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When will B/f settle presidency market?
When will B/f settle presidency market?
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Cahely, the Trafalgar pollster, said before the election he thought Trump would win Pennsylvania after signature-matching.
They've had many months to prepare for this, and it's really not a new or shocking idea that they would apply to the Supreme Court for signature-matching. It was entirely foreseeable. In Pennsylvania there are 2.5m mail-ballots to review. In Georgia, 1.25m. That's an awful lot of ballots from which to find a tiny percentage to strike out on multiple grounds. It doesn't require a conspiracy, just normalcy. It's quite normal in elections for 1-2% of ballots to be struck out. In some elections, it's more. In the 2018 elections, Georgia and Pennsylvania were striking out ballots at a rate of 4.4% and 6.9% (I can't remember which was which). The recent New York primary fiasco had a strike-out rate above 20%. The strike-out rate in Georgia, at present, is very low. I can't recall exactly what it is, but it's under 1% I think. 0.something. They waved all sorts of stuff through. I take your point that Biden isn't AOC. But he's 78 and doesn't get through a speech without making a major ricket. I don't think the Republican Senators milling around in Congress on the morning of 6 January mortified at how close the live incoming unconfirmed voting results of Warnock/Loeffler and Perdue/Ossoff are going to be, will be feeling particularly soothed. They are going to be faced with the prospect of doing something that will lead to Trump being cast out of the White House within an hour or two, in favour of Pence. It may not be a banquet, but it's not a **** sandwich either. |
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Trump is probably going to have to ask the Supreme Court to step in and order what he needs.
Whether he gets it is a different question. this isn't a thing. SC hears cases passed upwards by lower courts. It doesn't/cannot "step in" to State run elections because one side or other doesn't like the outcome. |
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You're just nitpicking semantics. Ok, Trump is going to have to hope that a lower court decision passed upwards to the Supreme court goes in his favour.
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no, I'm really not nitpicking (other than the obvious, this is the law and of course it's all in the detail - so I accept it's a detailed point). There appears to be a widespread misapprehension that Trump ultimately 'owns' the SC and they'll rule his way. All the news however, is of his lawyers getting laughed out of Federal courts because the 'dog ate their homework' (they have nothing).
Widespread election fraud didn't happen - there's therefore nothing going to the SC |
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your earlier posts about double Electors, however, that sounds compelling stuff (for SC rulings). not that I'm a constitutional lawyer but you've convinced me you know what you're talking about.
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It's not the double Electors thing that I should be presumed to be talking confidently about. That's a question of how far the Supreme Court is going to go to get involved. You can bet that Coney Barrett, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Alito, Thomas and Roberts will be just as aware as I am of what the Twelfth Amendment means, in terms of meaning that Trump will be gone and Pence will be in.
I'm not saying anything with confidence about double Electors or refused certification. There are different ways things can develop from here, or, indeed, not develop. The only thing I'm saying with confidence, misplaced or otherwise, accurate or otherwise - and my current understanding is that it is accurate - is that if it does go to the Twelfth, then Pelosi will stop Trump, she won't be able to stop Pence, and that means Pence in the White House. |
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so you're saying Pence is a better bet than 999/1?
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Zero chance of this getting to the Supreme Court. Have you been paying attention to anything that has gone through the courts this week?
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FWIW I'm happy to fling a tenner at a 1000.0 shot on the basis that this guy has so far been correct (on his Kamala tip) that there'd be no swift resolution and Biden therefore had time to get sick.
 if he's wrong, it's not like he's tipping up odds on nonsense is it? |
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As soon as someone posts on issues like this with absolutist statements about things they cannot possibly be absolutist about with any credibility, you know that it's safe to peg them as a worthless poster with worthless opinions.
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That wasn't directed at you, bigpoppapump.
I'm not suggesting that anyone break the bank putting money on Pence, but I am saying that anyone flinging lays on Pence is at greater risk of bankrupting themselves than they might think. |
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bigpoppapump • November 13, 2020 1:22 PM GMT
FWIW I'm happy to fling a tenner at a 1000.0 shot on the basis that this guy has so far been correct (on his Kamala tip) that there'd be no swift resolution and Biden therefore had time to get sick. He has also tipped Kamala Harris. |
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I am saying that Pence at 999-1 is epic, appalling, ignorant mispricing.
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As bigpoppapump said, I tipped Harris on the basis that the market would not immediately be settled, when you were saying it would be immediately settled.
Crawl back under your rock, politicspunter, if the other insects can tolerate the company. |
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He has also tipped Kamala Harris.
I know. it was a well reasoned bet, imco |
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There was no possible chance whatsoever that Harris can win under the Betfair rules.
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Imagine thinking Pence could win a market settled on projected Electoral College votes...
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Correct PP, same for Pence.
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It is true to say, politicspunter, that if the Republicans refuse to agree 270 for Biden on 6 January, an unfathomable spirit of uncontained vengeance is headed from the direction of the blue contingent.
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Yep, and Pelosi for that matter, another FXDUX 1000.0 tip.
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The two of you would benefit from lobotomies if you had any brain cells to excise.
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There was no possible chance whatsoever that Harris can win under the Betfair rules.
As I understood the prop: deadlock at 269 and biden sick before the House put him over the line via the 12th? Harris became the candidate of the ultimate winning side... |
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yep FXDUD's entire argument depends on his own interpretation of the phrase "projected electoral college votes" rather than the obvious interpretation that it is linked to the popular vote in each state (backed up by subsequent BF statements that they are waiting for recounts and legal issues to be settled before settling state and presidential markets).
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Anybody might think he had big useless greens
On Harris pence and Pelosi he was hoping to dump. So odd no posts in run up to election following all his 2012 stuff and obama birth certificate stuff And there's always another new poster praising him Quite remarkable really |
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It wouldn't matter if Biden passed away, Betfair pay out on projected votes on the election market which actually became live as the first ballots were cast weeks before election day. There were two possible winners. Trump and Biden.
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It is becoming increasingly clear that Fxdux is also a right-wing conspiracy nut and anything he says must be framed within that context.
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At the time, before the election, the Democrats were favoured to win the Senate.
So, Biden gone/Harris installed before the projected/received majority was rendered certain. Or, Harris selected via the Twelfth. Because of the election result, Harris will not be selected via the Twelfth. There is no way for her there. The way is for Pence. |
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^that is irrelevant on the betfair market
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Sergeant Cecil, if you want to count two as three, it's your prerogative.
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I just assumed FXDUX was a new account for Jed Davison?
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This thread consists of a few people posting trying to assess things sensibly, and a handful of idiots making blithe certain assertions about rules they do not understand.
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Is Jed banned?
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I don't remember jed being into specials
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dunno - I haven't seen posts from him for ages, but then I go months without checking this board. I lack commitment
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No idea who Jed Davison is.
But I do know exactly who politicspunter, dave1357 and sergent cecil are. The kind of people that in ordinary life you wouldn't waste five seconds on in the pub. |
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No idea who Jed Davison is.
But I do know exactly who politicspunter, dave1357 and sergeant cecil are. The kind of people that in ordinary life you wouldn't waste five seconds on in the pub. |
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He did have somebody called
timbucktooth, (with a k) bigging him up back in the day Lol |
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FXDUD becomes sociopathic when challenged, not hard to see why he had to resign from his hotshot lawyer's job.
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Lol, it's not Tim is it ?
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