Politics
2024 USA Presidential Election
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I may be wrong by my recollection is Trump was not matched much above 100, maybe near 200 for a small amount. Look at this 2024 one: 'The Rock' has not been matched higher than 190
Trump was always hinting at running for decades, and was more politically involved with the 'birther' thing, so was never on the Meghan Markle/Oprah level of novelty candidates. |
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The 2016 market only had 48 runners, compared to around 120 in 2020.
So I guess the market was either created later in the cycle, or they were more stringent in only adding serious candidates. |
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Thank you. What's your gut feeling regarding the 2024 Republican nominee market?
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I feel Pence has been written off too early, I think he is still in this.
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He's had some big bets go in on him. More traded on him than both Haley and DeSantis. Someone likes him.
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Trump The Impeachment Champion 1oz Silver Round
https://www.dismecoins.com/product/trump-the-impeachment-champion-1oz-silver-round-presell/?unapproved=72707&moderation-hash=e82a982489af064e1c4a79e8fd0be0dc#comment-72707 I can't work out if these are a joke or not - it being America probably not  |
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It's so bad it has to be true!
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http://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1776936a08d49629804301c68c2b2a4f2a316be4cb064cc43d200cdbcfec9ff2.jpg
. Tempting! |
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New poll out today says 15% of Republican voters will not vote for Trump under any circumstances. That is a huge number in a traditionally close race.
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what % of them might change their mind if he became the candidate - talks is very cheap this far out and what % currently identify as republican for that matter, I'd imagine there is a lot of soul searching going on within moderate republicanism. ... if such a thing exists...
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They still won't vote for him. There is a solid core of GOP members who are totally opposed to Trump running and if he did run, definitely would not support him. That doesn't mean to say he couldn't win against someone like Harris but he would lose to Biden.
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There was quite a healthy number that were opposed to him last time wasn't there ?
not as passionately admittedly as is now possible ... early on as the odds you quoted reflect he wasn't even considered a legit runner really was he in 2016 ? ...I'd be amazed if he successfully gained re-election mainly because of not gaining the Republican candidacy or his ongoing difficulties in legal matters ... but I was also amazed he not only got voted in but that so many people continued to support him in terms of voters and Republican politicians or at best 'turn a blind eye' to his very obvious flaws...they had plenty of opportunity to disown his style of politics...they largely didn't |
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15% won;t vote for trump
probbaly get a similar number for biden |
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Some time shortly, the GOP top brass are going to realise that Trump has them over a barrel regarding 2024 and whether he is going to throw his hat in the ring or not. Other possible candidates are highly unlikely to run if Trump does. Effectively this means that funding, campaign teams and general organisation/ administrative matters are up in the air.
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https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178165812
. You can lay Trump at 13.5 for a grand in this market. The only way you can lose is if.. a/ Trump runs- possible and also.. b/ Trump wins the popular vote. I don't give him a hope in hell in b/. |
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Biden's hit a new low of 4.2, he's still over 2/1 in the nomination market though, implied odds of 1.4ish to win head to head Vs Republican nominee.
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https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/40k9knkv6y/20210803_yahoo_vaccine_tabs.pdf
. An excellent new in depth poll from you gov with voting intentions linked to vaccinations. |
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Biden hit a low of 3.9 before the Afghanistan shambles, now drifted to 4.8 last matched price.
Trump's been backed into 8.2. |
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Trump at 8.2 is a poor price for a likely non runner/ defeated in final candidate.
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Why is he a likely non runner? Surely 50/50 at worst
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One chance in three at best I feel. With Trump it's impossible to know what he will do next but could he face the prospect of defeat (again- but not in his eyes) ?
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Trump has been defeated, bankrupted multiple times, he's not gonna be scared of losing.
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Well, he might have defeated in the eyes of you and me, but in his eyes? Nope.
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Well then, he is hardly gonna worry about losing again. If that happens he will just say it was a fix again.
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You could easily be spot on. With Trump, frankly, it's anyones guess what he may do or say next. I don't think he will win though unless it's Harris he faces, where I make him a 50/50 shot.
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Ron De Santis price for Republican Nominee shortening today. If Trump stood, he would face some incredibly awkward questions regarding Afghanistan. I believe his policy of withdrawing troops was correct but to distance himself from Biden continuing that plan makes no sense to me.
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Well Biden has awkward questions about it. And what sense does it make for Biden and his supporters to blame Trump for it.
Trump and Biden will blame each other but clearly they are both responsible, though I think most people will not have a problem with the policy. It is worse for Biden right now because of how chaotic it is and Trump can claim it would have been an orderly withdrawal if he'd been in charge. In 2024 it will probably not be an issue unless terrorists are launching attacks from there. |
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Not sure yanks give a flying one about Afghanistan.
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There is little chance of Biden being re-elected imho.
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Was only 6 months or so ago the “haters” were telling us Trump wouldn’t be running, he’d be in prison, one nutjob claiming child sex abuse charges were imminent, now they are discussing his chances, no doubt they will shortly be claiming to have got on at long odds.
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politicspunter 26 Jan 21 11:12 Yep, might take up to six weeks before the first court cases appear. |
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Well, as that post was made on the 26th January, it would probably have been more relevant then than now.
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Yes, that’s the irony, the guy who was convinced, and trying to convince others, that Trump was about to serve serious jail time, is now discussing the possibility of him becoming the next president
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I will say you weren’t alone though, other haters on that bandwagon.
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