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biden 3.35 or so to lay for the dem primaries seems nice, been building a small position against him, no idea why he's so short given the circumstances with dems desperate to avoid having him talk to the media. can't imagine him making it through another long brutal primary campaign again, and there's already signs dems are distancing themselves from him. terrible approval ratings, more covid deaths than last year under trump, bungling of afghan withdrawal, he must be truly exhausted
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Well, he is the incumbent so he doesn't have to go through all the democrat primaries/debates as before. He didn't do many face to face interviews with the media before becoming President because of his stutter mainly. His worst approval ratings are better than Trumps best and he was carrying out Trumps plan in Afghanistan.
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New Pew Research polling finds that 44 percent of Republicans want former President Trump to run again in 2024, and about a third of Republicans say they would not like Trump to remain a national political figure for many years to come.
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/forty-four-percent-of-republicans-want-a-trump-run-in-2024-poll-123068997663 these aren't great figures for a republican party which seems quite unable to prevent itself from endorsing trump if he runs again |
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If the right Republican candidate ran, he could give Trump a lot of trouble.
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https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/06/two-thirds-of-republicans-want-trump-to-retain-major-political-role-44-want-him-to-run-again-in-2024/
. Two-thirds of Republicans want Trump to retain major political role; 44% want him to run again in 2024 |
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Another problem with laying Biden now is that the price is likely to shorten, the nearer the event comes. There isn't an easy way to bail out.
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Agree, although is a somewhat similar problem with Trump and I’ve had lots of lays of him.
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Fats, even if Trump says he isn't going to run, folks will still back him.
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I have said before that Mike Pence could be a value punt for Republican candidate. He consistently comes in the first two in any polls without Trump and even if Trump were to run, I am not 100% certain Pence wouldn't.
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Can’t see Pence choosing to take Trump on or winning if he did but stranger things have happened. I think he’s too boring to win the nomination without Trump too but that’s a lot less clear. Plenty of boring candidates have emerged before and the nomination process is very hard indeed to call this far out.
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At this stage polling is name recognition as much as preference too, isn’t it?
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Yes. Trump basically dominates the betting market with his will he/won't he approach that means other candidates cannot commit as they would have little or no financial support.
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The California Governor recall election recently was close to a toss up. Then Newsom/Democrat team changed tactics and labelled the main Republican challenger a Trump puppet. It stuck. Result was 62-38 in Newsom favour. This tactic will be rolled out again again.
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Pence was out debated by harris
and out witted by a fly. |
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The will he won't he of trump
surely plays into Biden for rep nom too. If trump says no there's shirley a massive shake out in both camps. |
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If Trump doesn't run, Biden might not either, is certainly a real possibility.
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Trump price may be bottoming out soon perhaps. 2.6 looks short enough at this stage.
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Sorry scrub that. Just laid 2.2.
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He is 1.6 to lay on Smarkets but it's a slightly different market and you need to check the rules carefully.
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2.04 last price laid on here for Trump for Republican nominee. That is a very short price.
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It’s a bit higher now. Like the Biden betting, it’s largely having a flutter on his decision making and health, because both would be strong odds on to be nominated if running.
I wonder whether tober was right about not having bets against a candidate you don’t like. The anti Biden arguments are just the same as they were before he won last time and the belief in Trump ending up in jail hasn’t been supported by events yet either. |
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Yes, he has made his point well. Somebody clearly fancies Trump very strongly today as thousand pound matches are going in now. I have just been matched at 2.22 for a chunk which will do for now.
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I’m already v exposed on Trump next President so not wild about a load of nominee bets but might tickle it.
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..
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/harris-pence-vp-debate-poll/ .. |
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Could just as easily be fake
rumours so backers get cash back. Never has so much gullible money been available hanging on word of grifters. |
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I would ignore anyone around his camp saying he’s going to run. Means absolutely chuff all.
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His hotel was recently reported to have lost how much? We have no idea what his plan is, he’ll also be 78 for the next election, and the nomination is a way away with a lot of other factors. 2-2.2 on the short side at this stage.
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For full dramatic effect, don't be surprised if Trump says he is running but doesn't officially lodge papers, only to say he has changed his mind later because he will claim he has won twice already.
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Trump now trading at 1.91 with one bookie.
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I would ignore anyone around his camp saying he’s going to run. Means absolutely chuff all.
yes Trump just uses people so he'll tell them whatever suits him |
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As long as money is pouring in via donations to Trump, he will simply "suggest" he may run.
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Really cannot see why so many posts about why Trump hasn't declared his candidacy, as if this is unusual.
I can't think of any candidate declaring less than 2 years before the election, and we are more than 3 years out from it. |
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Hi tobes, I don't think he is in any rush to declare, far from it. If he keeps teasing that he may, the donations will keep rolling in to whatever account it is this week.
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I am happy to lay anything around the evens mark.
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Yeah, I expect he will just continue to hunt at it, which doesn't tell us anything.
I expect he will run because I can't see any reason why he won't. 'Afraid to lose again' is the main thing I keep hearing. But Trump is a completely shameless individual that doesn't accept he lost the previous one. Other than that it's just the people who always think Trump is 6 months away from being jailed. |
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*hint at it
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