Politics
2024 USA Presidential Election
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Holding fire for the moment but if I had to back one I think Haley at 9.6 would be the one.
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Trump would easily win the nomination. I wouldn't think his legal issues are that big of a factor. Obviously he is not some honest businessman but I don't see the authorities nailing him for something after all these years. People that are getting excited about him going to jail are the same ones that were telling us 'wait for Mueller!' and thinking he was likely to be removed by impeachement, Peegate etc
How likely he would be to win the election depends on a few things. Leftwingers assume most of the country will be happy with 4 years of Democrat rule, and so the result would be the same or worse for Trump. But already there are bad signs, for example, decades of declining murder rates are being reversed, so that many cities are back to where they were in the late 1980s. That could just be a blip caused by unusual times, but if it isn't then the Dems can forget about winning even half of the non partisan, independent voters they got in 2020. Obviously immigration is another area where the lack of control is going to be associated with the presidency. Seems to be the best hope for the Democrats is that Biden can hold it together well enough to run again, because Kamala Harris is utterly dreadful in every interview. |
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Well funnily enough that’s what trump backers, GOP etc tried to say about Biden (interviewing) in 2020. Didn’t go so well.
Everybody knows trump would easily win the nomination, considering half of the field and the main candidates wouldn’t even stand. Hi timber. Still waiting on Trump coming back into office after that election last year?  |
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Haley is reviled by maga, which is 90% of the republican party
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trump will get rid of all the globalist, party of davos stiffs soon
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I won’t be following your advice after your musings on the last election. That didn’t go so well for you. Pre, post, or during.
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Although Trump is the clear choice of Republican candidate in polls of GOP (DeSantis, Pence, Haley are next) the simple fact is that Biden ha a rock solid 10-12 point lead over Trump for the Presidency in every poll. Trump cannot win, as things stand, because not only do independents clearly favour Biden, there are GOP supporters who won't vote for Trump.
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Well I suppose be wary of polling considering the last 2 trump elections but more to the point 3.5 years is a long way away and things can change hugely. Including death. Stating the obvious I know.
Just interesting to see if trump runs or not. |
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From a betting perspective if the last 2 elections are anything to go by - hopefully he does
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A 10-12 point lead 3 and a half years out, when Biden is gonna get a pass from most people during his first year anyway, is really meaningless.
Daniel, it was thought Biden would fall apart in debates, speeches and interviews, and, while hardly being very impressive, he did OK, so exceeded expectations. It is known that Harris is dreadful, because we have already seen it. The ''we've been to the border'' interview was cringeworthy. |
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Yeah perhaps. I thought Biden did much better than OK myself. He balanced everything really quite well and far outperformed trump in the debates.
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Trump had three horrendous hosts who spoon fed Biden, goaded him and asked questions that were completely biased
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Haley I don't think is good value as she can't beat Trump, and spoke against Trump, which means she is unlikely to be forgiven by the MAGA hats, although she has tried to walk back her criticism a bit. Conceivably though she could be forgiven by Trump himself, as he doesn't really care what people said about him years before, if they are on his side at the moment. So couldn't rule out him endorsing her. But it all depends on what the reason would be why he was not standing himself.
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Trump has a much better chance against Harris, it's close to toss up stuff.
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Haley is part of the uniparty, worthless China shills and sell outs
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Harris is grotesque, that cackling is unreal
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Politicspunter, the independents are never going to be rock solid. If 2024 USA has the crime rates of the 1980s, after decades of improvement, then the Democrats are going to be blamed for it.
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For someone who was so far off the mark in the last election (even after it, amazingly), you are still quite sure of yourself Timber.
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I think Pence is the one Trump least likely to endorse!
Politicspunter there is no way independents are a solid block against Trump, or else they wouldn't be independents. Likely a couple of million of them voted Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, without much enthusiasm either time. |
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They are independents in so much as they are not tied to either main party. They are just as likely to support a green, libertarian or other indy as anyone else but Trump is well down the list. In a close race, it's these folks that often decide the winner.
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They are just as likely to support a GOP as a democrat though, as long as it isn't Trump.
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Hopefully, Trump runs again as he is a licence to print money, one way or another.
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So, here is where I see it so far...
Biden will beat Trump. Too close to call- Biden v De Santis Haley v Biden. If all the GOP unite behind her, I think she has a winning chance. Trump v Harris- toss up. |
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These are the premiums on the election winner market over the nominee market. Very crude but they give some indication of what odds they will be to win the election if nominated.
Biden - 1.67 Harris - 1.8 Trump - 2.45 DeSantis - 2 Haley - 2.5 Pence - 1.6 Pompeo - 2.6 T Carlson - 3.25 Buttigieg - 2.7 |
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2024 National Republican Primary Poll:
DeSantis 21% Pence 14% Trump Jr. 7% Haley 6% Cruz 6% Romney 4% Rubio 3% T. Scott 2% Carlson 1% Abbott 1% Noem 1% R. Scott 1% Cheney 1% Christie 1% Pompeo 0% Hogan 0% Cotton 0% Sasse 0% Hawley 0% @EchelonInsights ~ 386 RV ~ 6/18-6/22 |
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DeSantis is an awful candidate.
14% is probably Pence's ceiling so he has less.chamce than the 0%s |
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Well, looking at the candidates, if Trump doesn't run, De Santis looks a clear favourite for his endorsement unless of course the GOP commit suicide by putting Trump junior up.
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I wouldn't write Pence off. He has very strong support in the bible belt traditional republicans.
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Smarkets have some new interesting markets up regarding the 2024 election.
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I was looking at the prices for the next President market. Kamala Harris is best priced 5.5. Is this fair value? I don't think it is because there are quite a few obstacles in her way...
1/ Biden would need to announce he will not be running again. (50/50 ?) 2/ She would need to get the democrat party nomination (likely but not certain 80/20 ?) 3/ She would have to beat the republican candidate (50/50 ?) 4/ Probably a few other possible obstacles like health/scandal/family commitments along the way. A lay of Harris at around the 5.0 mark seems a fair strategy at this early stage. |
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Voting rights: How the battle is unfolding across the US
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56287375 The land of the free? It's more like North Korea  |
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I wonder what sort of time frame we are looking at with Trump announcing if he’ll run or not.
0-3 months? Before the end of the year? 2022? Harris isn’t an attractive proposition is she |
