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2024 USA Presidential Election

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Replies: 17,003
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 01 Mar 21 11:19
Ok, how you think polling 4000 people out of 330 million is a true representation of what a whole nation thinks is up to you.. You can basically pick and choose who, and where you poll to get what result you require when the numbers are so minute.

I am in Bristol and could have polled about the "Colston statue" that got torn down, for keep or remove. Depending on what my stance is on the issue, I could get whatever result I wanted by choosing where to poll within the city. I could easily get 90%+ for either result if I wanted to.
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Mar 21 11:23
May I ask you something please? Do you bet on politics?
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 01 Mar 21 11:46
Yes, not on all Politics, and not all the time but some events. I actually bet DeSantis weeks ago but was restricted on the stake.

That still doesn't address my point about the miniscule polls, and how they can easily be conducted to get what result you want to achieve to suit, due to the numbers being so pathetic.
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Mar 21 11:50
Well, as you bet on politics, what information do you use to decide who to back?
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 01 Mar 21 12:23
Not polls. Even if I did I wouldn't use a poll conducted from 4000 people out of a population of 330 million, it's ludicrous.

As I pointed out, I could easily get what results I wanted to on an issue that divides many here, and easily achieve a landslide result for either side of the debate, if I simply pick and choose who/where I poll and how many. Now if I polled every single person/household in the City I would get an actual picture of a general consensus. I think I would have to poll 9 people to be on the same percentage of population as your earlier poll. As I said, ludicrous (in my opinion).
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Mar 21 12:33
I see. From the point of view of any polling company (politics tends to be a relatively small part of their business) what possible benefit would it be to them to publish a poll that is massively biased in the favour of a particular outcome? Their business would collapse if that was seen to be the case.
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 01 Mar 21 12:39
What benefit is it to them (or anyone) to produce a poll of 4000 people out of a population of 330 million? They may not have gone out their way to favour any outcome at all, but 4000 people could be polled in one City and have a totally different view of 4000 people in another City, why anyone would take that result as an indication of a whole country is beyond me. The miniscule numbers polled means absolutely nothing to the bigger picture.
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Mar 21 12:43
Well, it really depends on the area the company is polling. If it is a UK poll for example, respondents are asked throughout the UK. They are also categorised into brackets such as age, gender, race, past voting intention, income etc in order to gives as representative a sample as possible to the polling area concerned.
By:
A_T
When: 02 Mar 21 08:16
The Don and his Mrs had the vaccinations but kept it quiet

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-got-covid-vaccine-january-1135185/
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Mar 21 08:57
Do you think former Pres. Trump is responsible for inciting violence against the gov't of the US, or don't you think so?

REP
Responsible 11%
Don't think so 89%

DEM
Responsible 96%
Don't think so 4%

IND
Responsible 52%
Don't think so 41%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 2/11-14/21)
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Mar 21 13:24
Ron De Santis continues to attract sustained support for the Republican nominee position. The biggest price I saw was 34.0, one bookie was forced to cut it to 5.0 to stop folks backing him and his price has settled (for now) around the 11.0 mark.
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Mar 21 13:28
The next Florida Governor election (De Santis post) is due for election in November 2022. That would seem to me to be an appropriate time to bow out from that role if the 2024 Presidency is the target.
By:
A_T
When: 02 Mar 21 17:20
Mary Trump says her uncle will only pretend to run for 2024 in order to make money

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-only-pretend-run-2024-123710801.html
By:
dave1357
When: 02 Mar 21 21:40
well he pretended to be a president to make money, so seems logical.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 03 Mar 21 18:46
#BREAKING: Former President Donald Trump has been officially sued for his role in the deadly January 6th U.S. Capitol attack.

@Kpolantz (CNN) reports Trump was notified by certified mail, receiving the notice at Mar-a-Lago.

The lawsuit was filed by Rep. Bennie Thompson, who is the Chairman of the Homeland Security Committee.





Trump's "stop the steal" fund was his most successful business venture in his life, and it looks like he's going to need to continue it just so he can afford attorneys.

And nobody wants to work for him without money up front.
By:
A_T
When: 03 Mar 21 20:57
big today tomorrow as Trump is inaugurated (according to QAnon) Grin
By:
politicspunter
When: 03 Mar 21 21:01
Laugh
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 03 Mar 21 22:00
Any betting?
By:
politicspunter
When: 03 Mar 21 22:04
Sadly, no Grin
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 03 Mar 21 22:19
Could have layed some more 33/1
By:
politicspunter
When: 03 Mar 21 22:23
There has been some mad betting swings on the 2024 Presidential election last few days, probably all to do with that GOP convention. Trumps prices went kinda crazy but they seem to have settled down again. I layed him for quite a bit on both the winner and nominee markets but will trade out when it goes back to somewhere near normal.
By:
politicspunter
When: 04 Mar 21 16:26
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-56260345

Trump back again?
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Mar 21 10:20
Trump price for Presidential election winner has been gradually drifting out on the exchange over the last few days. It's gone from 7.4 to 9.2 but is still a ludicrously short price which in no way reflect his true chances of victory. You can safely lay these type of prices all day long, his price should be at least double those currently.
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Mar 21 12:20
Now 9.4/9.6 and climbing. Someone must know something.
By:
politicspunter
When: 14 Mar 21 12:48
Not sure what has gone wrong with Smarkets robot program but it's pointless looking at their market as they are a full point shorter than everyone else!
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 14 Mar 21 12:51
Is meghan trending yet?
By:
politicspunter
When: 14 Mar 21 12:58
Still 100/1 with Ladbrokes Grin
By:
politicspunter
When: 14 Mar 21 22:37
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/meghan-markle-considering-running-president-23713022
.

Don't say you weren't told Laugh
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 15 Mar 21 13:34
How is The Chump investigation going by young Vance?
By:
A_T
When: 15 Mar 21 14:12
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9361641/Michael-Cohen-suggests-seven-meetings-Manhattan-DAs-office-arent-good-news-Trump.html
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Mar 21 09:42
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1372686747008655371/photo/1
.

Trump v Meghan Markle in 2024.
By:
politicspunter
When: 27 Mar 21 10:11
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56546480

Biden: Georgia voting restriction law is 'atrocity'
By:
A_T
When: 27 Mar 21 11:08
One of the stories for the next four years is going to be the Democrat's seeking to widen voting opportunities and the GOP looking to narrow them.
By:
politicspunter
When: 27 Mar 21 11:13
A country that claims it is a democracy, racially discriminating against it's electorate. Effectively, they are the same as South Africa in the apartheid years.
By:
edy
When: 27 Mar 21 19:06
A Republican senator bemoaning that the good old days of homegrown meth are over

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1375546495454343171
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 06 Apr 21 12:35
A long way away but any particular fancies from anyone?

Like the look of the Republican nominee market the most and got my eye on one runner in particular Tongue Out
By:
politicspunter
When: 06 Apr 21 18:43
Hi Daniel. Well, I don't give Trump a hope in hell of winning the Presidency outright, nor do any of his immediate/connected family have an earthly. Extreme right wingers like Hawley and Cruz are out too for me. Then chuck out folks like Tucker Carlson(honestly!) and Mike Pompeo. That chops a lot of deadwood from the Presidency market but don't put it past the GOP to elect one of these diddies as the republican candidate.
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 07 Apr 21 14:01
I’m curious by Pompeo. If trump doesn’t run, then he could well endorse him. If trump doesn’t run, pompeo certainly will. Think he’s in with a shot myself.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 15 Apr 21 22:10
Former Vice President Mike Pence underwent a successful surgery Wednesday to have a pacemaker implanted to help combat a slow heart rate he's recently experienced, his office said in a statement



Covid?
By:
politicspunter
When: 22 Apr 21 14:32
Well now, what do we make of this market?

Trump to run for president in 2024

https://smarkets.com/event/42185561/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-run-for-president-in-2024
.
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