Politics
When will B/f settle presidency market?
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Hard to say. Not sure how many sharp traders would have gone in heavily green on Trump, given the high chance of a complete train, although no denying that would have been massively profitable if traded decently from there. Personally I went in with a huge Trump red and increased it somewhat, including a final lay at 1.4 or so, I think but then traded some red off as Biden’s position improved.
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Fair play to you, you were up front about your positions. The exception to the rule.
Anyone who was heavy on trump had no excuse for losing other than greed but that gets the best of us. Most that have been squealing the place down on here were low low odds biden money buyers. Must have been having kittens this last month  But fair play m8, good to hear you made a few Bob, nice when it works out innit. |
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At least they can get back to looosin it on the jj,s now.
Prob why bf settled |
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breadnbutter • December 15, 2020 11:41 AM GMT
biden traded at big odds on the day but so far not heard of anyone on here that backed him when trump went 1.24. Reckon plenty bailed out of their positions. If you back a 1.4 shot and it's flip flopped it's easy done, the pwopper traders would have made serious cash on the night.Prob more trump initial backers made money on the night than biden initial backers, they prob came out the worst imvho Check the main thread. |
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breadnbutter15 Dec 20 12:41
biden traded at big odds on the day but so far not heard of anyone on here that backed him when trump went 1.24 2020-11-04 03:16 Politics / USA - Presidential Election 2020/ Next President / Joe Biden Back 4.00 100.00 Won 300.00  |
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I think someone got 5.2 in running on the night on the main thread (it wasn't me).
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The night of the election was great fun. Trump never won a single democrat held state but because he was winning states that he already held and they were counting in person on the day votes first, his price shortened dramatically which was completely bonkers.
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Trump supporters you can still back him on here to be president untill 2025 or later at 60
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Trump supporters should be thankful that even though their guy lost, they have had multiple occasions to profit from this market with all the fluctuations and crazy trading that has occurred. If they lost, they only have themselves to blame.
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I had one bet after about 31st October, which was a grand on Biden at 1.06 while Betfair was stalling on paying out the inevitable.
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From Betfair (alerted to me, no less) -
We have now settled the Next President Exchange market after confirmation from the Electoral College... Dec 15, Update The Electoral College formally cast its votes on December 14 and this enabled us to settle the remaining Betfair Exchange markets on the US election. The Next President market rules stipulated that we would settle the market on the candidate that had the most projected Electoral College votes. Following the Electoral College votes being cast, that candidate is clearly Joe Biden. Thanks for your patience. It essentially admits that they don’t know what projection means but it’s nice that they made the effort, I suppose. |
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While I don’t at all agree, I can live with the way they (mis)handled the main market. I can even sort of see how they might justify waiting for the electoral college votes for the state markets, although this is even more tenuous. How they can justify not having settled popular vote numbers, percentages etc. where the market rules specified totals as per CNN, I just have no idea though. And that’s cost me a fair bit of cash, given that if they’d liberated those markets once the totals were clear (the vote numbers markets they could have settled once Biden went past 75m and Trump 70m, in fact), I could have reinvested it, although to be fair, in markets that they also ought to have settled, just a bit less obviously so.
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I can understand their hesitation, but they backed themselves
into a hole. They are out of it now. But rules are rules in these markets and one day they will end up getting stung if they don't stick to em. Again! |
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And of course Trump did not need to win a single state from the Democrats and I can't recall anyone predicting he would.
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You might be right on that Tobes but weighing up the situation in the darkest hours does not allow time to post comments. Deeds not words time. I think PP did say several times the roll up votes had been counted first and then the postal votes would follow over the days. TBF it did not look good on the face of it particularly when 4 years ago it was hard to envisage a pussay grabbing, philandering, criminal, racist not to mention stupid man without political experience being voted into office as the most powerful man in the World!
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I think we all knew that the late counted postal votes would favour Biden, but the Trump leads in those states were much bigger than had been anticipated.
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There was plenty of info about red mirage
It did look like trump might be just about Fav at one point But the odds never made trump the value A few right wingers got a bit carried away which was a shame to have missed |
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I must admit Tobe I backed Biden in Wisconsin as I thought the postal votes would see him through, but I did hold back on PA when I saw he was over 800k+ behind. I wasn't sure even though Biden would be heavily favoured in the postal votes it would be enough.
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/vote-counting-today-polls-election.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/ I posted these on the main thread. |
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To be fair the rules stated projected winner, anything that happens after that is not part of the rules
Its why I haven't moaned about losing money, yes I kinda misunderstood the rule slightly, it did state electoral college projection but felt a div after ranting about it a couple of weeks ago and didn't alter my stance at the time But rules are rules and Biden won on those rules |
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How did Trump backers humiliate themselves. Surely more embarrassing to be shouting about Biden winning easily, vanish from the thread when it isn't looking good, then come back when he's won saying I told you so. It reminded me of the old days of the football forum, there would be a bunch of guys claiming to be pro punters whose only idea of a bet was backing Real/Barca @1.17 or so. If they were playing they'd be all over page 1 of the thread, but then Barca go 0-2 down and they vanish, 1-2, still no sign , 2-2, still no posts, then, 3-2 on 89th minute, and all these shrewdies from page 1 suddenly post 'BOOM!' etc in unison. It's not a good look.
I know Politicspunter and Fatslogger were here. Fatslogger posted a further Trump lay. But neither of them were expressing confidence about Biden winning at that time. And of course most of them were nowhere to be seen, there had been plenty of them a couple of hours earlier. I don't recall the phrase 'red mirage' being posted here during that time. Anyway, it's not a matter of debate, as Politicspunter says, you can go back to the thread for the relevant time. Anyone looking for 'Joe has got this' type posts during the 90 minurtes or so that Trump was trading 1.25-1.45 is going to be disappointed. |
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Whisperingdeath • December 15, 2020 6:26 PM GMT
You might be right on that Tobes but weighing up the situation in the darkest hours does not allow time to post comments. Deeds not words time. I think PP did say several times the roll up votes had been counted first and then the postal votes would follow over the days. TBF it did not look good on the face of it particularly when 4 years ago it was hard to envisage a pussay grabbing, philandering, criminal, racist not to mention stupid man without political experience being voted into office as the most powerful man in the World! |
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If Trumpers wanted to fill the forum thread on election night with their drivel because Trump appeared to be ahead but wasn't really, that was up to them. I had made the position clear on a number of occasions, both before election night and on the night itself.
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I also recall Daniel posting quite a few times.
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Big Don was cruising though, it was becoming a landslide and the boom the lights went out, came back to find Undertaker standing over the ballot counting
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Yes, PP, we know that you said pre election that the late postal vote would count in favour of Biden. I said it myself pre election. We all knew this. That is not the same as having said the late postal vote would win it for Biden
Whatever the position at 4am our time in Penn,Wisconsin etc , we knew Biden was going to improve. The expectation however was that the Trump on the day leads would be much smaller. |
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Big Don wasn't cruising and it was never going to be a landslide (for him). He never won a single democrat held state but he did lose five he held previously.
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The best place to follow what was happening on election night was with John King on CNN. His knowledge of counties within states was truly awesome.
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Why would any serious punter be posting on the Betfair forum at that time with a million things going on? Serious punters were busy looking for data to try and work out what was going on before the rest of the market.
CNN were constantly telling the viewers to expect a red mirage many weeks before election day. The data analysts I was following were saying Biden was outperforming Hillary in the counties they were studying. Those who were fooled and piled into Trump at short prices only have themselves to blame for not being better informed. |
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Politicspunter,
The idea that everything was going to plan for Biden when Trump was 1.33 was not something anyone was stating on here. We can go back and check but I just don't really think there were any posts like that. Your own posts at that time, from what I recall, were along the lines of 'let's see, it's still early, Biden has the most promising states to come'. You were certainly not waving the white flag, or doing a vanishing act, but if it was obvious that Biden was going to win at the time (as you claim it was now) surely you would have been much more bullish in your posts at that time ? The idea that Trump was in trouble because he was not winning any Democrat held states that Hilary won, I am baffled at the relevance of that. The entire election was about how many Trump '16 states Biden could gain. |
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I think Jack sums it up pretty well in his post above yours.
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Tobermory restating he sings when he's winning
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The 'red mirage' was that Trump was going to have many small leads on the night that would be reversed to huge leads for Biden when the mail vote came in.
Not that Trump would be up by huge margins and that Biden was going to come back and win those states by 1% or less. |