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......... Brexit just goes from bad to wurst......

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By:
Foinavon
When: 29 Nov 23 18:29
The EU threatened Varoufakis with closing the banks and cash machines which would have been disastrous for ordinary Greeks. Nowadays with electronic money, one could say "So what?".
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 29 Nov 23 18:51
Cash is not a major problem, they could use euros for cash.

It's a separate floating currency that needs
to be created, and established, as per scotland
Indy debates.
By:
dave1357
When: 29 Nov 23 19:11
Scotland had no sterling debt. The dutch would have to pay back euro debt, while persauding the markets to lend them new guilder debt, which would be a tall order. They would have to force the new currency on the people, but unless draconain penalties were introduced, the new currency would be ignored and the euro still used and banks would all relocate and offer euro services from outside the country. So in short the dutch would be unable to bring in a new currency and have no banking system.
By:
lfc1971
When: 29 Nov 23 19:20
Scotland has sterling debt .. it’s a matter of
how much it would be responsible for
By:
lfc1971
When: 29 Nov 23 19:22
They would perhaps have to pay annually
to service that debt
By:
Foinavon
When: 29 Nov 23 19:28
It's doubtful if they could fund their current internal spending on their own let alone service debt. Bye bye free prescriptions and university funding if they ever leave the English teat.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 29 Nov 23 19:38
Yes 15 billion a month to service ridiculously high debt is not where they want to be.
By:
lfc1971
When: 29 Nov 23 19:38
It would be a bit tricky .. but if Scotland wanted to
leave that would be unlikely to dissuade them
By:
lfc1971
When: 29 Nov 23 19:39
I imagine it would be the same in Holland
By:
dave1357
When: 29 Nov 23 19:55
to move from the side argument, Scotland has no sovereign debt (that is simply a fact) and what it would have agreed post independence in terms of obligation, would be a matter for negotations and represent a huge bargaining chip which likely would have resulted in membership of a sterling currency union. Holland has sovereign euro debt, has banks with debts and assets in euros. All of these would cause huge difficulties if it had to leave the euro.
By:
lfc1971
When: 29 Nov 23 20:10
Of course if Holland has sovereign debt now
And Scotland doesn’t now - but will if it votes
for independence .. that puts Scotland into a more
difficult financial position than that of Holland
But I doubt it will really have too great an impact on how people vote
By:
sageform
When: 30 Nov 23 08:07
Nobody seems to address the issue of the EU economy without UK money. For Ursula to admit that they made a mess of Brexit says it all.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 18:48
Brexit preparations delayed pandemic response causing deaths

Hancock says if we locked down three weeks earlier, 90% of deaths in the first wave would have been avoided

Hancock says the reason for delay was because the focus was on Brexit and not on the pandemic





It's only handcock, but it's evidence under oath...
By:
sageform
When: 01 Dec 23 20:01
Without Brexit we would have been told to wait another 9 months for the French Covid Vaccine that never arrived. Macron tried very hard to stop the UK vaccine being approved but as we were no longer under the thumb, there was nothing he could do.
By:
Foinavon
When: 01 Dec 23 20:10
I wonder where Hancock got those figures from, Professor pants down perhaps?
By:
sageform
When: 01 Dec 23 20:44
I have spent some time thinking about the early days of 2020 as my wife and I were on holiday in Spain until March 5 2020 and at that point there was very little news about Covid other than a severe outbreak in Italy and of course what was rumoured to be happening in China was being kept quiet. I know quite a bit about the spread of virus and I was immediately surprised that a lockdown of British citizens was planned but air travel (ALL of it) was not banned. Planes are one of the most effective ways of spreading disease ever invented. I realise now that stopping human beings from spreading infections is impossible as we are all told that human contact is essential to our mental health. With animals (I was a livestock farmer) it is easy. You just isolate each group and use disinfectants and vaccines where possible but never allow any new animals in and only take them out direct to slaughter. As it happens I enjoyed the first 3 months of lockdown as I am a solitary person and I no longer had to socialise. The Government were of course the opposite. Socialising is the most important part of their job which is why they all caught Covid.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 21:15
The vaccine was used in uk under EU rules.

No delay, we just rolled the dice sooner.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 21:19
Handcocks figures are just extrapolations
based on events...

If its doubling or trebling with no restrictions
and falls 15% in lockdown you just shift the lines.

Must be fairly accurate.
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 23 21:53
Covid infections were falling before the lockdowns
By:
Foinavon
When: 01 Dec 23 22:02
Lockdowns don't work. If they did we would have had an opportunity to eliminate or severely restrict those diseases reliant on intimate contact for their spread. Have STDs gone away? I don't think so. If you want to know why, ask Hancock or Professor Pantsdown.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:02
Don't be stupid.

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/expert-opinion/100000-infections-every-day-why-uk-lockdown-came-just-time
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:03
That was to lfc, but...
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:07
If a virus makes you infectious for 14 days then if you isolate
14 days you won't pass it on.

If you have an std that is infectious for years, and remains dormant
In your body it won't go away by isolating 14 days or 3 months. When
you resume sexual activity you can pass it on.
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 23 22:16
If you use the data to determine when and how R changed -
this suggests that R was already down below 1 before lockdown

If that was the case then rather than surging new infections were on the decline
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 23 22:19
Just because B follows A

Does not mean that B was caused by A

Important scientific principle
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 23 22:20
Covid infections were already falling .. before the lockdowns
By:
Foinavon
When: 01 Dec 23 22:20
The lockdowns were for more than 14 days. I think symptoms manifest themselves after a few weeks and people usually seek treatment. The spread is dependent on some people within an existing chain or group making new contacts, the lockdown rules would prohibit that. Assuming that infected people were being treated then the incidence of new cases should have abated. The high profile cases of people flouting the rules was just the tip of the iceberg human nature being what it is,,,
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:21
It wasn't below 1 before lockdown.

It's hard to have measured it without adequate testing
and no test for asymptomatic infection.

Which is why actual figures are extrapolated.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:26
Who gets tested for stds if they don't have symptoms.

And many have symptoms which clear up so think
it's gone, but are still infectious.

I know how long lockdowns were, and used 14 days
as an example of an infectious period of a virus
like covid.

We never locked down 100%, I was able to go shopping.

We reduced transmission to get less new infections
than those stopping being infectious.

Lockdown worked, I know it's difficult for
some folk to understand yootoob talks bollox at times
but that's life
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 23 22:28
If you use the data to directly estimate the daily
number of new fatal infections from the data on daily deaths
and fatal disease duration - this strongly suggests that infections
were in substantial decline before lockdown , and that R was already
below 1
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:30
No it doesnt
By:
Foinavon
When: 01 Dec 23 22:37
I didn't get that off of Youtube, I was thinking laterally. I'm not an expert on STDs and I don't suppose you are either. It's likely some are symptomless carriers but if they were following the rules and observing 2 metre separation they would not be passing on STDs and cases would have abated. Was that the case? I haven't seen any figures nor have I heard the argument advanced elsewhere. I think it's a valid argument. Regarding the virus, if carriers are walking around an enclosed space breathing out billions of virus particles the two-metre rule is hardly likely to prevent exposure to them.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:40
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd39d6b8fa8f54d5c52de43/Impact_of_COVID-19_Report_2020.pdf

..
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:43
And telegraph


Lockdown shutdown of promiscuity keeps a lid on STI rates

Sexually transmitted infections plummet by a third in 2020, with drop in testing also contributing to record-low figures
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:47
And yeah, if I was infectious and went shopping
without knowing I was infectious and no masking was in place
it's likely I would have infected many people.

Not just those within 2 metres.


I used analogy at the time of cigarette smoke
and that simply fills any space,

Of course in early days we didn't know all of
this even if we suspected a lot of it.
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 23 22:49
There’s a difference between STIs and covid
Covid you can catch walking along - on your own - anywhere
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 23 22:51
It like comparing HIV to civid
HIV could be avoided by the vast majority
They are totally different things
By:
Foinavon
When: 01 Dec 23 22:53
Thanks for that, I will read it through with interest. From the summary, it looks as if there was both some reduction in demand and a winding down of access and provision of treatment and diagnosis. More time is needed to reach a conclusion.

These early findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic response, including social
and physical distancing measures, has led to a re-prioritisation and disruption in
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on prevention, testing, diagnosis and care for
sexually transmitted infections, HIV and viral hepatitis in England
4
provision of, and patient access to, health services for HIV, STIs and viral hepatitis.
Reduced demand for services during this time may have been influenced by compliance
with social distancing measures as well as changes in risk perception and behaviour.
The full impact on infection transmission and long term health outcomes will take time to
emerge and evaluate.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:54
Yeah we know, but it's an interesting difference
and lockdown was a test on lots of other forms
of infectious diseases.

There are years of study to come out of the lockdowns.

Doubtless a good few PhD options emerging.

Hopefully more good will come of them.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 23 22:54
Again to lfc.. ^^^
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