Pompeo on 1% now don't matter.

If he is endorsed by Trump that could become 25-30% overnight, which likely would put him on top.

Iowa not Ohio.

Could well be. Think there's a twist with Trump at some point in the next 3 years though - it's too long a time in this day and age. He may well not endorse anyone - doubt he'd care, but even without endorsing someone he may take a big dislike to others if he didn't run (and his positive relationships would be clear enough).

I still think Paul Ryan is the best value.

He is the guy the traditional Republican donors would like to throw everything behind. But they won't engage in a futile contest with Trump.

However in a scenario where Trump does not run, and does not clearly endorse anyone else, you could have a crowded field of would be Trumpers, all getting in each other's way. DeSantis, Pompeo and Noem are all fairly well aligned with Trump, but none of them are Trump, who I think has a somewhat unique appeal. Ryan could beat them all I think, rather like Biden beat Sanders and Warren, who were both seemingly more popular but perhaps took support from each other and enabled Joe to come through the middle.

In an alternative world where Trump dropped dead in 2014, Hilary is early in her 2nd term and Paul Ryan is currently favourite for this.

Unlikely, but no harm backing at 500+ I suppose.

He has gained popularity with his battles against Fauci.

Ryan is 'retired' but why still make political speeches, like this a couple of months back...


“So once again, we conservatives find ourselves at a crossroads, and here’s the reality that we have to face. If the conservative cause depends on the populist appeal of one personality or of second-rate imitations, then we’re not going anywhere. Voters looking for Republican leaders want to see independence and mettle. They will not be impressed by the sight of yes-men and flatterers flocking to Mar-a-Lago.”

I don't really fancy Pence. De Santis is the obvious strong contender - ticks all the boxes if Trump doesn't run, but Tobermory's thoughts about a few Trumpsters going head to head may ring true. Agree on the no chance contenders.

Timbuctooth falling into the trap again of assuming that voters will follow Trump regardless.

Sorry, that should be all voters, not GOP only.

Kam Harris on twitter...

Virginia has an important election coming up on November 2, and we need all hands on deck to remind voters what’s at stake.

Sign up to make calls to voters today:

There is an incredibly small number of undecided voters in that Virginia event. Looks close to toss up stuff with whoever can get their vote out better likely to win.

FBI raids Washington home linked to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.

WASHINGTON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - FBI agents on Tuesday raided a Washington mansion linked to Russian Oleg Deripaska, a metals billionaire with ties to the Kremlin and to Paul Manafort, former U.S. President Donald Trump's one-time 2016 campaign chairman.

An FBI agent stood outside the house in one of Washington's wealthiest neighborhoods, with yellow "CRIME SCENE DO NOT ENTER" tape across the front of the mansion, while members of the FBI's Evidence Response Team carried boxes out of the property.


Friend of Georgie Osborne too, iirc

He has probably achieved that dubious accolade already.

Karl A Racine


BREAKING: I just added Mark Zuckerberg as a defendant in my lawsuit against Facebook.

Our continuing investigation revealed that he was personally involved in decisions related to Cambridge Analytica and Facebook’s failure to protect user data.

Some really dreadful approval ratings for Biden.


Imagine my shock, I mean what has his Administration done so badly apart from the Border crisis, Covid crisis, Afghanistan withdrawal crisis, inflation crisis, the Kamala crisis, Bidens obvious cognitive crisis... Biden and his mob better hope the teleprompter doesn't break mid read, or he won't be able to say anything at all. But other than that I thought his numbers would by sky high being the most transparent Administration in history, and the most popular President ever.

It just shows how poor a candidate Trump was.

No doubt about it, in the polls the GOP are closing the gap.

Obviously, serious political punters such as myself are desperate for Trump to stand again. His presence probably increases the betting turnover by a factor of two minimum.

These are probably traditional GOP supporters who would support the likes of John McCain, Mitt Romney or George Bush Jnr.