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2024 USA Presidential Election
2024 USA Presidential Election
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The audit has to be audited before
release? |
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The kraken ate my audit?
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Harris down to 6.4 from 8, looks like a slightly delayed reaction to the Biden drift.
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Biden has been about 3.40 to get the democratic nomination all through this fiasco
don't think he has drifted at all? |
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He did touch 3 just before it and had some momentum, but drifted back to 3.4 when the Taliban took over and has held those odds since.
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ok fair enough haven't really been watching it
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https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/september-national-poll-americans-say-us-lost-war-in-afghanistan-blame-bush
. New polling including the first poll where Trump leads Biden in a match up ! |
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Interesting, that explains why Trump hit a new low of 5.8 this morning.
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Yes, I wonder if he is any closer to announcing a decision to run or not? He has the momentum and Bidens approval figures are sliding badly.
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Seems very early with the fundraising laws but you're right he has the momentum. I hope he doesn't though because the market will thin out and centre more on Trump.
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It's swings and roundabouts. Trump is a massively polarising figure who generates huge betting action.
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Trumpers clearly seek to manipulate
opinion by manipulation of betting markets. |
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And then of course there are the eejits that don't believe in opinion polls
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Far harder to manipulate
opinion polls. Maybe get embarrassed trumpers to be honest with pollsters would be a bonus for trump. |
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Polls schmoles!
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Here`s a scenario;
The Reps are guaranteed the House in the mid-terms, so The Don runs for a seat in Congress He wins the seat He then replaces nance as Speaker, becoming third in line for POTUS joe is 14th Amended kamala`s impeached The Don`s back! |
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Lol Tim, are you going to be wiped out again this time?
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Btw, no one is guaranteed anything in the mid terms.
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politicspunter Joined: 20 Mar 18
Replies: 3120503 Sep 21 13:00 Lol Tim, are you going to be wiped out again this time? Have you ever posted anything that wasn`t a lie? Here`s a reminder that I won https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq1E1UhR29p65vk2bkVmuaQ |
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Not again! Here is a reminder of some of your lay bets on Biden, from that link, AFTER he had won...
Layed £5,000 at 1.02 losing £100 Layed £41,000 at 1.03 losing £1,230 Layed £53,500 at 1.04 losing £2,140 Layed £45,280 at 1.05 losing £2,264 Layed £15,000 at 1.06 losing £900 Layed £15,000 at 1.07 losing £1,050 Layed £4,000 at 1.08 losing £320 Layed £2,100 at 1.09 losing £189 Total layed £180,880. Total lost £8193. |
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Go on Tim, tell me now those aren't some of your bets from that link.
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How is it possible for someone to use nine plays out of 500?, 800?, 1,000? as evidence that I lost? No, really, how is such a thing even remotely conceivable? And it`s done repeatedly!! How can Betfair allow such abject ignorance and diminished capability anywhere near a gambling site? It really is beyond comprehension, but it`s good to be back CHORTLING at you embarrassing yourself so badly and so frequently
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Tim, you yourself were on the main 2020 election thread on many occasions, backing Trump and laying Biden heavily. You lost heavily. You then made it worse by providing your own link showing you laying Biden after the election, when Biden had already won....
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq1E1UhR29p65vk2bkVmuaQ |
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Those are facts Tim, posted by yourself.
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Prove me wrong Tim, tell me that those aren't some of your lay bets on Biden after he had won?
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Don`t know why I wrote `14th`, obviously should be `25th`
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^
Even though she was certain to run from early 2005 |
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People who didn't believe polls saying Biden was 7-10 pts up in mid west states (that he won by less than 2%) were quite right.
Were they? How does anyone know for certain how exact or accurate each poll was when it was conducted. All that was certain was that for Trump to win any of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, he needed a polling error outwith the margins of error. He achieved that margin of error but still lost all four. |
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Polls that have somebody 7 to 10
points up in a two horse race are subject to a 6% sampling error. That should be built in. Did trump win the election? |
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Btw, the polling margins of error could just as easily have been in Bidens favour and he could have won all four states by huge margins.
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But Biden was never going to win any of them by huge margins.
My comments on the thread for the last 3 months were consistently that the polls were overstating Biden support and it was basically a coin flip. |
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It certainly was not a coin flip, far from it. Trump closed the gap in the last week but he was so far behind, his task was huge. You need to consider that despite Trump closing the gap and achieving results outwith the margins of error, he still lost all four states. Biden was a fabulous bet to win all four. He did.
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Did 'Trump close the gap', or was the big gap in the state polling always a flaw in those polls?
Nothing went right for Trump in the last couple of months... covid went on soaring, he even got it himself in an almost comical way. There were a lot of hopes riding on the debates but Trump didn't even win those. |
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Well, either you are correct and those states were always toss ups or almost every single poll was wrong.
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The Don runs for a seat in Congress
Is this what the MAGA crazies think is going to happen? Yes, I wonder if he is any closer to announcing a decision to run or not? He has the momentum and Bidens approval figures are sliding badly. No chance until much nearer 2024 - election fundraising comes under close scrutiny and there's no way Trump will want his grifting looked at until the last possible moment |
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Trump increased his vote
This is an important fact. But, he lost a lot of more moderate supporters. The polls did suggest gap closed in run in, this even showed up in poll trackers using decay formula. If you had chucked out older polls quicker, and given more weight to more recent polls then it was even clearer. |
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Biden got record vote, but this
was predicted, I remember posting about it, |