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2024 USA Presidential Election
2024 USA Presidential Election
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There is a good chance many of the Democrat contenders will decide not to run to allow Harris a clear path to win the nomination like they did in 2016 as the party is desperate to have the first female president.
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They may also opine
8 years of kamala, then 8 years rep.. This might be my best chance? |
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That's right, and much depends on what the big donors want too.
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Harris depends on:
i. If she takes over from Biden and becomes President inside the next 4 years. ii. What platform she stands on. Is she a moderate who worked as a prosecutor or someone all in on the Green New Deal and rethinking the police? |
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A bit like Mike Pence I guess.
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Depends if Obama gets on board.
He's still a vital cog in who wins elections. Not sure he will get involved before nomination though,... |
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I think Obama prefers to remain above the fray to a large extent. Won't support anyone until they have the nomination locked up.
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It all depends on what Biden does. Impossible to say with certainty but could assign some figures to it.
A) Biden runs for 2nd term -50% B) Biden announces late 2023 that he won't seek 2nd term - 30% C) Biden has to step down during 1st term - 20% A) Highly unlikely Harris is nominee as inconceivable she would challenge Joe, though possible Joe drops out mid 2024 due to health, so perhaps 3% she is candidate by election day. B) No way she would get a clear run. She would initially be fav but it would be a now or never situation for Cuomo, and even if he ducked it like his dad did, there would be challengers. Perhaps less well known ones, but Bill Clinton and Obama were hardly household names. I think I'd give her about 12% of the 30% in this scenario. C) The best case scenario for her 2024 prospects, but not certain to be nominee. She would not have the usual strength of mandate, and likely to be challenged if things aren't going well. Gerald Ford was challenged by Reagan in similar circumstances. I'd give her 14% of the 20%. So for Democratic nominee I'd make the odds around 6/5 Biden 5/2 Harris 10/1 Cuomo 11/2 Anyone Else |
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That's true, Hillary was seen as a formidable candidate so many contenders decided not to run. Biden was intending to run but didn't, mainly due to the death of his son. The point I am making is that the DNC are desperate to have the first female president. As the party that prides itself on equality with a focus on identity politics, it would be shameful for them to allow the Republicans to claim the first female president.
As far as 2024 is concerned, I feel Harris will be seen as a stronger candidate after 4 years in the White House, but whether any other contenders decide not to run to allow her a clearer path will depend on many factors. If the polls suggest she is popular enough to win, I suspect many will de discouraged from running by the DNC. All I'm saying is be careful with your bets as you may not even get a run for your money. We will have to wait and see how things pan out. Biden might even go for a second term if he is still fit enough and feels he has not accomplished his goals. |
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Obama would only get involved in the primary race if it's close and there is a danger that the progressive candidate might win. He didn't have to get involved this year as Bernie's support fell away when the moderates united behind Biden after South Carolina.
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2024 Democratic nominee- Smarkets go 3.05 Biden, 3.65 Harris. Betfair may have settled the 2020 event hopefully by that time.
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Lol, dems may have
funds tied up on 2020 election so run lite campaign in primaries...  |
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Biden was intending to run but didn't, mainly due to the death of his son
I think Biden didn't run because he was persuaded he couldn't beat Hilary. And that Obama was the one that persuaded him. There was an - off the record - article that had the ring of truth, where Obama told Joe "You don't want your career to end finishing 3rd in Iowa". I got the impression that Obama and Hilary had an understanding going back to 2008 that she was next in line. I think perhaps Obama was just fulfilling her promise to her rather than really thinking Joe had no chance, and the article suggested Joe came to resent that, and think he could have beaten Hilary and Trump in 2016, and it was a motivation for him running next time. |
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I don't buy the 'wanting a female president' theory. They may well like that idea but the people with the power in the Democrats above all want to win. If Harris has very strong approval ratings that's all good but if not they will find some guy to get behind. The Democrats are now the party of Corporate America, and corporations are happy to have woke PR but they won't back a loser in order to tick a box.
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That could well be true, but he would also have considered it his final shot but the death of his son was probably the deciding factor. As it turned out, Hillary was not as strong a candidate in the general election as they thought and Biden had another opportunity.
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Yes, indeed. If female president was the priority then why not Hilary2020# !
Because ultimately Biden was more likely to beat Trump. |
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They won't get behind her and discourage others from running if they don't believe she will win. She will have to be popular in the polls, that is a given.
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Both are parties of corporate America tobermory. Unfortunately for the Dems I don't think they did their research well enough on how unpopular Clinton is outside of their bubble. I do agree though they won't simply go for Harris simply because it's time for a female president.
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By the way, I am not a supporter of Harris. I think she is overrated as an individual, but many influential people in the party seem to like her.
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Perhaps, yes.
He'll be 81 during campaign I think. Maybe give a less than 50% chance. But I wouldn't go much lower at this stage so I think it's a reasonable ball park estimate. |
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Hard to say for sure without inside knowledge and even then, people can change their minds. He’s already old though. My dad is 78 and still works doing medical French to English translation, some voluntary gardening, runs around a tennis court once a week and remains razor sharp. I very much hope and largely expect him still to be well, independent and all there mentally in four years but there’s no way he won’t be winding down at least a little by then. The thought that he’d take on anything major for another four years at that point is silly. Perfectly possible I’m wrong but I’ll be laying Biden in president and nominee markets, although I may take a back or two on first.
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Republican 2024 Primary Polling:
Trump: 25% Romney: 19% Pence: 14% Haley: 9% Cruz: 8% Kasich: 8% Rubio: 7% Carlson: 5% Pompeo: 2% Scott: 2% Santorum: 1% Leger / November 15, 2020 / n=1003 / Online |
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Republican 2024 Primary Polling (Without Trump):
Pence: 26% Romney: 22% Cruz: 12% Haley: 11% Kasich: 9% Rubio: 7% Carlson: 5% Pompeo: 4% Scott: 3% Santorum: 2% Leger / November 15, 2020 / n=1003 / Online |
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Kasich would be nice - unfortunately GOP voters aren't looking for moderate any more.
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"Would you like Trump to run for president again in 2024?"
Yes: 38% No: 62% Leger / November 15, 2020 / n=1003 / Online |
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Can you add me to the yes column please?
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Slogger
I saw your 78 year old dad last week He told me he was getting married again! I straight out asked him why a 78 year old man wanted to get married again? Do you know what he said? “ Did I say I wanted to get married! “ |
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That was a bit odd, WD.
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Aronchick to Judge Brann: "Dismiss this case, please, so we can move on."
He notes that the case hast turned "for some reason" into some sort of "lifeline" for the Trump campaign. "We need to move on. We need to get this election certified." |
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Brann calls for a 10-minute recess.
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The canvassed totals show Democrat Joe Biden beat Trump by about 20,600 votes, which is a roughly six-tenths of a point margin — close enough for Trump to file for a recount
He has until 5 p.m. on Wednesday to submit the $7.9 million estimated cost for a statewide recount and other required paperwork. Trump could also file for a recount only in select counties, which would reduce his cost and allow him to target areas where votes were predominantly for Biden. Counties would have to start the recount no later than Saturday and complete it by Dec. 1. Trump has been promising a recount in Wisconsin as part of fundraising pleas he’s been issuing since he lost the election to Biden, but a campaign spokeswoman stopped short of promising a recount on Tuesday. He talks the talk but never walks the walk. He will not stump up the money! Is he broke? |
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Too busy golfing
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Doesn’t want to waste the money he’s grifted on something obviously futile. It is endlessly amusing how often and obviously he lies and how blind his supporters are to it.
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I don't count Donald Trump junior, Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump or Mike Pence.
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Just gone through the current Republican senators, drawing a line through the no hopers and I am left with 27 of them. Ruled out Donald Trump junior, Eric, Ivanka, Tucker Carlson and Mike Pence. Added in Trump senior, Nicki Haley and Dan Crenshaw (born in Aberdeen). So that's 30 on the original short list.
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You think most likely from Senate and not perhaps Gov?
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Every chance a governor will be in the shake up also. Still to go through them but this guy, Charlie Baker, will be on my list.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Baker |
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There is also the 2022 USA Midterm election to consider. Some folks will be knocked out of the race, some that do well will enhance their chances.
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