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They’ve already applied the rules that lead to around 1-2% of ballots being struck out though. If the GOP wanted to challenge these rules they should have done so already and in fact, did try various cases in various states. To get anywhere now, they’d have to demonstrate that appropriate and agreed procedures hadn’t been followed to the extent that 10k or so ballots can be thrown out. That both seems improbable a priori and extra hard to get litigated from here, having so far not even tried to run a case along those lines, as far as I can see.
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I do think it's difficult to argue against a massive odds tip because the arguments appear so binary. Versions of 'it won't happen', which is a bit unfair when we are trying to price something for which there's no data to look into and it's accepted (presumably) by the tipper that it's a value loser more than a particularly plausible outcome.
nobody can say these aren't strange times; nobody can say the GOP is playing by the rules; therefore the shenanigans could throw out weird outcomes (in my view). Price up future weirdness? nobody can... |
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bigpoppapump, Only two candidates can win under Betfair rules. Trump and Biden.
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Now, maybe.
When he tipped it, pre-election, my understanding was that Harris could have become the candidate of the Dems before Biden was projected as a winner. |
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Well, I have my 999-1 bet which is worth a flutter through the teacups of China.
Whether or not you realise it, the four of you are 999-1 bet aficionados just like me. Some 999-1 bets end up upside down, but one in every thousand or two thousand aeons - if you're laying, that is - unfathomable bad luck is headed your way. I hope the four of you lay Pence aggressively and continually at these prices, to the limit of your net worths and beyond. |
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No, she couldn't win as votes had already been cast by mail.
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Plenty 1000 shots that have
a chance as they are runners. You can always go back to betfair for a refund of course On the grounds that if you strike a bet it should have a chance of winning however remote. |
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those votes - already cast - would have reverted to her, if she became the Dem's candidate. The election wouldn't have been voided.
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I hope the four of you lay Pence aggressively and continually at these prices, to the limit of your net worths and beyond.
FXDUD hasn't heard about Kelly staking |
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The election wouldn't have been voided but she wasn't on the ballot, Biden was and mail-in, early votes had already taken place.
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Maybe he got into financial difficulties at the hotshot lawfirm, or maybe he was spending more than five minutes in the pub at lunchtime.
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The election wouldn't have been voided but she wasn't on the ballot, Biden was and mail-in, early votes had already taken place.
that was the point of the prop. Biden gone; Trump - only candidate standing is under 270. Therefore the 12th kicks in. And a Dem congress puts her in. |
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I'm going to give you a cast-iron guarantee of more than five minutes.
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FXDUX case for Harris was...
1/ It had to be a tie 269-269 (100/1 shot) 2/ Biden ad to become so ill he was on a ventilator or passed away post election but before January 6th (Let's say 20/1 shot) 3/ Harris had to get the nomination via the twelfth amendment route rather than Trump (call that evens) 4/ Multiplying those odds together made Kamala Harris around 4000/1 |
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that was the point of the prop. Biden gone; Trump - only candidate standing is under 270. Therefore the 12th kicks in. And a Dem congress puts her in.
Rate reply: No, it's projected votes, that has already happened. |
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I’ve got quite a decent green on Pence, as it happens. I could lay it for forty quid without going bigger red on Pence than I now have on Trump but don’t feel especially strongly about it either way at 1000s. My estimation is that he’s at best very close to drawing dead because the chance of throwing any of the electoral college votes up in the air is extremely low, let alone three states’ worth of them. Even that’s assuming a) that Betfair somewhat ignored their projected EC votes rule and b) that Pence would be the guy who got it.
To be fair, I’ve talked myself into laying at least some of my Pence green off at 900s. |
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I wonder if you ever post anything, politicspunter, that isn't incorrect and idiotic.
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Fatslogger, if I do one good thing right in this thread, it will be to recommend that you don't listen to the four idiots where the "projected majority" point is concerned.
The only kind of projected majority Betfair has any intention of settling on is a projected majority that would preclude the possibility of the two votes under Twelfth being required on 6th January. The four idiots are incapable of reading a set of rules with hav an iota of intelligence. |
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https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31673373/biden-covid-harris-the-twelfth-amendment-and-6-january-2021#flvWelcomeHeader
And here is FXDUX Kamala Harris thread. The title gives the whole plot away. |
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The fact that after posting some detailed, accurate, reasonable thoughts on what will happen if Betfair's rules' stated Twelfth comes into play,
that all these four idiots do is attack and abuse me, tells you all you need to know about their capacities . It is truly pathetic that after being totally and utterly wrong about Betfair settling immediately, they are doubling down and not changing their incorrect rubbish one bit. |
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Can you imagine the thousands of folk who have backed Biden for hundreds of millions
to have most projected ec votes And what might happen to betfair... |
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Particularly when BF settled 43 states markets without waiting for certified results.
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https://www.revolver.news/2020/11/republican-state-legislatures-must-restore-will-of-the-people/
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that all these four idiots do is attack and abuse me
But I do know exactly who politicspunter, dave1357 and sergent cecil are. The kind of people that in ordinary life you wouldn't waste five seconds on in the pub. This thread consists of a few people posting trying to assess things sensibly, and a handful of idiots making blithe certain assertions about rules they do not understand The two of you would benefit from lobotomies if you had any brain cells to excise. As soon as someone posts on issues like this with absolutist statements about things they cannot possibly be absolutist about with any credibility, you know that it's safe to peg them as a worthless poster with worthless opinions. And that is just today |
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You can make your pleas for mercy on the projected majority point all you like, dave1357, but in the end 'tis but a fodder means to an end.
I promise you this: Bose ;-) |
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I've def abused him about his claim to have resigned from a top shot lawyers job
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Maybe in 2024,if trump stands as an indy,
and wins a few projected ec votes Preventing a majority being reached, we might see the 12th kick in. It's there for a reason.. |
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yeah that is exactly the reason plus a tie
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On the same idiotic incorrect grounds that they said Betfair would settle immediately, they've been both disagreeing with and abusing me.
It took a while for me to begin responding in kind. |
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rofl you instantly started abusing anyone who disagreed with you and claiming that you were a hotshot lawyer
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Dave, I expect you wouldn't believe me if I said ten hours.
But I have to be honest here, and make full disclosure, as a matter of good faith. I promise you, ten hours. |
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Do my posts sound like I was a brickie or a lawyer?
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Ok, it's a fair cop.
Dave, you got me. Dab hand with a brick, it's all I am. :-) |
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You weren't an american constitutional lawyer
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As far as that is concerned you are simply another punter
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Not that your screeds about the 12th are necessarily inaccurate, just irrelevant to THIS betting market.
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Yep, completely irrelevant.
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You don't have to be an American constitutional lawyer to read Betfair's rules with basic competence.
And you don't have to be an American constitutional lawyer to read the bare few lines that are the Twelfth Amendment and the Twentieth Amendment and interpret their plain meaning with basis competence. |