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2024 USA Presidential Election

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By:
Giuseppe
When: 22 Aug 21 21:11
she will only get it by default

all it takes is for one person to emerge from the pack
By:
Giuseppe
When: 22 Aug 21 21:12
sanders and clinton would probably ahve beaten her if they were included
By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 21:16
Maybe so. I am just confused by Magic__Daps demanding her to be very visible. Is that really in the job description of Vice President?

Are vice presidents meant to be policy setting and highly visible? I wouldn't be able to tell you many great political achievements of vice presidents (during their terms as vice president). Can you?
By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 21:18

Aug 22, 2021 -- 9:12PM, Giuseppe wrote:



The contents of this post have been hidden for this blocked user.

[Manage blocked users]


Elizabeth Warren probably has a plan.

By:
politicspunter
When: 22 Aug 21 21:18
2024 National Democratic Primary Poll:

Harris 33%
Buttigieg 11%
Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Abrams 6%
Booker 6%
Warren 5%
Klobuchar 2%
Yang 2%
Newsom 2%
O'Rourke 2%
Beshear 1%
Whitmer 1%
Gabbard 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Sinema 0%

@EchelonInsights
~ 514 RV ~ 8/13-8/18

This is the Harris Democratic Primary poll. 19% are undecided. So, of those that have expressed an opinion, roughly 40% pick Harris. It's not a great number, far from it, but there simply isn't any serious challengers.
By:
tobermory
When: 22 Aug 21 21:22
politicspunter, there are never any serious challengers 3 years out. Especially from the party that has the White House. There won't be any until Biden says he isn't running.

edy, Vice Presidents are mostly irrelevant, particulary first term ones, as it is automatic the main man will be running again. In this case there is seen to be a big chance Harris will be running in 2024, if so, total anonymity isn't going to be a plus.
By:
politicspunter
When: 22 Aug 21 21:26
I should say that the only candidate that threatens Harris in polls is Michelle Obama. She isn't always prompted for and she won't stand anyway.
By:
politicspunter
When: 22 Aug 21 21:31

Aug 22, 2021 -- 9:22PM, tobermory wrote:


politicspunter, there are never any serious challengers 3 years out. Especially from the party that has the White House. There won't be any until Biden says he isn't running.edy, Vice Presidents are mostly irrelevant, particulary first term ones, as it is automatic the main man will be running again. In this case there is seen to be a big chance Harris will be running in 2024, if so, total anonymity isn't going to be a plus.


Can you see anyone breaking through that maybe isn't on the scene as yet because the known candidates don't look a real threat to her chances. Btw, I am a fan of Buttigieg. I think he would make a fine President but black voters won't support him.

By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 21:49
I think it's difficult situation for Harris. You know how people already said before the election that she would be running the show. Biden was just going to be Harris' puppet all the way. Even quite a few folks on here were on about that.

If she was to get highly involved and visible now, that would undermine Biden, would it not? It would undermine any sitting president if his VP does try to be uncharacteristically visible for a VP, but it would probably especially do so with Biden the way things seem to be in the US (and some overseas actors). People would also accuse her of using her office, to extend her reach way past her job, in order to position herself ahead of the man she is meant to serve under.

So it's tough, right? Especially for a woman in a country like the USA. They don't seem to be cool and advanced like the Brits in such matters. There's definitely be some "Bish needs to know her place" that you wouldn't find in the UK.

As for anonymity not helping her chances either in the next primaries, not arguing that. I don't think Magic__Daps was really worried about that though.
By:
Giuseppe
When: 22 Aug 21 21:50
"Especially for a woman" Crazy
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 22 Aug 21 21:55
edy22 Aug 21 20:03
What change would it have made if she had visited when the crisis started off months ago


I imagine that after being told she was in charge of the shocking mess at the border, that she should have visited within days to actually show people she was actually doing something about the mess she helped create in the first place. Showing that she was trying to get to grips with the situation, showing some leadership, hands on qualities. You may disagree with that, but if you think by pretty much going into hiding is the thing to do in that situation then that's up to you.

I am also not "demanding" her to be visible either.

Will leave it there.
By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 22:35
You must be the kind of person who shouts "hooray, grand leadership" when politicians have PR shoots in rubber boots after a flood or are happily photographed shaking hands with covid patients
By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 22:55
You may disagree with that, but if you think by pretty much going into hiding is the thing to do in that situation then that's up to you.

I would prefer someone to make policy decisions, if they feel they are necessary, adequate and if that person actually has the legislative or executive power to make decisions, instead of doing PR trips. PR Trips that you called meaningless if done a few months into your perceived crisis, but if done months prior they would have shown leadership and hands on qualities apparently.

If there are a few border crossings into the UK, I wouldn't be particularly wowed by the amazing hands on leadership qualities if Boris gets himself photographed with a really, really tough thinking face as he looks worryingly onto the sea and jokes around with a few fishermen about harpooning the arrivals.

Just like I wasn't wowed by Armin Laschet traveling to the recent flood regions to be really, really hands on.

Be careful what you wish for too. Seeing migrants suffer hands on at the border might cause even an ice block tough law and order person like Harris to melt and open the borders.
By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 23:06
These things can also fool one.

Like when people were possibly fooled into thinking Trump was actually popular because he had a few big rallies, whereas Biden's campaign meetings with folks were restricted to being very intimate tea & cookies with two elderly fans.
By:
Giuseppe
When: 22 Aug 21 23:08
Trump is popular

he won in 2016, and would have won in 2020 too, without covid and postal voting
By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 23:15
How popular can you really be if you lose to Biden? To ****g Joe Biden...

And in 2016 Hillary Clinton lost the elections, but she won the popular vote. If more people vote for Hillary Clinton than vote for you, you ain't popular at all. The American Cousin of Count Binface would have won the popular vote against Hillary Clinton if he had been made the Republican candidate in 2016. As would have my hamster if I had faked a US birth certificate for it.
By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 23:17
So to lose that popular vote to Hillary Clinton...seriously...to Hillary Clinton of all the lizards in the world....pure disaster in regards to one's own popularity.
By:
edy
When: 22 Aug 21 23:26
edy • August 22, 2021 11:15 PM BST
How popular can you really be if you lose to Biden? To ****g Joe Biden...


and he even managed to do this, lose to creepy sleepy old demented Joe Biden that can't remember his location half of the time, in an election system that favours Trump and his party.
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 00:15
edy the popular vote doesn't matter

if it did everyone would just campaign in New York and California

it's like saying the premier league champion is the team with the best goal difference
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 00:20
hillary clinton was "the most qualified candidate ever to run for president"
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 00:22
how does the system favour the GOP?
By:
edy
When: 23 Aug 21 00:36
The popular vote does not matter for the election result, but quite obviously it does matter as a metric to judge the popularity.

The election system in the USA does have an inbuilt advantage for the Republicans (currently), because the average vote in the (traditionally) red states carries more power/weight for the electoral college and Senate than the average vote in a (traditionally) blue state. This is not an exclusive thing that only goes the way of the Republicans (and will forever do so), after all there are democratic states like Vermont where a vote carries tremendously more weight than Texas, but overall that system and weight of vote favours the Republican Party. Much more so in the Senate than in the electoral college, but also in the latter.
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 00:58
no, not really, because turnout varies

Trump could be very popular in Texas but turnout is low, so few votes

Biden could be very popular in California, with big turnout, so many votes

people know how likely someone is to win their state and this may impact votes
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 01:02
the current ellctoral college system isn't exactly proportional to population size, but the difference isn't big

in the senate it just so happens that many smaller states are republican

the senate has always had equal representation regardless of size

this really isn't a big deal

in fact it prevents the big states diminating the congress

the EU also doesn't allocate power on an exactly proportional basis
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 01:03
dominating
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 01:05
the system used to favour the democrats by the way

it enabled the antebellum south (which was largely democrat) to maintain an effective veto in the senate
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 23 Aug 21 01:21
I am always willing to learn, even if doing so makes me look a little uneducated maybe even naive or stupid.  I don't mind taking the risk and ask for forumites to give me sane, informed answers to my question.  I have simply never understood American politics and it's structure.  Indeed, I only just realised that Republicans ( who are surely the U.S. equivalent to Tories? ) like the colour red whilst the Democrats ( who are thus the U.S. equivalent to Labour? ) like the colour blue.  That threw me for years and years and years.  Equally, only the other day I was informed that Abe Lincoln was the first ever Republican president.  How can this be when the U.S. was created a republic in 1789?
Any way my question is this.
Why do candidates covet the job and spend multi, multi, multi-millions of dollars to get a job that pays about $400K annually and why do their sponsors and supporters do like-wise?  Where is the net profit to them?
All answers welcomed.  This is a free world after all - isn't it?!
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 23 Aug 21 01:22
And, what is the reason d'etre of the two houses - Senate and Congress?
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 01:27
red and blue is a recent thing, wasn't always like that

democrats and republicans didn;t always exist, in the past there were different parties (like the whigs / liberals in UK, they used to be one of the big two, now they are only half the lib dems)

two houses prevent the large states dominating

the lower house (house of represenatives) seats are based on population (so texas gets more than rhode island)

upper house (senate) each state has two seats
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 01:28
generally in politics

red = left

yellow or orange = liberal / centre

blue (or soemtimes black) = right
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 01:29
without the senate New york etc would be able to decide everything

montana wouldn't have any power
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 01:30
people and companies support parties and candidates because they want them to pass laws (or not pass laws)

gun lobby and the NRA will back republicans because they know republicans less likely to pass laws rstricting guns
By:
politicspunter
When: 23 Aug 21 16:06
PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
53m
2022 #FLGov General Election Poll:

Charlie Crist (D) 57% (+14)
Ron DeSantis (R-Inc) 43%

Nikki Fried (D) 54% (+8)
Ron DeSantis (R-Inc) 46%

The Listener Group/
@PoliticalMatrix
~ 1,000 LV ~ 8/14-18

Haven't a clue what to make of this new polling Shocked
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 16:10
must be an error
By:
politicspunter
When: 23 Aug 21 16:24
There is some real eye opening state polling coming out of Florida today. A completely separate company from the post above has Biden leading Trump 50-42, Biden leading DeSantis 49-47 and in a Republican Primary Trump leading DeSantis 43-34. Now, again I haven't got a clue how accurate that is but if Trump is receiving figures like that in Florida, he is definitely busted.
By:
A_T
When: 23 Aug 21 16:30
New approval polls for Biden put him in the high 40s - which his predecessor never achieved. That's gotta be crushing for Trump and his fans Laugh
By:
Giuseppe
When: 23 Aug 21 16:34
lol high 40s is terrible
By:
politicspunter
When: 23 Aug 21 16:38

Aug 23, 2021 -- 4:30PM, A_T wrote:


New approval polls for Biden put him in the high 40s - which his predecessor never achieved. That's gotta be crushing for Trump and his fans


Yes, incredibly high number at this stage.

By:
A_T
When: 23 Aug 21 16:40
It's certainly crushing for Giuseppe Grin
By:
politicspunter
When: 23 Aug 21 16:43
I have no idea what Giuseppe posts, he is blocked. Everyone should do likewise rather get caught in his scam scheme to defraud money from Betfair members. I see someone else started a thread on this problem earlier today.
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