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When will B/f settle presidency market?
When will B/f settle presidency market?
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Replies: 2,073
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Right, Charlie.
If Trump had a breakthrough, you could probably still get in at 500-1 or something, which wouldn't be the worst odds in the world. |
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Result is in.
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The great boon of Trump conceding in ten minutes, if that's what he's doing, is that my aggravation will be gone.
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It's a covid talk isn't it? no conceding today - if ever
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Yeah, it says Warp Speed.
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It's Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Those are the states. If the Supreme Court is to ride to the rescue. |
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So either certify one of them or he concedes and it's over then. Doesn't look like he's contesting Nevada and has admitted he's lost Arizona.
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I am unsure whether certifying means a result is then impervious to litigation that results in a Supreme Court order of material import.
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I think they're just reading this thread at Betfair Towers with some popcorn and will settle the market when the amusement on this thread begins to wear off.
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I don't think it does, at least on the basis that I was reading some discussion that the whole safe harbour premise could be undermined if you get two sets of certifications in before that time.
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But hasn't the argument been that "projected results" were based on certification? So if he's conceded everything else and one of the others is certified, he's at 270.
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Sky's ticker says "Biden Wins - Trump giving news conference"
It's so misleading. The bloke isn't conceding. He's talking about covid. |
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Maybe he'll slip it in at the end hoping people won't notice
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There is no official repository for how these terms are defined.
Projected results, if there is a concession, could mean simply CNN and Fox and NBC doing the can-can in unison in tandem with a concession. Without a concession, the issue is when we get certainty. Those projected, predicted, prophesied votes, are actually physically made, given, and received on 14 December. Betfair is going to wait until a moment is reached that it can be 100% confident, not puntishly, but solidly and legally, that what happens on 6 January is in the bag. If results are certified in 270+ worth of states, the question is, do those certifications therefore assure what will happen on 6 January, namely 270+ votes being counted and recognised as belonging to Candidate X so Candidate X is appointed President? I don't know. In practice, if the Supreme Court made an order of material import after a state certified, and the result of that order led to a change in numbers and a second certification, then that situation wouldn't guarantee what happens on 14 December, or what happens validly on 14 December, when the projected, predicted, prophesied, purported, putative votes are actually made and given and received. |
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ha ha
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https://youtu.be/bHkbUoPKdKQ
The show is only starting. |
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Run to some randoms leftie's page on twitter to find your debunking cope.
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Trump knows he's not going to be President on 21 January.
He knows that if he succeeds in getting this **** flipped up to the Congress on 6 January, he has no avenue. It's in black and white in the Twelfth Amendment. Pelosi controls the house in which his vote would take place, and would block it. He knows that if he's fighting on, at this point, it's not to be inaugurated himself on 20 January, but to get Pence inaugurated. I'm not going to pretend to be more confident than I am about the legal status and timings of certifications, but I'm not going to pretend to be less confident than I am that Trump has avenue through on 6 January and Pence does. |
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that Trump has NO avenue.
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Pence being elected means Trump won't be able to run in 2024. I think you're slightly deluded if you think Trump is going to sacrifice himself in order to help Mike Pence.
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It's kind of annoying, really. I saw a comment a little further down which was clearly someone implying that I was ramping for Pence.
I'm not making any secret of the fact that I think Pence at 1000 is the product of people not understanding the process. I'm not making any secret of the fact that I think Pence should have Trump's odds. If you think Trump has a 15-1 chance, then those odds should be Pence's, not Trump's. If you think Trump has a 10-1 chance or a 30-1 chance, then those odds should be Pence's, not Trump's. And it's not because I'm a baseless ramper but because Betfair's rules refer to choosing the President via the Twelfth, and if it gets to the Twelfth, Biden is done because he doesn't have the majority, Trump is done because he has the majority but he doesn't have control of the house where the vote takes place, and Pence is the only one who has the majority and the house. It's not rocket science. It's basic logic. Pence is the only one out of the four of Biden, Trump, him and Harris who can and would make it through the Twelfth Amendment process to the Oval Office. In another universe, you may not be rushing out to put your tenner on Pence, but you might at least bother to do a little reading to see whether what I've typed in this post stacks up. And it does. The one thing I was unsure of was whether Pence could compel a quorum, but it seems that he does have that power. |
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If you actually listened to it before being triggered and responding you might get yourself ready for whats coming.
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Imagine thinking they were going to throw out ballots because they were cast using a system that has been in place since the American Civil War.
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This is fascinating.
Does anyone know, has Pence shared the podium with Trump before in these covid conferences? If not, this seems like the beginning of a quasi-anointment process. |
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He's not going to be anointed anything if the cavalry in the shape of the Supreme Court doesn't start tooting its bugle.
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Sergeant Cecil,
I think what we just witnessed on tv in these last few moments was Trump helping Pence get elected President with the help of the Supreme Court. |
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That was March.
I don't know. As far as I know, they appear on tv every week together to chat about covid. Or maybe they don't. I've seen a few Trump covid speeches. I don't remember seeing Pence before. So while it's happened, maybe it's not regular. Forgive me for Mike Pence being dragged out into the Rose Garden to talk about the cavalry arriving and my thoughts briefly turning to Amy Coney Barrett in military uniform. |
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For God's sake.
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Pence has always been on stage with him throughout covid.
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A sure sign of a profitable gambler is to posit a theory, have it emphatically debunked and then stick to it rigidly anyway despite the evidence to the contrary...
FGS |
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Fair enough. I don't keep a covid diary of their appearances.
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Like Betfair paying out immediately on CNN's Projected Majority?
I'm with you, brother. |
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Someone should notify the American people as a matter of urgency that the wording of the Twelfth Amendment is a debunked theory.
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BREAKING: Pennsylvania Court REJECTS Trump lawsuit challenging 4,466 ballots.
Trump and allies are now 1-19 in court. 1/19! |
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Here's some fake news for you, Sergeant Cecil:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution You can read, can't you (Andy Dusfresne to Boggs) ? I am three times aggravated, just for a laugh? |
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What are you on about?
I was talking about your theory that Pence speaking was the, and I quote, "beginning of a quasi-anointment process". Then having been told it was not a unique event, you continued with: "I think what we just witnessed on tv in these last few moments was Trump helping Pence get elected President with the help of the Supreme Court." Until you finally acknowledged that this was, indeed, a regular occurance. |