I suppose if Trump was going to run, with a view that the Republican Primaries will probably be starting in January 2024, he would probably fill in this candidacy statement in autumn 2023 at the latest?

NEW: Accounts tied to Chinese billionaire -- and Steve Bannon backer -- Guo Wengui hyped a leak of Hunter Biden's hard drive weeks before those NY Post stories.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
5m
Joe Biden Approval Rating (8-9 May):

Approve: 52% (-1)
Disapprove: 36% (+1)
Net: +16% (-2)

Changes +/- 21-22 March

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
3m
US House of Representatives and Senate Leaders Net Approval Ratings (8-9 May):

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: -3%
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy: -5%
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Shumer: -4%
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: -17%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
42s
Does the American public support or oppose President Biden’s plan to withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan by 11 September 2021?

Support: 53%
Neither: 22%
Oppose: 20%

71% of 2020 Biden voters and 36% of 2020 Trump voters support the plan.

Trump has completely destroyed the GOP. The party is completely split with half believing that their democratic process is corrupt and that they need to stop others voting in order for them to regain power, rather than to adapt and introduce new policies.

why would pp mean that?

The GOP are destined to continually lose ground if they don't give up on the ludicrous conspiracy theories suggested of the 2020 election. Trump, in his one term, managed to lose them not only the White House but also the House of Representatives and the Senate also. Now, there is a way back and that is to accept the democratic process, the same one which previously elected Republican Presidents and administrations. If they don't, disaster beckons.

Where does it leave the moderate Republicans though? "Normal" traditional family folks like Romney, Ryan, Cheney and their supporters are becoming increasingly isolated form the party, entailing some very nasty Republican primary events for the 2022 elections.

Where does it leave the moderate Republicans though?

they seem to want to "move on" but the Don is not going to allow that

Biden's approval rating, per the
@FiveThirtyEight
polling average:

Today (5/24): 54%
One month ago (4/24): 54%
Two months ago (3/24): 54%
Three months ago (2/24): 54%

You don't have do your research and prep. pp.  Impressive.

Quite a big change in the market the last few days. Looks like a new layer has joined it and improved on most of the odds outside the big 4. Book was around 98% back and 87% lay last week, now 91% back and 81% lay.

Thank you, will have a look at that.

Tucker Carlson and Darren Beattie suggesting the "Capitol Insurrection" was a false flag orchestrated by the FBI in an effort to "suppress political dissent" is at least getting the conversation started.

How long until this "conspiracy theory" becomes reality

https://rumble.com/vilkx3-tucker-carlson-fbi-involved-with-capitol-insurrection.html

NOW TO BE CALLED THE FBI INSURRECTION

Darren Beattie at Revolver News exposes the events that transpired at the Capitol Building on 1/6 which may have to be renamed as "The FBI's Insurrection" in this highly important piece that weaves the similarities between the Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer “kidnapping” plot and the "siege" at the Capitol.

Remember, of the 14 individuals who allegedly plotted the “kidnapping” of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, at least 5 were undercover agents and federal informants.

FBI operatives played the most important leadership roles in Michigan:

-The plot’s “explosives expert,” who the plotters were accused of planning to buy bombs from, turned out to be an FBI agent.

-The head of transportation for the militia outfit turned out to be an undercover FBI agent.

-The head of security for the militia outfit turned out to be an undercover FBI informant.

In one of the plot’s climactic scenes, in the main van driving up to look at Governor Whitmer’s vacation home, three out of the five people in the van — 60 percent of the plot’s senior leaders — were federal agents and informants.

In other words, the FBI-DOJ were central in setting in motion a conspiracy blamed entirely on patriot/militia groups.

Now, in the case of 1/6 at the Capitol Building, there is a unusual volume of "unindicted co-conspirators" who played significant leadership roles at the Capitol Building often far more egregious and aggressive than those of the persons actually indicted.

How many of these "unindicted co-conspirators" were federal undercover agents or confidential informants and what roles did they play (merely passive informants or active instigators)?

Justice Department suing Georgia over state’s new voting law

https://apnews.com/article/ga-state-wire-georgia-voting-rights-laws-voting-c552e88d294e5f35e2eea595177bc4b5

Apparently Trump has lost a lot of weight (with his golf outings) and is now in decent health? That's what I read anyway. Maybe COVID gave him a kick up the backside like it did with Johnson (although they soon revert to type).

No idea on question 1 or 2. But one answer I do know that he will declare whether he's running or not when the timing suits him and not the republican party. Thus, his potential timing (or late timing) could impact Republican preparation and other candidates - but obviously Trump doesn't give 2 hoots about the GOP or them.

Anyway, I'd say:

1) Unlikely. (He'll weigh it up, and maybe eventually come to the conclusion that a comeback to the presidency would be the biggest Ego trip ever, but then the realisation will dawn that the counter of that would be humiliating). To come back and run, and then be slaughtered - would be the humiliation of all humiliations. That possibility will probably prevent him running).

2) Too many hypotheticals to even speculate (as you say).

With 1 being unlikely as far as I'm concerned I think there's value elsewhere - think of a Trumpy type candidate who may get his backing if Trump doesn't run himself. De Santis being the obvious one, and Pompeo still interests me. Haley an obvious large player.

I don't give Pence, Trump family members, hacks like Cruz or the likes of Tucker Carlson much shot.

Personally, De Santis looks like non Trump candidate one but I think Haley could be a terrific option.

Hi PP. it’s an interesting betting market and probably the most interesting in many ways.

Wonder when Trump will grace us all with his decision. Could be a way away.

It’s hard to say whether there’s any value or not but clearly if you think trump runs anything around 4 is great. If you don’t de santis and haley look tasty prices. If he runs they are non starters (Haley at least)