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2024 USA Presidential Election
2024 USA Presidential Election
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just watching Biden walking at the UN yesterday (he looked like a90 year old) was enough to tell me he won't running in 2024
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Agreed Fats. Trump would have a far stronger chance of winning v Harris.
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Countering Trump, former President George W. Bush to hold fundraiser for Liz Cheney
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/countering-trump-former-president-george-w-bush-hold-fundraiser-liz-n1279847 is this the GOP fighting back? |
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Michael Cohen thinks Trump is just bluffing
https://www.businessinsider.com/michael-cohen-trump-bluffing-about-running-for-president-2024-2021-9?r=US&IR=T |
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"His insatiable need for attention is one reason he continues to flaunt this disingenuous 2024 run," Michael Cohen told Insider in an interview. "The other is he's making more money doing that than anything he has ever done before."
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Wyoming
George W Bush endorses Cheney as does many other US Senators, House Representatives and Cindy McCain. Trump endorses anyone that can beat Cheney, in this case Harriet Hageman, supported by nutters like Lin Wood. This is one of the reasons Trump is up against it in 2024. Recognised centre ground Republicans will not support him. |
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Which of them supported him for 2016?
They fought him all the way through the primaries. And it was no problem at all for Trump. |
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Tobermory, you are highlighting Trumps problem. This isn't 2016. Folks know Trump now, that is why they won't support him.
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He will win the Primary if he stands, I guess, but having the support of all Republicans, which he will need to be President, is a different matter entirely.
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I don't know where you get this 'the Republicans that won't vote for Trump' thing from. Trump just got 74 million votes.
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The primaries were different then.
Folk coalesce to defeat somebody, and find a candidate to get behind. That's how Biden was selected last time. Of course if trump can divide his opponents, if he stands, then he can win.... But at what cost? |
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Yep, he sure did but Biden got 81 million. These numbers were in part to do with Covid where over 100 million votes were made before election day itself. Trump couldn't win then and now, post 6th January at the Capitol, his centre ground moderate and independent support has collapsed.
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The January 6th event is only seen as a big deal by left wingers who hated Trump already. No evidence he has lost any support. Aren't his poll numbers the same.
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You citing polls now tobermory?
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
Here are Trumps approval/disapproval ratings. Check out what happens post January 6th. |
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YHTL. Trump was up against strong opposition in the primaries last time. True they did undermine each other to a large extent. But this time it will be a weaker, smaller field. He should be able to get 50% + in every state.
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I agree with Michael Cohen - it's a bluff he won't stand and come up with lots of reasons why it's someone else's fault.
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but he's making millons pretending that he might
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/03/trump-spending-millions-gop-candidates-502233 |
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He isn't up against weaker opposition though.
They lack name recognition at this point. He hasn't declared, and oppo will be keep to get behind one candidate. He's running at 55-60% against the invisible man |
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Be keen
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I don't think it's in much doubt that Trump would win the Republican nomination. What would become clear though is his lack of support from moderate members of that party. I have seen a new Harris poll from GOP voters...
Trump 58% Pence 13% DeSantis 9% Haley 3% Rubio 3% Undecided 14% If you have folks like Pence scoring 13% and 14% undecided, you have problems. |
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Put it this way, if Barack Obama wasn't term tied and he stood again for the Presidency, would he score higher than 58% amongst Democrat voters in a similar poll?
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Rubio,Cruz,Christie better than any likely opposition. Jeb Bush raised more cash than anyone. Who do you think could win the nomination against Trump. Ryan is the best the centreists have but he is very unlikely to beat Trump.
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Posted in error then.
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Obama would be on about 90%. Would have been ironic if Teump had gotten rid of term limits; Obama might have been president until 2037!
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Ok, so let's say that up to date poll is accurate ish. Add De Santis to Trumps total. That makes it 67-19 for Trump with 14 undecided. That is going to be a struggle if those moderate white, likely Christian evangelical family folks are not on his side.
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58% against invisible man is
not good. |
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Much to happen in mid terms
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But they don't have any bearing on the Presidential election
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I think they will certainly influence possible candidates whether to run or not.
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2024 National General Election Poll:
Donald Trump 51% (+10) Joe Biden 41% . Donald Trump 52% (+13) Kamala Harris 39% @Rasmussen_Poll ~ 1,000 LV ~ 9/21-9/22 |
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the future's looking bright again
 hang on America, only 3 more years of this nightmare to go |
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didn't Rasmussen have Trump ahead of Biden in their 2020 polling?
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I don't think so. They did get a lot nearer to the final % than the 'A listed' pollsters though.
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https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/1603743206-us-rasmussin-poll-puts-trump-ahead-of-biden-nationally
. Rasmussen one of the only 2020 pollsters to have Trump ahead. |
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These were also released today.
President: general election Sep 19-20, 2021 1,137 LV Redfield & Wilton Strategies Biden 42%. Trump Sr. 40% Sep 19-20, 2021 1,500 A Redfield & Wilton Strategies Biden 37% Trump Sr 34% Missouri Sep 18-20, 2021 1,014 LV Remington Research Group Biden 36%. Trump Sr.55%...... (41 v 56 In 2020) |
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LV is likely voters
A is all adults After sample size. |
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https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/24/politics/arizona-election-review-results/index.html
. Well, Trump was correct after all. There was a difference in voting figures once the forensic audit in Arizona was completed. |