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2024 USA Presidential Election
2024 USA Presidential Election
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It is. However, you have heard all these stories about folks losing every penny to Nigerian princes and the like, so it shouldn't surprise us that no matter how many times folks lose their money, they are convinced it is all a fraud, ri gg ed etc and they will get every penny back and a lot more when Trump is reinstated, Biden is in jail or something equally ludicrous.
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Trump now favourite in places to win 2024 Presidential election outright.
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Weight of money or bookies
laffing at mugs? |
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Probably weight of money as Afghanistan dominated the news and Trump/GOP constantly changed story/website to suit their agenda. Trump at 4.5 looks ludicrously short to me at this stage.
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As he was a true 10/1 shot in a 2 hoss race
last time, I think its a bit short. Bookies up Newcastle way have a similar offer to mugs of 1/2 Eddie Howe next Newcastle manager when others go 5/2 from 6/1 last week. https://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/newcastle/next-permanent-manager |
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Trump now favourite in places to win 2024 Presidential election outright.
that's got to be the biggest mug money in recent times |
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Having laid Trump all the way down and only done a bit of trading to and fro, I’ve not got a great position but am still wondering how low he can go prior to any announcement he’s standing (I still think rather likely that he won’t). I guess every few weeks of him avoiding major legal or medical trouble ought to shorten his price, in a rational market so perhaps a fair bit still although current price feels very short to me.
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If he goes head to head with
a decent rival he's likely a 5/1 to 10/1 shot, but will trade way shorter because the rampers have their marks set up ready to plunge. And it seems policy to promote his chances by forcing his price down to reap the headlines that brings. Almost impossible to know how short they can drive him in a weak market. Looking at the damage they did on shares, they can bring substantial funds to support. As we saw v Clinton, he can actually win given the right circumstances. |
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mid-2023 will be when most candidates announce they are running so there is no rush
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"If he goes head to head with a decent rival he's likely a 5/1 to 10/1 shot"
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I’d rate Trump a lot better than 5s to 10s in a general election, although I do think he’s a very weak and polarising candidate, who’s consistently underperformed the generic Republican numbers (plus quite possibly suppressed them too, so unpopular is he outside his base). Hard to say at this stage but I had it at 40% when I calculated all the contingent numbers a while back, although that was perhaps the estimate that was most generous to his chances.
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Yeah, I don't disagree with
too much, but assumed him up against a good candidate, such as Biden last time. Stick him up against another Clinton and he can win, perhaps even though less likely now there are more polarised against him too. |
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If he goes head to head with
a decent rival he's likely a 5/1 to 10/1 shot vs Biden or Harris?? People with TDS should avoid these markets |
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As he was a true 10/1 shot in a 2 hoss race
last time, Based on what? Laughable polls showing Biden was always 8-10 up in battleground states (that he won by less than 1%), and the assumption - by Biden backers here - that the 'don't knows' (Trump voters) would break evenly. |
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Tobermory diarrhea syndrome?
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How much did you lose betting against polls
tobermory? |
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Just does not seem that coming up with odds like that is the product of a rational assessment of the relevant factors, and so is more likely motivated by wishful thinking and hatred of Trump.
Trump narrowly beat Hilary and narrowly lost to Biden. So why would he then be a complete no hoper in an election that most likely would be against Biden again, or a weaker candidate in Harris? |
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Hmm, just had a post about this swallowed.
I don’t think it’s really possible to say what the true odds going in to the 2020, or for that matter the 2016 election were based on the n=1 experiments we have for each. Sure, Trump upset the odds and polls in 2016 but that doesn’t automatically mean they were wrong having him at 4s or so (was it?), going in. Similarly, him getting close in 2020 doesn’t mean the 3 or so was wrong then. It’s a bit dubious to say that a narrow win in 2016 means he should have been favourite then while using a less narrow defeat in 2020 to say he was too long then. Equally though, I think tober makes some good points that there are real risks in continuing to write Trump off and that there could be structural reasons why the polls especially miss some of his support. |
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It was a rational assesment
from last election that you riled against. I have already stated, a few times, that I don't see Harris as favourite v trump in a head to head. Some disagreed with me on that, hey ho it's a gambin' forum. |
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I think it's a case of diminishing returns for Trump. After his behaviour since losing in November it's hard to see how he will be anything other than less popular than he was in 2020.
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"a good candidate, such as Biden"
lol |
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Put it this way, I still think Trump is a really bad candidate but the structure of the electoral college does seriously favour Republicans and I could certainly make an argument I’d not be embarrassed by that he was underrated by the markets in both 2016 and 2020, by comparison with polling and modelling, even though that wasn’t my view at the time.
I think it’s hard to line candidates up against one another now too and I wouldn’t make Harris an underdog against Trump but I would prefer Biden, if I had red on Trump, which I I almost certainly will. |
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I'm hoping the rock is dem
candidate And trump feels the full force of the most electrifying move in sports entertainment The rock bottom for trump! |
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actually maybe Biden wasn't too bad a candidate, apart from his age
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Get the quote right mug!
a good candidate, such as Biden last time. |
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he’s a weak candidate v generic Republican.
yes the irony is that what Trump would call a RINO would stand a much better chance than him. The Democrats made Trump the issue in the Cali recall and they will continue to do this - they see this as the way to defeat the GOP. |
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I wouldn't say 3.0 was wrong for the Trump price. I saw it as about 1.6 Biden - 2.6 Trump, and I think Trump was in that 2.5-3.0 range mostly. My issue was the idea that Biden should have been 1.10.
YHTL, I haven't been railing against the election result. OK so you don't see Trump as underdog v Harris, just against a 'good candidate'. But the candidate is likely to be Biden or Harris. Biden is an OK candidate I suppose based on actually being 1-0 on Trump already, but he didn't win with much to spare, and in 2024 he is going to have a record to defend, and things have not begun well. At this point hard to see Joe getting all the votes he got last time, so I cannot see why he would be 1.10 v Trump. There is the - not far fetched - possibility the Democrats have someone else entirely but I am not aware yet of anyone that would be a cert to beat Trump. |
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It's like a game of bridge ( or trumps, lol)
Trying to finesse a trick, knowing Trump likely loses to Biden again, but others can win. |
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"Get the quote right mug!"
spell it correctly please mug = something you drink coffee from mugg = people like you |
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YHTL, I haven't been railing against the election result
I never said you did I was saying you backed him in last election. |
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the irony is that what Trump would call a RINO would stand a much better chance than him.
True. Paul Ryan would beat Biden or Harris quite comfortably IMO, but hard to see Ryan beating Trump. Still, he is my only bet so far @500. |
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Yes, I did lose overall on the election. But not because I backed Trump. I was confident Biden would not win the nomination and so built a big red on Joe. After redding out I got involved again around August and from that point reduced the loss to a small amount.
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Biden 4.8 - 5.0
Trump 5.4 - 5.5 Harris 6.8 - 7.2 Almost a coin flip these 3 v the rest. |
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Dwayne Johnson 80 - 90
Can you smell what the rock is cookin' |
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i wish someone would throw some small money my way
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Yes.
The market really needs some people adding that might be worth backing at big odds. There are 44 current US Governors not listed at present. |
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One thing that should be said is that Biden (if he is the candidate) has the incumbency factor which is normally helpful. Trump has not as such but he brings with him a solid group of Republicans who will not vote for him under any circumstances. Not just that but he will struggle for majority support among independent voters.
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