of value etc ? ... If we are losing 10%+ on fiat per annum are there better options ?

My guess is always be diverse... some here, some there but the way things are going inflation will be around for some time..  with a backdrop of even further fuelling..

So is that “yes”, clouded leopard, you do think there should be a fixed amount of money in the world?

There's no perfect solution. Property/land is the obvious one, physical gold is another.

Anything you possess can be theoretically confiscated, but if we reach that point, it won't really matter.

Shouldn't money be scarce or even 'relativley' scarce ub ?

Where we are right now is akin to the continual throwing of petrol onto an already way out of control fire

and CBDC's are in the parking lot waiting to enter the building, wonder why

You cant have a fixed amount of money in a well working system.

Money should simply reflect value, ie it facilitates the transfer of value. If the amount of value that society creates increases, through progression, development, population growth etc then the amount of money in circulation should also grow to reflect that increase of intrinsic value. At roughly the same pace.

What western gvts have become addicted to of course is creating far more money, without the increase in intrinsic value.

The resulting outcome is inevitable.

Shouldn't money be scarce or even 'relativley' scarce ub ?

Where we are right now is akin to the continual throwing of petrol onto an already way out of control fire

and CBDC's are in the parking lot waiting to enter the building, wonder why - I'm not sure this post has a point even if it were to be clearly articulated.

The point is we are printing ourselves towards oblivion and what we are experiencing right shows just that

There is only a bad ending..

but you seem think we are operating within a system of 'sound money' ?


big lol

There is no correct figure for the total supply of money. Furthermore, there is no upper limit until all the money in the world equals the value of the world entirely. Moreover, the Fed in March ‘20 was explicit about its willingness to print more of it when the need arises.

I appreciate your pro-crypto newsfeed is peppered with words like “the end” and “oblivion” - but what do you imagine when you read them? Like a volcano or something? Extinction?

Generation after generation insist on living beyond their means. Governments are forced to create ever more money to satisfy the selfish demands of the people they govern.
Now what happens when there is no more money to borrow and everybody is forced to live on the wealth actually created is anybody's guess ? A substantial drop in living standards , civil unrest and war would be my guess.

Ah so you believe in the Fed and it's course of action ?

You are a supporter of MMT ?

Do you understand the ramifications of such a dangerous policy ?

There is no correct figure for the total supply of money


love that, where did you find that gem ?

Well is there? What is it?

Didn't say there was did I ?

You just sound quite young to me


and what's with the fkin attitude boyo ?

Five minutes ago you said it was a "gem." A joke. Nothing wrong with backtracking, CL, but I suspect you'll be over-reaching yourself again in five minutes.

It's a gem of a line if you are an ardent supporter of the Fed and it's policy of destroying the purchasing power of 'currency' ,not money, over the past century yes

What do you think that means for the majority of the world who aren't in a position to own assets as protection ?

Johnny The Guesser
31 Jul 22 19:24
Joined: 15 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 4,443 | Blogger: Johnny The Guesser's blog
Generation after generation insist on living beyond their means. Governments are forced to create ever more money to satisfy the selfish demands of the people they govern.


Johhny, that is backwards mate


they are not 'forced' to create more money

we have lived through the biggest monetary expansion ever during our lifetimes

access to easy money was never, well, 'easier'

what did you think would happen ?

it's the other way around mate... consumption, growing the consumer society since WW2 was the 'desired' outcome

With respect, clouded leopard, you haven't thought it through. At the time of the "Great Reset" you all wish for, the majority of the world's population who are not in a position to own assets are not going to be given bitcoin to survive! Do the maths. There are 19 million Bitcoin. There are 7 billion people. Awkward, eh?

Some people think btc is a way of escaping the great reset. ie, the globalists want their own digital currencies which are codified (CBDC), so you can only 'spend' it on what they want you to spend it on. and they have an audit trail.

btw the amount of coins is irrelevant as they can be split.

in my view, it's highly likely CBDCs are coming.

the globalists want you to be laughed at as a conspiracy theorist, but it is in plain sight. it's a bit like BLM and the mainstream ignoring their actual aims, listed on their website.

it's way way too coincidental how the intended policies of western governments are harmonised. for example they are all busy trying to cut farming by 30%. knowing this is happening, and doing something about it are of course two different things entirely.

btw the amount of coins is irrelevant as they can be split. - Well yes, a bitcoin could be split into satoshi, or whatever, but the total supply of bitcoin would remain unchanged at 19.11 million. In other words, one bitcoin divided between four hundred people; provided all the owners of bitcoin decided to give them away and start again. Unlikely, innit?

part of the lustre of btc is the cap. but that's the theory, imagine that you have two types of currency, one your government can track, and one it can't. obviously the one it can't will be in high demand. it doesn't mean it will be in demand just for illegal activities, not everyone wants the government to know what they are doing.

i'm not convinced btc will be the underground currency, personally. but there are lots of people who have faith in it, and while that continues it will remain buoyantly priced on the market. equally a black swan event could happen that renders it literally worthless.

unitedbiscuits
31 Jul 22 20:53
Joined: 27 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 16,398 | Blogger: unitedbiscuits's blog
With respect, clouded leopard, you haven't thought it through. At the time of the "Great Reset" you all wish for, the majority of the world's population who are not in a position to own assets are not going to be given bitcoin to survive!

Don't understand why you're bringing btc back into it

Yes of course they are not

And who is wishing for a 'Great Reset' ?

fwiw if anyone is taking any notice of my bits and pieces on here lol

One of my key funds is RLP/BlackRock Aquila World ex UK Index Pension Fund.

Mentioned on the tread I was partially getting back into equities on June 16th (buying the dip!), the price was 341.70. Today it is 383.10. So up apprx 12%.

This is quite toppy already I feel, so I'm withdrawing a large proportion of it back into short bonds and cash. Perhaps a little early but this feels like a summer respite, with with winter to come.

inpp and tritax big box for income.

inpp is approaching one of the bi annual ex divs (for info)

bbox is trading at a decent premium after amazon's profit warning, scope for capital growth too.

Hell of a rally, caught me out proper good and we're a way off next Fed huddle in Sep

We're up 19% s+p (more in nasdaq stocks)

200 day ma sits right here at 4313 ... downtrend line coming in around 4360 and 61.8% retrace of whole move at 4370 but we still have good momentum

A clean break through those levels will ramp it and bear's testicles will be back on the menu

In other words.. big area to watch