Politics
2.6 Trump to be next president of the US.
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I agree with stewartyb's OP
Yesterday I switched my position from Red on Trump & Green on everyone else to Green on Trump / ZERO on everyone else. Unless there is a significant incident, I will start loading up on Trump the day before the debates start and probably continue to election day ( Anything can happen ) I've just watched abut an hour of various Biden Debating & Talking on Youtube. He is useless at it. His debating skills. ---- He doesn't seem to find attack sound bites. ---- All his on the fly remarks seem to falter mid sentence as thoughts interrupt him. ---- He doesn't say anything memorable. ( Except gaffs ) ---- He doesn't show any awareness of the importance of the 3 to 5 word 'speaking in chunks' Subconscious faults. ---- His Body language is poor ---- His hand movements are minimal and soft ---- His Tone and demur give off the stereo type of a "past it" incumbent southern Republican politician. He's 78, only 4 years older than Trump but he comes across as 80+ and Trump comes across as 60+ From what I can see he only appeals to democrat voters in the way Corbyn only appealed to the left of the labour party. Do you ever hear about what Biden has said on twitter ? ( Does he even have a twitter account ) It's a crap world, getting crappier..... Betting that it will suddenly start getting less crappy doesn't seem like a good bet.  |
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I don’t think Biden is great, really I don’t but I think it’s verging on delusional to suggest that Trump will batter him in the debates, let alone that the guy who can’t even walk down a ramp looks a whole load younger. Trump is awful. He gets the odd attack line in but he’s absolutely no grasp of the facts and is very easy to rile and catch out in obvious errors, contradictions and lies. More importantly though, I just don’t think people will change their minds based on the debate. Look at the Trump (dis)approval ratings: folk who have bought into him will continue to believe in him and the larger group who dislike him mostly dislike him strongly. There aren’t a lot of undecideds to play for.
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I can't imagine the debates move the needle that much towards one way or the other. Both sides tend to just be preaching to their converted with sound bytes.
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Biden's video shows him riding his mountain bike and Donald's shows him using two hands to drink a glass of water.
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Especially as Trump's attack lines are likely to be even narrower this time around, with attack lines that don't appeal to anyone who isn't already voting for him. This whole if you vote Democrats you will have no police, your guns will be taken away, not appealing to anyone who isn't voting Republican already. Same with whatever he comes up how you will be speaking Chinese if Democrats win.
He no longer can play the idea that he brings a strong economy and low unemployment, indeed he's going to get attacked on those lines, and those are things that matter far more than any of the above. |
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wait till you see biden in action you might change your mind
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A lot of Escapee's post is just pop psychology and not particular relevant.
And agree with much of what Fatslogger said. This idea debates would be one sided is definitely based in an alternative reality where Trump supporters vastly inflate his debating skills. Biden will be trained to put in a passable performance and be well rehearsed. Biden's appeal being limited like Corbyn definitely appears to be wrong anyway because he looks to be popular with Obama 12 Trump 16 voters, more independents and is seemingly seen as more in touch with some of the rust belt places |
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That was also one of the key problems Labour had. That their messaging didn't cut through because it didn't appeal to anyone who wasn't already voting Labour anyway. Offering the likes of free broadband as a flagship policy you talk up is useless as the people supporting that already vote Labour. They would have been better off just making their entire campaign around the NHS, how they are the party of the NHS and Tories have mishandled it, as that's something that actually strikes with people, leave the rest to the manifesto.
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I would like to see Biden go off script for any TV debate and just ridicule him and keep hammering home how he will be remembered as the worst President in History. There is no point in debating politics with Chump. Just attack him personally and his family and ridicule him till it gets under his skin enough for him to explode.
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Anybody with half a brain cell know the debates aren't going to change that much, unless one of them has a heart attack on stage.
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Why is it hard to grasp the reality that there are not a whole load of undecided/swing voters to play for. It is blindingly obvious that perhaps 90% of voters have already made up their mind who they will vote (possibly higher) because this election is largely a referendum on Trump, and we've seen a whole load of Trump for 3 years and 9 months.
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I don't see the polls changing an awful lot from now till November 3rd. Maybe I'm wrong or naive but I just don't. I see Biden holding a 6-8% lead nationally, and a 4-6% lead in battleground states, which is again because most voters have made up their minds. There have been too many huge events in the past 6 months for anything to come along and dramatically shift people's views with 80 days to go. They may shorten a touch but not to the levels they did in 2016 when Clinton held a 3.2% average lead on the final day.
If Biden does hold a 6% lead in the national polls and a 4% average in battleground states (of which he needs 3 out of 6 to win) he will win. If you really believe polls could be out by that much (more than they supposedly were in Clinton vs Trump when less voters had made up their mind) then good luck to you. |
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@Fats "I think it’s verging on delusional to suggest that Trump will batter him in the debates"
Trump seemed to batter Hilary, Hilary seems to be a bit better debater than Biden. Why has Biden held back so far? there's so much mud that he could sling at Trump. Why isn't he making any impact? Where are Bidens soundbite attacks ? Where are the catchy phrases like: "Trump and his pedo friends", "A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin", "Trump thinks USA is great because he doesn't have to pay taxes" etc etc. Elections are not won with actual policies anymore. It's all about catch phrases. |
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I agree that most have made their minds up so the debates wont change much but Biden should not go into the debate thinking he is debating politics and policies. He is not even debating with a politician.
The other thing is the anti Chump Alliance is registering voters and many who couldn't be bothered last time will vote and that may well be the difference. Without them it would be a lot closer. Questioning his record is pointless. America elected a man whose gambit is to grab a woman by the pussay. Just have fun and try and upset him him would be my tictac. Call him out for being useless and a liar. Ask him how much Mexico have paid for the wall and why so many of his people ended up in jail pointing out his choice of swamp rats and ask him what qualifications his daughter has apart from having a President for a daddy. |
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A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling found that 51% thought Clinton won the debate, while 40% thought Trump won. A YouGov poll found that 57% of Americans declared Clinton the winner, while 30% declared Trump the winner.
It seems biased to suggest Trump battered Hillary. |
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there will be no live debates...bidens team will not allow him to debate live for obv reasons
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Hmm, the dates are now finalised.
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Daniel...."It seems biased to suggest Trump battered Hillary."
I can't claim to have any in-depth knowledge on who Battered who in the Hilary-Trump debates. I used the phrase "Trump battered Hillary" because that's what my very light weight googling seemed to indicate. And because Despite Hillary being declared a 91% favourite in the polls (NYTimes 1 week before 2016 election) Trump won. One memorable sound bite from the debates, when Hilary is saying the Judicial system is not safe with Trump, he replies "well you'd be in jail If I have control of judicial system" or something like that. The pundits all seemed to react like it was a battering. I really don't want to come across as biased, I'd like to think I'm not. I'm certainly not a supporter of Trump. But I think Biden is not skilled enough to win this election. "Will the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights" is credited with winning the election for the Tories.... not any policies. I'm just trying to work out how to win a bet. |
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Who won in 2016?
Not the politician! |
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Trump obviously won the debates against HRC. No one who understand politics disputes this.
But Biden is not HRC. If he comes out for two hours and remembers his name, what his running for and where he is that would prove a lot to the American people. If he chooses to debate on Zoom from his basement with his handlers telling him what to say on teleprompter questions might be asked. If Biden can possibly do the debates he must do them and prove people wrong about his cognitive decline. If he fails to do that Americans will know that a vote for Biden is actually a vote for Harris. |
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If he fails to do that Americans will know that a vote for Biden is actually a vote for Harris.
lets hope so! |
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the most memorable moment of the guy who OBVIOUSLY won the debates is that he said he would put his opponent in jail.
this is the skilled debater everyone should fear BTW |
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no one says a vote for Trump is a vote for Pence when Trump's brain is failing him daily too
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Well I've declared my current bets as Green Trump/Zero everyone else with the likelihood of backing trump some more as the debates start.
Anyone else actually betting on this ? Who are your greens and reds? |
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Laying Trump to win the Popular vote is free money. very large red on Trump on that one for me
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Insider Trader doesn't understand politics. That is why he was wiped out in the VP betting market.
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