Siberia is nice at this time of year.

The red tape here is all of Britain's making. They didn't have to keep the EU regulatory nightmare but both parties of Government have only added to it since Brexit. And of course the French ignore most of it anyway.

A major new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research has now provided the clearest picture yet of Brexit’s economic impact. Drawing on almost ten years of data, it shows that leaving the EU has not only damaged the UK economy, it has quietly, steadily and comprehensively knocked it off course. Far from a momentary shock, Brexit has produced a slow-growth decade that no amount of political spin can disguise.

For years, arguments about Brexit felt abstract, mired in claims and counterclaims. But this new research removes the guesswork. It offers something Britain has lacked since 2016: a full, sober account of the consequences. And those consequences are stark.

The headline finding is devastating in its simplicity. By 2025, the UK economy is 6%–8% smaller than it would have been had we stayed in the EU. In economic terms, that is not a blip, a rounding error, or the unavoidable cost of “taking back control”. It is the loss of an entire decade of growth. That amounts to £165bn-£225bn a year based on UK GDP for 2024.

To put that in human terms: imagine wiping out the economic output of Scotland. That is roughly the scale of what has vanished.

The picture becomes even bleaker when you examine what underpins that headline figure. Business investment is down 12%–18%. It means fewer factories were built, fewer laboratories opened, less new equipment purchased and less innovation. In the jargon of economists: we stopped building the future.

Employment is down 3%–4%: hundreds of thousands of jobs have never existed, never provided incomes, never supported families or local economies. Productivity – the long-term engine of rising living standards, and the key ingredient Britain desperately needed to fund decent public services – is down 3%–4% too.

If Brexit had delivered even one of the transformative benefits promised by its architects, those numbers might have been offset. But it didn’t. And the losses kept compounding year after year.

The economists dismissed as ‘Project Fear’ were, if anything, too cautious. Their forecasts predicted a long-term hit of around 4%. This new research shows the real damage is closer to 6%–8%, because the grinding uncertainty of the Brexit process magnified the harm far beyond what its architects were willing to admit.

https://julianhjessop.com/2025/01/04/is-brexit-really-costing-the-uk-economy-100-billion-a-year/

The majority of economists believe that Brexit has harmed the UK's economy

Its real per capita income in the long term, has reduced

JTG, Do you think foreign investment has generally avoided the UK as it is outside the EU market the last few years?

It can never be avoided,yes some don't want to admit how daft they and the gov was but....

Investment has been stymied by this disaster of a government , continually talking the economy down ( to score political points)  coupled with constant dithering and uncertainty and huge tax hikes on businesses.  Who'd  want to invest in that environment ?

I would have voted leave purely to get clowns like Juncker off my TV every night. I will believe that Brexit has harmed the UK if our growth and unemployment is worse than all of the members who are still in it.

You don't discuss it though do you ?  Just cut and paste or link to third parties.

And then when you get questioned you never answer but resort to playground tactics.

The damage being done to the country is by your hapless Labour heroes and will likely worsen after the Accounts lady has spoken on Wednesday.

I refer you to the second line of my previous post and rest my case m'lud.

https://x.com/LizWebsterSBF/status/1994052219834872250?s=19

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