Politics
2.6 Trump to be next president of the US.
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https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1293980540333436929?s=19
Not being Trump accounting for a lot of the Biden vote here |
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another deluded biden fanboy whos going to lose his money
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I did like the irony of replying to someone who doesn't much like Biden, posting evidence that it's not really about Biden, being described as a Biden fanboy though. Newsflash, Biden really doesn't have many fanboys.
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If you dont think Trump is the greatest POTUS ever and will win easily despite the FAKE POLLS, you are a Trump fanboy.
Thats how it works on here. Likewise all the moderates and centrists who supported remain or dislike Boris or Trump are all far left |
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The simple fact is that the Trump vote is very strong and enthusiastic but there is not enough of them. He needs to somehow persuade Biden supporters who hate Trump to somehow change their vote. Right now Trump is only appealing to his narrow white solid, mostly male vote, which isn't going to be enough to win.
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Any thoughts on if the Kanye sort of entry means anything?
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1294008862878707712?s=19 These numbers aren't surprising even though seemingly the conventional wisdom was Kanye is there as a spoiler for Biden - presumably on the basis he is black. Because otherwise his few statements made suggest he was appealing to a socially conservative base, one that was shrinking in the Dem voter pool I'd have thought. |
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Surely trump nails the 28% of usa citizens that are anti covid vaccine.
He really doesn't have to find many more if he can get that wedge out Problem seems to be many of them are boycotting the election, |
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There is polling on people who worried about COVID and those that aren't.
Its a landslide in both directions as you'd expect. The much smaller base of not worried also probably contains far fewer who didn't vote Trump last time compared to the bigger worried group with regards to 2016 Trump voters |
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This is an idea of how tough Trumps task is. Minnesota is possibly his main target state which obviously if he were to win it makes Bidens job much harder. Minnesota approval ratings for Trump...
Approve 39% Disapprove 58% Trump is behind with every age bracket, gender and race group. |
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Was Trump a better performer with 50-65 previously than 65+ or has that become a new development this time round? (In general)
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The anti maskers are already in his basket of deplorables. The country is polarised. The swing states will decide it as usual.... or perhaps the Courts...or the US Postal Service
 There is plenty of time to go badly wrong for Chump and the Republicans but in no way is it over. Can't see The Army coming out in tanks on the streets for him!.....yet! |
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For 2016 65 years and older it was 53-45 Trump. Current polling has it 49-49.
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I like the 538 approach of recognising that there's a long way to go, where some of the uncertainties are and its attempt to quantify them but I keep returning to a point they also make about how entrenched the polarisation is and how stable Trump's (dis)approval ratings have been. Sure, he could squeak it with a recovering economy, a swing his way, some voter suppression and his electoral college advantage even losing the popular vote (again) but that feels a fair way out on the probability spectrum.
Agree with this, as it's pretty much hit the nail on the head. Another way of putting it is - if the stars align he could win this election. The 538 approach will firm up Biden's chances over time, but I like how they factor in uncertainty with the 80 days to go. |
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Next president: Male, and Biden Popular vote winner both free money.
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Is Cohen trying to get himself back in prison or is he going to turn States Evidence?
Chump needs to win in November, December or January to stay out of jail imho. NY prosecutors know they have to wait! |
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This notion that a sitting president cannot be charged with a crime is not actually law. It's just a tradition followed by the DOJ and they have no authority over state law anyway. If Trump is re-elected and statute of limitation issues become a concern, NY State may decide to proceed with a criminal prosecution if they have the evidence, in my uninformed view.
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Trump seems to realise he's going to lose the election himself, that's why his whole game plan has moved on to stifling the postal vote and crying foul over it after the election.
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Doesn’t even tie your cash up and make you anxious about Biden’s health for long, as the convention closes on the 20th.
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The roll call is scheduled for Tuesday so it should be settled after that.
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If anyone is interested in stonewall short odds winners, there are multiple state betting markets available on the exchange where there is only one possible winner.
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That isn't my cup of tea but I think that with the election being less than three months away, every 1.01 winner equates to just over 4% tax free, every 1.02 winner equates to 8% etc. There are some at higher prices.
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Compared to an annual tax free rate on any savings account I suppose it's worth a look.
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Those are higher risk than the ridiculous Biden nominee position I topped up on yesterday as more time for them to be affected by black swan events but it is Dem v Rep so only real risk is if either candidate can’t fight the GE and presumably then the VP nominee can step in anyway so for example, the Dems can’t really fail to win California at 1.02 / 1.03. Would need to check the rules though.
I do quite a lot of short odds political betting on near certainties but months out it does tie cash up for an irritatingly long time. Mind you, I’ll have the £55k or so I’ve got tied up in nominee markets available again soon. |
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Hi fats, or should I say PP?
 Here is a list of what I consider to be certain wins, most certain first... Republican- Wyoming, West Virginia,Idaho, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alabama. Democrat- Vermont, Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, Washington, Rhode Island, Delaware, Illinois. |
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2.44 now, but still value I think.
A poll at the weekend gives Biden the usual 8 point lead, but, asked if they 'strongly support' him only 46% of his intended voters said yes (66% for Trump support). I'd assumed Biden's numbers were soft because he is such a vapid candidate in ideological terms, but that is worse than I expected. When your support is so shallow the size of the lead is less significant, as it can evaporate very abruptly. No doubt there are people who 'strongly support' voting Trump out, and will vote for Biden, but there are going to be 10% of voters who are not so partisan and they will be in play for Trump to close the gap. |
