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By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:16

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:14PM, politicspunter wrote:

Son of a gun, you are clueless. He doesn't need to switch Arizona, Florida or even Pennsylvania. He holds them because he won them in 2016. How many times do we have to tell you that basic fact?

The polls tell otherwise. But it's not about terminology, it's more about the possible permutations resulting from the electoral college.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:17

Son of a gun, try taking up ludo, something that you can grasp the basics of.

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:18

Do you know what the word 'flip' indicates? It suggests that the party (or candidate) who lost a state last time need to win it this time.

Trump won PA and AZ last time in 2016. He cannot 'flip' such states.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:21

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:17PM, politicspunter wrote:

Son of a gun, try taking up ludo, something that you can grasp the basics of.

You just can't admit that I am right. But that's okay, but don't come crying come election night.

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:21

Right about what

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:22

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:18PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:

Do you know what the word 'flip' indicates? It suggests that the party (or candidate) who lost a state last time need to win it this time. Trump won PA and AZ last time in 2016. He cannot 'flip' such states.

It's besides the point. You're just unable to explain why the market hasn't shifted towards 1,1 territory.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:23

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:21PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:

Right about what

That Trump does not need much to win. As I layed out to you above.

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 08 Oct 20 23:24

Are you going to post a screenshot and prove me wrong? You lumped on your hero at short prices thinking he was a certainty and now you are praying he wins to get you out of trouble.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:24

Son of a gun, I don't care who wins as long as I do. Only about 1% of my betting outlay at the moment is on the Trump/Biden outcome. The rest is on the hundreds of other markets associated with the states/senate/ house of representatives/electoral college/ vote share etc etc.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:25

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:24PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:

Are you going to post a screenshot and prove me wrong?

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:26

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:24PM, politicspunter wrote:

Son of a gun, I don't care who wins as long as I do. Only about 1% of my betting outlay at the moment is on the Trump/Biden outcome. The rest is on the hundreds of other markets associated with the states/senate/ house of representatives/electoral college/ vote share etc etc.

Good for you. That's not to say that Biden cannot win, but taking into account all the possible angles, it's not much more than a cointoss.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:27

Trump has less than a one in five chance.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:29

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:27PM, politicspunter wrote:

Trump has less than a one in five chance.

If you really believe that you should literally bet the farm. But deep down you know it's a lie, which is why you won't.

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:29

1) The market is falsely very wary of what happened in 2016. It is an extremely simple position to take but that is seemingly what is happening. However, this election is not 2016 and those punters have not grasped that simple reality. Trump is the incumbent and Biden is not Clinton.

2) 'Those punters' could be very high profile investors and possibly even be linked to the Trump campaign. It is very plausible and when millions are involved it is enough to alter the odds.

3) Other factors like cheating are thrown in to the mix.

And Trump needs a lot to win actually. He must win Florida, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina. You can probably put Pennsylvania in there too. If he loses any one of those states he loses the election. He is polling behind in every single one barring Texas, and even Texas is touch and go currently.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:30

But I give you a hint - Trump has still a lively following and he's not facing Obama.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:31

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:29PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:

1) The market is falsely very wary of what happened in 2016. It is an extremely simple position to take but that is seemingly what is happening. However, this election is not 2016 and those punters have not grasped that simple reality. Trump is the incumbent and Biden is not Clinton. 2) 'Those punters' could be very high profile investors and possibly even be linked to the Trump campaign. It is very plausible and when millions are involved it is enough to alter the odds. 3) Other factors like cheating are thrown in to the mix. And Trump needs a lot to win actually. He must win Florida, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina. You can probably put Pennsylvania in there too. If he loses any one of those states he loses the election. He is polling behind in every single one barring Texas, and even Texas is touch and go currently.

How is Joe doing with the Latino vote?

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:32

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:29PM, son of a gun wrote:

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:27PM, politicspunter wrote:Trump has less than a one in five chance.If you really believe that you should literally bet the farm. But deep down you know it's a lie, which is why you won't.

I bet on what opinion polls say. I don't look at bookie prices until I draw up my own tissue prices. Then I look at what's on the exchange/bookies. Right now, I make Biden around 1.18 and Trump 6.67 in that market.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:33

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:31PM, son of a gun wrote:

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:29PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:1) The market is falsely very wary of what happened in 2016. It is an extremely simple position to take but that is seemingly what is happening. However, this election is not 2016 and those punters have not grasped that simple reality. Trump is the incumbent and Biden is not Clinton. 2) 'Those punters' could be very high profile investors and possibly even be linked to the Trump campaign. It is very plausible and when millions are involved it is enough to alter the odds. 3) Other factors like cheating are thrown in to the mix. And Trump needs a lot to win actually. He must win Florida, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina. You can probably put Pennsylvania in there too. If he loses any one of those states he loses the election. He is polling behind in every single one barring Texas, and even Texas is touch and go currently.How is Joe doing with the Latino vote?

In which state in particular?

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:34

So, you do follow and believe polls then? Typical Trump fanboy - all over a poll when it reveals the slightest bit of positive news. Slightest being the key word, because Trump is still way down with Latino's but it is perhaps one demographic he could improve on in comparison to 2016 - however, turnout is going to be higher so maybe not.

Let's not talk about women, suburban voters, seniors or even white voters without college degrees...

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:34

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:30PM, son of a gun wrote:

But I give you a hint - Trump has still a lively following and he's not facing Obama.

Trump has a solid core vote of around 40%, his opponent is almost immaterial.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:39

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:34PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:

So, you do follow and believe polls then? Typical Trump fanboy - all over a poll when it reveals the slightest bit of positive news. Slightest being the key word, because Trump is still way down with Latino's but it is perhaps one demographic he could improve on in comparison to 2016 - however, turnout is going to be higher so maybe not. Let's not talk about women, suburban voters, seniors or even white voters without college degrees...

Biden has already lost a substantial amount of Latino votes and they might be the very reason for him losing the election.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:40

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:34PM, politicspunter wrote:

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:30PM, son of a gun wrote:But I give you a hint - Trump has still a lively following and he's not facing Obama.Trump has a solid core vote of around 40%, his opponent is almost immaterial.

It's not that simple. Otherwise we'd see 1,1 from the get-go.

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:40

Biden has already lost a substantial amount of Latino votes and they might be the very reason for him losing the election.

So what about Trump losing vast swathes of Women, seniors, suburban voters and even whites without college degrees? They don't matter then?

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:41

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:39PM, son of a gun wrote:

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:34PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:So, you do follow and believe polls then? Typical Trump fanboy - all over a poll when it reveals the slightest bit of positive news. Slightest being the key word, because Trump is still way down with Latino's but it is perhaps one demographic he could improve on in comparison to 2016 - however, turnout is going to be higher so maybe not. Let's not talk about women, suburban voters, seniors or even white voters without college degrees...Biden has already lost a substantial amount of Latino votes and they might be the very reason for him losing the election.

In which state is this please?

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:41

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:40PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:

Biden has already lost a substantial amount of Latino votes and they might be the very reason for him losing the election.So what about Trump losing vast swathes of Women, seniors, suburban voters and even whites without college degrees? They don't matter then?

I did not say that. But for Trump to win it's quite possible to hold on to the South/west, and that's not some kind of miracle imho.

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:42

Trump can hold on to all those Western and Southern states and lose the election.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:42

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:40PM, son of a gun wrote:

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:34PM, politicspunter wrote:Oct

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:44

son of a gun,
Don't confuse polling and electoral models with bookie prices. They are completely separate.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:45

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:41PM, politicspunter wrote:

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:39PM, son of a gun wrote:Oct

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:45

And to be honest it is looking like he will need a miracle.

He got a mini-miracle in 2016 with the unpopularity of the candidate he faced, the FBI investigation into her, and an 80000 vote swing across 3 states in which they actively suppressed the vote.

He is much further behind this time around and will need a much larger miracle.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:46

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:41PM, son of a gun wrote:

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:40PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:Biden has already lost a substantial amount of Latino votes and they might be the very reason for him losing the election.So what about Trump losing vast swathes of Women, seniors, suburban voters and even whites without college degrees? They don't matter then?I did not say that. But for Trump to win it's quite possible to hold on to the South/west, and that's not some kind of miracle imho.

You have been told multiple times now that Biden does not need to win any of those states in order to win.

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 08 Oct 20 23:48

You are wasting your time with him. He's a thicko Trump fanboy.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:48

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:45PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:

And to be honest it is looking like he will need a miracle. He got a mini-miracle in 2016 with the unpopularity of the candidate he faced, the FBI investigation into her, and an 80000 vote swing across 3 states in which they actively suppressed the vote. He is much further behind this time around and will need a much larger miracle.

You could call it that, but for a polarizing, incumbent President to win against someone like Biden I am not sure if that is a "miracle".

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:49

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:46PM, politicspunter wrote:

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:41PM, son of a gun wrote:Oct

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:50

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:48PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:

You are wasting your time with him. He's a thicko Trump fanboy.

But you surely do, I wonder why?

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:50

I am wasting my time. You're a lost cause, and as PP says you really shouldn't bet on who you want to win. Maybe do the opposite, then you win either way.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 23:51

Trumps opponent is almost irrelevant.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 23:52

Oct 8, 2020 -- 11:50PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:

I am wasting my time. You're a lost cause, and as PP says you really shouldn't bet on who you want to win. Maybe do the opposite, then you win either way.

Yeah, hey, why dont't you lump you lunch money on Biden if yer so sure about it? There's multiple books out there waiting to be taken advantage of, so what's with the hesitation?

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 08 Oct 20 23:53

I'm not wasting my time trying to explain very basic things to you that seem to be beyond your grasp. I'm just waiting for the screenshot to prove me wrong that you have a terrible book and are now seething.

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 23:53

Well obviously I am on Biden for over 7 months now.