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2024 USA Presidential Election
2024 USA Presidential Election
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Trump is a fantastic guy to have in political markets. He is divisive but has an incredibly loyal support that generate huge amounts on the exchange markets, often trading at amounts that many consider poor value. He is so unpredictable that it is impossible to guesstimate his next move and laying/ backing him with any degree of confidence is impossible.
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Btw, there is a trend in the Trump price for any heavy backers/layers. Every time he has an upcoming rally (such as in Iowa) his price plummets, as folks hope he will announce he is running. When he doesn't, the price starts drifting back out.
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https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/13/trump-2024-pence-desantis-polling/
. Most GOP Voters Want Trump to Run Again, but Among Those Who Don’t, Pence and DeSantis Are the Leaders |
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Thanks pp - always first with solid, genuine news where others rant and obfuscate.
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I just simply look at (unbiased) polls. All the winners are in there.
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Trump gone favourite. I suppose that's fair considering his nominee odds/chance compared to Biden's.
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2024 National Republican Primary Poll:
Trump 47% Pence 12% DeSantis 12% Trump Jr. 6% Rubio 3% Haley 3% Cruz 3% Romney 3% Cheney 2% Cotton 1% T. Scott 1% Noem 1% R. Scott 1% Hawley 0% Hogan 0% Pompeo 0% @MorningConsult / @politico ~ 655 RV ~ 10/8-10/11 |
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Latest Trump 2024 Presidential election prices on here..
Outright 4.8 Republican Nominee 2.26 Popular vote winner 9.2 If you really are certain Trump will run and be the GOP nominee, it might be worth taking the 9.2 price for popular vote winner because it certainly won't be that price for long if he runs. |
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Problem with Pence is that, if everyone except him and Trump withdrew, he would still be less than 20%.
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Can't see trump winning popular vote
Surely almost impossible |
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tobermory
 Pence reminds me of Gerald Ford. Solid, stolid, wooden to the point of being as thick as a plank with the charisma of the same. |
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If you have got your money on Trump for nominee, you should at least have a saver on Pence.
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He is just a no hoper to me. Despised by Trumpers for endorsing the election result, and despised by Trump haters for being with him for 4 years.
A few independents might appreciate his conduct on January 6th, and winning independents is important, but they are not much use when you have hardly any support from Democrats or Republicans. |
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Ok, let's suppose Trump does not run. Who are the favourites to be the GOP nominee?
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Well DeSantis I suppose. Though I don't think much of him at all and think he would struggle with national scrutiny.
Paul Ryan is the most electable but unlikely to get near the nomination. Kristi Noem perhaps best value @70 |
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Where does DeSantis stand? What would be the point of him standing for Governor in Florida, November 2022, and winning, only for then to pack it and stand for President ? If he does that, Florida could be sticky for him on a good day, a must win GOP state.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58904507
. Is Trump's power over Republicans starting to slip? |
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ive been going with lay trump and back him .1 higher, just for fun, but seems a bit crazy cause will he not be rep nominee?
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Bannon seems in a bit of bother
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jeepers me, i am wondering what price would make sense
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I wouldn't be in the least surprised if Trump announces he is running, only to later announce he isn't.
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He can't be backed with any confidence.
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punter what is your current exposure to Trump on these markets?
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If Trump doesn’t run I think Pompeo has a shot. Not paying attention to polls at this stage. He is clearly going for the nomination if trump doesn’t run, and maybe if he does, and think he’d perform pretty well with the trumpsters etc. Possibly a poor man’s de santis, and may have no shot, but it’s my gut instinct anyway. He’s attracted a bit of money too.
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I know you are keen on him Daniel but I don't rate his chances at all. He is only getting 1-2% in any polls without Trump. You just can't see him winning from there.
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These polls don't matter at all at this stage.
Pompeo has a much better chance than Pence IMO. He is not a bad call as was one of the few cabinet members that hasn't burnt his bridges with Trump, so he could go far with a Trump endorsement. His problem is, having never been a candidate for anything before, he would be starting from scratch with raising campaign funds. |
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Sorry, I don't get the appeal at all. Pompeo is polling at 1-2% in polls of GOP members where Pence and De Santis, for example, are both in the high teens/twenties and even thirties.
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As said, those polls are almost worthless.
In 2007 Giulliani was about 13pts clear in the candidate polling. Was one of the first ones out. And that was 2 years ahead in the cycle from where it is now. |
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Yeah it's a game of opinions and you're probably going to be right as he's 30s+. I like polls sometimes, and sometimes I don't pay attention to them. 2.5-3 years away, and with a lot of uncertainty around Trump, I'm not sure about paying attention to polls on this with such a long way to go. They are pretty irrelevant I think.
He doesn't have the name that some do, but that could grow and again (if Trump isn't running), he could be a bulldog in debates, have Trump's endorsement, and some high positions previously. His chance on China is for all to see. He's possibly the most Trumpian out of them all. Just my view. |
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Btw, nothing at all is clear at this stage, won't be for a long time I guess, maybe I am just massively and wrongly underestimating his chances.
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stance*
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Here is a Democratic poll from October 23rd 2007
Clinton 51% Obama 20% We are at the equivalent of October 2005. I just think most people give very little thought to this until just before the primaries. They my give an answer to a pollster before then but hardly anyone has made their mind up. |
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Wonder what Trump was polling in 2013 before the 2016 election. Trump is an exception of course.
Buttigieg for the Dems? |
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I found an October 2013 poll, Trump was not included at all.
17% Chris Christie 16% Paul Ryan 13% Rand Paul 10% Jeb Bush 9% Marco Rubio 7% Ted Cruz 5% Rick Santorum |
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tobermory • October 16, 2021 8:40 PM BST
Here is a Democratic poll from October 23rd 2007 Clinton 51% Obama 20% We are at the equivalent of October 2005. I just think most people give very little thought to this until just before the primaries. They my give an answer to a pollster before then but hardly anyone has made their mind up. Obama was polling 20 times higher than Pompeo is now. Also, Obama was against one main contender, almost everyone is ahead of Pompeo. |
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Buttiegeg not going well I think. America has it's worst ever supply chain issues, he is meant to be in charge of it, but was on 2 months paternity leave with his husband.
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The Trump situation is a real possible. Someone could come from nowhere to take this.
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I like Buttigieg but black voters don't
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