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2.6 Trump to be next president of the US.

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By:

politicspunter When: 12 Aug 20 17:08

And it isn't much use presenting him with opinion polls, he doesn't understand them either. Like Trump, he says they are fake if they don't fit his agenda.

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 19:40

Aug 12, 2020 -- 1:11PM, politicspunter wrote:

Hmm, the dates are now finalised.

And a lot of speculation that Biden won't show up.

By:

Fatslogger When: 12 Aug 20 19:49

Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:40PM, tobermory wrote:

Aug 12, 2020 -- 1:11PM, politicspunter wrote:Hmm, the dates are now finalised.And a lot of speculation that Biden won't show up.

There's always speculation. That's how you get odds of 1.1 or more on things that are close to nailed on barring death, like Biden being the Dem nominee from late March to April.

By:

politicspunter When: 12 Aug 20 19:52

Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:49PM, Fatslogger wrote:

Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:40PM, tobermory wrote:Aug 12, 2020 -- 1:11PM, politicspunter wrote:Hmm, the dates are now finalised.And a lot of speculation that Biden won't show up.There's always speculation. That's how you get odds of 1.1 or more on things that are close to nailed on barring death, like Biden being the Dem nominee from late March to April.

The way some folks talk on here I am not sure they realise you have collected

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 19:57

I was talking about the debates. Biden being urged not to go by supportive media and doesn't appear to be ruling out that option. Could be presented as due to Covid, but we know why he'd rather give it a miss.

By:

politicspunter When: 12 Aug 20 19:58

You know nothing.

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 20:00

I don't believe Trump has similar mental failings as Biden. Trump contradicts things he has said earlier and does stream of consciousness type stuff because is a fundamentally dishonest person that is always trying to blag people and prioritizing the immediate issue

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 20:02

Biden was dodging the debates in the primaries.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 12 Aug 20 20:05

There was some talk of hillary feeling she had let herself down
in the debate where trump was stalking her around the platform.

She wished she had said something.

Trump did enough to get his message over without ever really getting into a debate.

Folk thought hillary won but she failed to get get target audience to vote.

Obviously she had whole campaign to do that,.. But failed.

If she won debates twas hollow victory.

By:

Fatslogger When: 12 Aug 20 20:05

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:02PM, tobermory wrote:

Biden was dodging the debates in the primaries.

Was he? He did the debates against the other Dem candidates, didn't he?

I'd be very surprised if he bails on the debates with Trump. While I think there's an argument that he doesn't need to take the risk of them going badly given how far ahead he is, the optics would be terrible, so ducking is a bigger risk. If he were going to duck, he'd have taken a different line up to now, I think, although I admit I've not been following the pre debate narrative very closely.

By:

politicspunter When: 12 Aug 20 20:05

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:02PM, tobermory wrote:

Biden was dodging the debates in the primaries.

Which primary debate did he dodge?

By:

Fatslogger When: 12 Aug 20 20:08

Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:52PM, politicspunter wrote:

Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:49PM, Fatslogger wrote:Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:40PM, tobermory wrote:Aug 12, 2020 -- 1:11PM, politicspunter wrote:Hmm, the dates are now finalised.And a lot of speculation that Biden won't show up.There's always speculation. That's how you get odds of 1.1 or more on things that are close to nailed on barring death, like Biden being the Dem nominee from late March to April.The way some folks talk on here I am not sure they realise you have collected

I haven't yet! It won't settle until the convention. You can still bet on him at 1.02 for £337 015, as of now. It's quite a bit of money to speculate on him not dying and no complete black swan event preventing him running but it's still pretty astonishing value. The convention is only a frigging week away!

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 20:08

He ducked one with Bernie

By:

Fatslogger When: 12 Aug 20 20:10

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:08PM, tobermory wrote:

He ducked one with Bernie

It's a fair point but he'd already won by then! He did the others when the race was still live. Also you said "debates" so I'm awarding you a C.

By:

Fatslogger When: 12 Aug 20 20:14

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:05PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

There was some talk of hillary feeling she had let herself downin the debate where trump was stalking her around the platform. She wished she had said something. Trump did enough to get his message over without ever really getting into a debate. Folk thought hillary won but she failed to get get target audience to vote. Obviously she had whole campaign to do that,.. But failed. If she won debates twas hollow victory.

I think you could make the case that Trump outperformed expectations against such an experienced debater; that he landed some blows and that Clinton's victories were ultimately futile but that's not the same as her not winning.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 12 Aug 20 20:15

Yep

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 20:19

I thought Biden missed a few in 2019 too, though perhaps its normal for a leading candidate to skip the early ones with no hopers.

I do recall there being a wide consensus in the media that Hilary won the debates. But the media is mostly left centre.

Trump supporters believed he won so probably it all made no difference.

By:

Fatslogger When: 12 Aug 20 20:22

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:19PM, tobermory wrote:

I thought Biden missed a few in 2019 too, though perhaps its normal for a leading candidate to skip the early ones with no hopers.I do recall there being a wide consensus in the media that Hilary won the debates. But the media is mostly left centre.Trump supporters believed he won so probably it all made no difference.

There were so many Dem candidates early on that they split the debates up into first and second tiers and still had two separate top tier debates, I think. I don't recall Biden skipping any.

By:

Fatslogger When: 12 Aug 20 20:24

On Trump Clinton debates, my take is that she gave him a bloody nose and significantly improved her position by doing so, certainly in two of the three debates. I'm pretty sure polling and Betfair odds reflected that too. It's hardly incompatible with her losing though, in the same way that you can win a few battles but still lose a war

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 12 Aug 20 20:40

Biden had a one on one debate with Bernie and I would suggest surprised most of his critics who like to believe that he is senile.

By:

stewarty b When: 12 Aug 20 20:51

I thought this post I made was end of thread!

stewarty b
Date Joined: 02 Aug 02
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11 Aug 20 22:20Joined: 02 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 23,983 | Blogger: stewarty b's blog
Apologies, I couldn't see the wood for the trees. That said, come November, if Trump is odds against I'll be having a punt on him. It's not about who you like in politics that counts as most will know.

The way I see it is that Biden, being spineless wont attract the votes he needs to get over the line.

It's all about opinions and I will repeat that if Trump is odds against come November I will be having a reasonable bet on him....due to the lack of opposition. (IMHO)

By:

Fatslogger When: 12 Aug 20 20:58

Do you think Trump needs opposition to lose? What do you make of his very poor polling and approval ratings? If anything, I'd say it's in Biden's favour here that he doesn't elicit very strong feelings.

By:

Monkey Boy:The Directors Cut When: 12 Aug 20 21:12

Utterly ridiculous political bet time triggered by reading an article on Democrat scenario planning in the US election.

If (as very likely) the US election goes pear-shaped due to delayed mail in voting and ends up in a long Supreme court battle the actual result may take several months to announce.

The US Constitution has Trump (and Pence) out on January 4th. According to the constitution the leader of the House of Representatives would take over as POTUS on the 5th January but from January 3rd 2020 Nancy Pelosi’s term ends. This leaves next in line the Senator who is the president pro tempore to take the job of US President until the official result is decided and inaugurated. He is called Chuck Grassley and he is available at 1000’s in next US President betting.

Not a full bank job but hey ho.

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 12 Aug 20 21:28

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z613_M5gxE

Biden v Bernie debate in full.

By:

politicspunter When: 12 Aug 20 21:33

Aug 12, 2020 -- 9:12PM, Monkey Boy:The Directors Cut wrote:

Utterly ridiculous political bet time triggered by reading an article on Democrat scenario planning in the US election.If (as very likely) the US election goes pear-shaped due to delayed mail in voting and ends up in a long Supreme court battle the actual result may take several months to announce.The US Constitution has Trump (and Pence) out on January 4th. According to the constitution the leader of the House of Representatives would take over as POTUS on the 5th January but from January 3rd 2020 Nancy Pelosi’s term ends. This leaves next in line the Senator who is the president pro tempore to take the job of US President until the official result is decided and inaugurated. He is called Chuck Grassley and he is available at 1000’s in next US President betting.Not a full bank job but hey ho.

Funnily enough, I have £2 on Nancy at 1000 in case this scenario occurs. Will check it out thanks.

By:

politicspunter When: 12 Aug 20 21:37

And now I have chucked £2 at Chuck.

By:

politicspunter When: 12 Aug 20 21:39

Folks might say it's mad to back 1000 shots, you are throwing your money away, no chance etc. However, it's always best to have a couple of hail mary punts when they are at the maximum price and your normal bets are in hundreds or even thousands.

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 12 Aug 20 21:43

Trump is hoping he can get the chance to challenge the result in court which is why he was droning on about Harris being very nasty to Brett Kavanaugh. He is hoping they can save his skin from the huge legal jeopardy he faces when he leaves office.

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 22:03

What is his huge legal jeopardy ?

Surely people are still not plugging Russiagate

By:

Escapee When: 12 Aug 20 22:24

regarding Chuck Glassley scenario.

These are the rules for the next president market...

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

I don't really understand them... Does it exclude a payout on chuck even if scenario plays out?

(I've chucked a fiver at chuck anyway, coz I like the story, but I might go for a bit more if you think
the rules will pay out as per the scenario described by Fats)

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 12 Aug 20 22:26

Trump is under investigation by New York State over his dodgy business dealings. He cannot be charged with a crime whilst still in office which is why he is so desperate to be re-elected.

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 22:49

The market is settled on the winner of the electoral college, so Trump or Biden could drop dead before inauguration but they still win.

So even if they die before the counting is finalized they would still win post mortem.

Even though the market is called 'Next President' only the winner of the electoral college will be settled on, even though they might theoretically not be next president.

Betfair do this repeatedly on political markets; the rules contradicting the title of the market.

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 22:53

I can't believe Trump is losing sleep re investigations into his businesses. If they haven't pinned anything in him in 50 years of dodgy deals hard to see them succeeding now.

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 12 Aug 20 22:58

I believe it is very serious indeed, relating to money laundering, bank fraud, insurance fraud, etc. That's why I described it as huge legal jeopardy.

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 23:42

Does it involve Deutsche Bank?

I recall some very peculiar relationship they had with Trump.

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 12 Aug 20 23:45

Yes, they are implicated.

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 12 Aug 20 23:54

Ultimately it's all about the evidence. If they are going to try and nail a former president in a criminal investigation they are going to need concrete, watertight evidence.

By:

tobermory When: 12 Aug 20 23:56

It was in a Netflix thing I saw. He owed them a billion or so and said he was not paying them and they said OK.

From what I've read of Trump's business career he seemed the ultimate 'fake it til you make it' guy. But I could not identify a point where the faking stopped. Every big deal the money seemed to be put up by someone else. And every time it went t1ts up for billions the banks just shrugged and gave him more money.

By:

unitedbiscuits When: 13 Aug 20 12:08

Some very good analysis here, although naturally I'm partial; enjoy:

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-kamala-harris-is-a-risk-that-could-backfire-on-biden-130820-171.html

By:

Whisperingdeath When: 13 Aug 20 12:22

I think they ( NY ) have the Deutsche Bank records already and that will open up a whole new ball of wax.