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When will B/f settle presidency market?
When will B/f settle presidency market?
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If folks thought that Trump odds of around 1.33 during election night represented his true chances, they were extremely foolish. The prices for both candidates were completely wrong leading up to the election, as was said by myself and others on many, many occasions.
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Of course, Trump should have been much shorter pre election (and much bigger than 1.33 when he hit that)
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Trump should have been around 9.0 pre election, Biden 1.1, as was said many times and was proven to be correct.
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How was it 'proven to be correct' ?
Because Biden won ? Logically then, 1.01 was value for Trump in 2016. The basis for Biden being an actual 1.10 chance pre election was that the polls were correct. The polls significantly underestimated Trump so they were not correct. |
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Tobermory, this is the point. Trump did perform better than in the polls particularly in Republican held states. However, he was so far behind in the polls that despite a massive on the day turnout for him and narrowing the poll lead in many battleground states/national vote, he still lost and lost clearly. 1.1 Biden was the correct price.
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Imagine a scenario where the vote totals were announced but not which candidate had which votes.
So you knew that Pennsylvania was won by 1%, Florida was won 3.5% etc, but not who by. And then there was a 24hr period where no one knew. What would the betting be ? I expect about 1.80 Biden or bigger. Biden could only be a genuine 1.10 chance if there was a strong possibility he could win easily, with comfortable margins in the necessary states. The 'mirage' that the polls gave us was the possibility of a Biden Landslide. The market never bought it , but a few on here did. A genuine 1.10 chance, say Liverpool to win at home to Wycombe, was still a genuine 1.10 chance even if Liverpool win 4-3 with an injury time deflected goal. Because we know if they played them 10 times then Liverpool would have a few wins by 5 or 6 goals. There is no way Biden would ever beat Trump with ease, should never be near 1.10. Absolutely everything went his way and he was scraping home barely above the recount margin. |
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Biden did win easily. Trump won by 306-232 in 2016 and he declared it a landslide. Biden won by 306-232. All Biden needed to do was, first of all, hold on to all the states won by Hillary in 2016. He achieved that, very easily. Next, he had to win three states that Trump had won by a combined total in 2016 of less than 100K, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. He achieved that. He also won Georgia and Arizona into the bargain. All the polls suggested he would win the first three and had roughly a 50/50 shot in the next two. He also had decent chances in five other states which Trump held on to. Trump would have had to have simply everything dropping for him in every state and it was a bridge far too far.
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Not sure what else Tobermory is saying except he got excited
whilst folk were in bed so his false crowing fell on deaf ears perhaps. Aftetiming aftetiming is a new one to me... |
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Obviously neither Trump or Biden won landslides. How close an election is has always been determined by the % swing required to reverse the result. Ans here it was very small.
I don't know about aftertiming. I was here from midnight or just after til about 8am and don't recall stating Trump had it won. The Biden backers were not in bed, they were silently seething on the thread until it was safe to post. |
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If you split elections into constituencies and back fit the result it will
nearly always be close. Tories have 80 seat majority but swap less than 50k votes and majority is gone... |
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Like I say, aftertiming aftertiming, it's bizarre
but then most of you MAGA boys seem to be still in shock |
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The simple thing is what % swing, uniform across all states or constituencies, is required to reverse the result.
Here I think it was 1% or less without looking it up. That seems a fair measurement, not the same as allocating a bigger swing where it is needed (which I think is what would be required to make '19 GElection result different) |
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My posts on the main thread during the 2 peak Trump hours...
Trump seems rather short @1.47 on known data Biden looking good in Arizona though ? I agree it seems more of a coin flip than a 65-35 Trump. Trump hitting 1.24 was pretty crazy |
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There wasn't a uniform swing
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I mean a uniform swing away from the actual result, which changes the result, is the best measure of how close an election was. Rather than the precise number of seats or EC votes.
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Yes but that wouldn't happen
As I said above if you backfit result it will be close, even a tory 80 seat majority landslide can be picked apart if you choose which votes you want to change |
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In any case, I joined in this thread because breadnbutter asked how the Biden backers were coping during the time that Trump was 1.25 -1.45 and Politicspunter suggested to look at the thread as Biden backers were never in doubt.
I have the threads set to 40 posts per page, so, for me, page 169 is where Trump hits odds on, the price crashes further, and for the next 2 hours is mostly sub 1.50. This two hours ends on page 176. If you can find all the Biden backer posts talking about red mirage etc then you have done a better job than me as I was struggling to find many Biden backer posts at all. |
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Feel free to post all of mine.
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even a tory 80 seat majority landslide can be picked apart
if you choose which votes you want to change But that's now what anyone is doing in saying that Trump would have won with a 1% better result across the board in each state. That is just the normal way of deciding how close an election was. And always has been. So people say if Nixon was 0.5% better off in 1960 he would have beaten JFK. It's different than saying, 'well if he was 5% better off in this state, and 3% better here, and 7% there... " |
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Yes, you posted during that time Politicspunter, (unlike many) and you were not conceding, but neither were you stating confidently that Biden was going to win.
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Well, as I must have done so dozens of times already on the now 15,000 post long main thread, I don't think that should have been in doubt to anyone. Besides, I was concentrating on counties in battleground states being updated on CNN and the New York Times excellent site.
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So folk reporting and not ramping are being criticised
Ffs What do you want? Wall to wall ramping? I thought we were here to make cash? |
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Someone earlier Thanking Trump Punters for their Money ,anyone who bet trump and didnt show a profit ,should not be punting on these markets , as for Joe bettors many done their absolutes trying to get out ,Or took a hit and walked ,not that many will admit it .
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the old nanny ;-) • December 15, 2020 9:55 PM GMT
Someone earlier Thanking Trump Punters for their Money ,anyone who bet trump and didnt show a profit ,should not be punting on these markets , as for Joe bettors many done their absolutes trying to get out ,Or took a hit and walked ,not that many will admit it . Evidence for your guesses please?  |
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Some idiots were backing trump this week, last week and week before
encouraging the gullible to join them with zero chance of collecting |
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anyone who bet trump and didnt show a profit ,should not be punting on these markets
I think most Trump supporters have lost their money on this election. |
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Thread closed now, Trump is officially...
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tobermory
15 Dec 20 21:06 Joined: 01 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 51,057 | Blogger: tobermory's blog The 'red mirage' was that Trump was going to have many small leads on the night that would be reversed to huge leads for Biden when the mail vote came in. Not that Trump would be up by huge margins and that Biden was going to come back and win those states by 1% or less. I didn't follow this on the night as much as most. I was on the NY times website and they had trump up by say 250k in Pen and their analyst said that's not enough. that was about 2am. |
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It was built up to 800k at about 7am
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I think Trump was ahead in Pennsylvania by around 800K votes at one stage.
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ok, I was out by then. I backed biden at 1.5 but I obvs didn't see the "worst"
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by out I mean I was sleeping
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Trump was 3 on when I went to bed
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I had shrewdly got out Having bet him at 2 and laid at 5-4 Pmsl
 Not for me the trading game tbh |
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BetfairCS reply to someone asking what they’ll do if Trump is inaugurated:
@mikeoffoftheuk The settlement would be investigated further however for the time being we are happy with how the markets have been settled out!! What the hell sort of answer is this? You don’t use “for the time being” in relation to the settlement of a 1.7 billion market! |
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Bit of a silly answer presumably trying to placate a nut case. I mean, Trump isn’t going to be inaugurated so they can say anything they like about the possibility.
Incidentally, Trump now trading under 40s to exit in 2025 or later. |
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They’ll get away with it but you don’t want them spouting nonsense. Market was settled in accordance with market rules and no subsequent events change that. If there’s the merest hint that resettlement is possible they’ll create a stampede among nervous winners.
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If it turns out there has been widescale voter fraud
and trump is inaugurated they may end up paying out twice. But only pay trump backers after their change of rules. Of course its not going to happen but it has been something that betfair have been made to do in the past One example was mad world Xmas number one |