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No surprise at the top of the 2024 Republican candidates. Please keep him there!
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Any word from betfair about what they might be doing,
and when. Or are they taking all the mug monets on sportsbook? |
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The biggest rip off company in the 2024 candidates markets in Smarkets exchange and their Sportsbook (SBK). Their prices are ludicrously short compared to competitors. Wait until Betfair open their Exchange market then Smarkets robot programme will just copy their prices as usual.
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Some examples of how bad Smarkets are. Chris Christie for Republican Candidate, Skybet go 80.0, Smarkets go 16.0. Marco Rubio Skybet go 51.0, Smarkets go 11.5. I'm not joking!
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Oh, and Smarkets have been kind enough to allow you £1 on Tucker Carlson, the news guy, at an available 9.0. Try not to take the whole pound please!
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The only thing surprising about this development is that it has taken this long.
Dominion voting machines demands pro-Trump attorney Sidney Powell retract 'defamatory accusations' The attorneys say they have “clear and convincing evidence” that Powell has acted with “actual malice,” which is an important threshold in defamation cases. “There is clear and convincing evidence that you knowingly or recklessly disregarded that your claims about Dominion were false and made them anyway, and therefore acted with actual malice,” the attorneys wrote. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530677-dominion-voting-machines-demands-pro-trump-attorney-sidney-powell-retract |
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Well, after the disgraceful events of yesterday, where does that leave the Republican Party in their quest to regain the Presidency in 2024? Mike Pence will forever be associated with the Trump era but he gave himself a fighting chance of being considered as a candidate with his well thought out statement prior to events at the Capitol in which he made clear his duty was to the constitution and the American people, not one man. Underlining that he made an oath to God that he would be keeping was also helpful to the republican grass roots. Ted Cruz, on the other hand, may be busted already. There can be no doubt that the Republican senators who tried to defeat the will of the American electorate contributed to the violent scenes we saw in our homes.
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Tom Cotton definitely the winner from the appalling GOP antics yesterday. Cruz and Hawley will be forever tainted by the attempt to subvert democracy and can't be considered credible presidential candidates.
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Guys like Cruz and Hawley are now in an impossible situation candidate wise. A poll today says that 45% of republican voters believe rioters were correct to storm the capitol. Those folks support senators like Cruz who were trying to wreck the democratic process with fellow Trumpists. However, 55% don't believe it was correct. They won't support folks like Cruz.
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Republican candidate- I reckon you can easily cross out Trump, Donald jnr, Eric, Ivanka, Jared Kushner. Add to that folks like Tucker Carlson (what on earth is he even being quoted for?), Mike Pompeo, Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz. Kanye West is listed also for some unknown reason so that's another one out. So that's ten you can just put a line through right away.
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Hopefully Betfair will have their markets up on this within the next couple of days
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And there we go, first Betfair market up now...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176193 |
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And there is the first bet (mine)
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This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. |
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All the usual markets going up now.
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Shame it was put up so late. Although I'm not sure there would have been much liquidity even if it had been put up earlier.
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I think Betfair hands were tied until Biden took over.
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Thereafter the market will not be actively managed
Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets Are these 2 rules not contradicting each other??? |
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The actively managed bit is in-play.
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There is some totally mad betting going on here
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If trump gets balloted out by impeachment would bets be voided?
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Don't think so, he would just be an ordinary candidate, same as the rest.
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pmsl
4 years to go, will be a multi millionaire by the time this market is settled |
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Somebody is tanking money onto Harris as if defeat is impossible. I have just laid them 840-240.
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Trump price has gone out from 7 to 13 and still no takers
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Lol, I have just had my 28.0 Trump bet matched in another place. I guess the word must be out that he is not going to stand again?
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I am totally baffled by the run on Harris. What has changed? Not much, unless you count that the inauguration ceremony was today. To be Next President, she has paths but no certain ones. Joe could stand again in 2024, can't be ruled out. Even if he doesn't stand, there is no guarantee she will be the Democrat candidate. If she is, she still has to beat an unknown and potentially fresh Republican candidate. Prices like 5.0 are crazy, double that should be nearer the correct price at this stage.
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You've seen the stuff they post about Biden.
Same old money, but folk laying a book might want to get current favourites in there before they lose favour. It's quite hard to see where Harris price should be today, given that she's most likely still in the frame at least until 2023,and maybe beyond. I'm happy to watch, with money in pocket, but these markets have been goldmines last 2 elections. |
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Biden now out to 7.0 and Harris in to 4.8. Quite bizarre.
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Trumpers will have her evens by the end of the week lol
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They can have an even ten grand with me now if they wish
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I haven`t posted on here since election day, and I see many posts pondering my whereabouts, accusing me of running away. Here`s my post from election night 2016;
timbuctooth 09 Nov 16 08:40 Clinton concedes. Never in doubt. When it comes to late nights, I don`t think I`ve ever been accused of being a lightweight, GB2, I`ve been here all night! You might know I`m an Indie bookie, with a large part of my life determined by luck. It`s not a big step from `luck` to `superstition`, and if I find something is `working`, I stick with it. As such, when I was posting earlier, I noticed that every time I posted, events turned against me; as soon as I`d stop posting, things improved. So, I didn`t want to bok anything by posting, even ignoring Tom`s enquiries into my whereabouts. Sorry, Tom, but I just couldn`t risk posting. Well done all winners, but now it`s bedtime. Good night. So, as you can see, I have form for not posting about any result until it`s actually over. 2020 is now officially over, so I won`t be bokking anything by posting, and it`s time for the truth to be established, once and for all. In my absence, a number of posters have repeatedly lied about me, with pp being the main culprit. Some of you may recall that, pre-election, on numerous occasions I had asked these posters to stop their lying, to stop asserting that I had lost in the `dem nom` market, and that I offered up a challenge to any of the liars; if I produced PHOTOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE that they were lying, they would leave the forum forever and, if I couldn`t produce PHOTOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE, I would leave. None of them were brave or confident enough to take me up on it, with pp hiding behind the coward`s cloak of having blocked me, pretending he couldn`t see my challenge, and edy being particularly weaselly about it. pp even resorted to stalking me on the `Specials` forum, being his usual unpleasant self, but he was sharply hounded off by my fellow posters, who`ve known me long enough to know I was telling the truth, he was lying. The original lies referred only to the `dem nom` market, but pp has since extended the lies, to include the `POTUS` market as well, which he has bored everyone with, by repeatedly posting his lies. Here`s the PHOTOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE that, contrary to pp`s lies, I did not lose on both markets, I wasn`t `wiped out` as he has gleefully, maliciously and erroneously, posted frequently, I won. On both. (I`m not a techie, had assumed the clips would play one after the other, but seems not, you have to go back each time to get the next one. The first four are `POTUS`, the last three `dem nom`) https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq1E1UhR29p65vk2bkVmuaQ As posted at the time, both clients and friends have seen these lies, they have real-life consequences, so it`s imperative that the world knows pp has been lying all the time, while I was telling the truth; as such, not wanting anybody to be left with the wrong impression, wanting to reach every single person who might have read pp`s lies, I shall be posting this on numerous threads. |
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this thread should keep you busy for another 4 years, should be able to understand how the markets work by then, watching everyday
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The main betfair market seems to have settled down now. Harris price shortens and Biden/Trump drifting quite badly. Latest prices back/lay..
Harris 4.9/5.0 Biden 7.0/7.2 Trump 19.0/19.5 Trump has drifted from 7 a few days ago, no one wants him. |
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Market high on Haley being a key figure on the Republican side. Think Pence a decent back to lay, hasn't hurt his chances the last couple of weeks. How does Trump keep himself in the frame without Twitter? He'll need a helluva lot of help from Murdoch.
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Biden's age makes it a very tricky proposition. Would there have ever been a first term President at bigger odds than their VP to win the next election? Highly doubtful.
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Yes, fair point. However, Joe seems a relatively fit guy for his age. He cycles to keep fit and he seems relatively steady physically. I accept that perhaps he is not as sharp as he once was mentally but so are we all, I guess. He certainly will be assured of the best medical support in his current role. There is a further option and that is if Joe is perceived to have done well and is re-elected in 2024 but doesn't feel he can fulfil the role for another term, perhaps that would be the time when Harris steps in?
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lots of folk on twitter inviting the trump 2020 backers to come join the party for 2024
oddly the vibe isnt quite so confident and the big trump fans somewhat more reticent at the moment. |
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the mad rich punter could easily alter the market at any point
so beware, and get ready. |