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By:

edy When: 08 Oct 20 15:38

How do you know the ~30% "independents" aren't shy Republicans?

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 15:39

As I say, any poll has to be a representative cross section of the electorate. It just so happens that currently more persons are members of the democrat party than republican.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 08 Oct 20 15:39

Simple test is ask them how they voted last time, you know the result, so a simple back check.

By:

winningthought When: 08 Oct 20 15:40

We don't edy. Its a flawed system. Better off doing polling off zip codes.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 15:41

Flawed in what way? Polling was accurate in 2016 and incredibly accurate in the 2018 midterm elections.

By:

winningthought When: 08 Oct 20 15:44

We just have different calculi pp. I'm not sticking my head into polls for this one, these too much at stake for both parties to be relying on 'chance'.

By:

edy When: 08 Oct 20 15:49

The US Americans should've all supported Lawrence Lessig in the 2016 elections.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 15:50

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/06/14/trump-owns-a-shrinking-republican-party/

There is a basic graph on this link showing republican, democrat and independent voter breakdown over the years.

By:

winningthought When: 08 Oct 20 15:54

Polling was accurate in 2016

Polling was wrong throughout. Just because a 538 model gave 30% chance of a Trump win and you could back 5s on here doesn't make the 538 model right. And throughout the campaign we was even more out of wack with reality.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 15:55

All polls have to be representative of the electorate. It's vitally important that party affiliation as well as the normal standards such as gender/age/race are correctly accounted for.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 15:57

Oct 8, 2020 -- 3:54PM, winningthought wrote:

Polling was accurate in 2016 Polling was wrong throughout. Just because a 538 model gave 30% chance of a Trump win and you could back 5s on here doesn't make the 538 model right. And throughout the campaign we was even more out of wack with reality.

Polling was not wrong in 2016. National polls said Clinton would win. She did, by three million votes. State polls said battlegrounds were much closer. They were, only one state out of the fifty (Wisconsin) was outside the margin of error.

By:

winningthought When: 08 Oct 20 15:59

We'll have to agree to disagree. Hypothetical: Trump wins in a landslide this year.

1) The polls were wrong
2) Trump cheated

What would you go with?

By:

DanielKoellerer When: 08 Oct 20 16:01

How can polls be out by 20%. That’s how wrong they’d have to be for trump to win in a landslide, and I don’t really see how he’s going to cheat - he isn’t calling his lines in a tennis match here.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 16:02

There is no possible chance that Trump wins in a landslide.

By:

winningthought When: 08 Oct 20 16:02

We'll just have to wait and see then

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 16:03

It's ok, I don't need to wait

By:

Fatslogger When: 08 Oct 20 16:06

Oct 8, 2020 -- 3:07PM, edy wrote:

Everybody is always a HUGE meanie that conspires against Trump

It’s funny how much he whines and cries for such a tough guy, isn’t it?

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 08 Oct 20 16:09

The more nonsense I hear from Trump fanboys the more I lay Trump.

By:

edy When: 08 Oct 20 16:18

Being a crybaby that fosters the massive victimhood mentality among parts of the white male demographic has always been a huge of of the Trump success model.

Not only with Trump, but also e.g white supremacy is entirely based on being victims.

By:

Fatslogger When: 08 Oct 20 16:24

Oct 8, 2020 -- 4:18PM, edy wrote:

Being a crybaby that fosters the massive victimhood mentality among parts of the white male demographic has always been a huge of of the Trump success model.Not only with Trump, but also e.g white supremacy is entirely based on being victims.

Oh yes, absolutely. There’s a cognitive dissonance at the heart of these far right groups (don’t think Trump himself is far right, just a panderer to them) whereby the enemy is both feeble and unmanly but also terrifying and they are courageous fighters who soldier huge burdens without complaint while also whingeing like bitches incessantly.

By:

Fatslogger When: 08 Oct 20 16:32

Oct 8, 2020 -- 4:02PM, politicspunter wrote:

There is no possible chance that Trump wins in a landslide.

When he doesn’t that won’t prove that there was no possible chance but I have to say I think Trump being beyond 55% is so wildly unlikely that I struggle to assign a probability to it, let alone numbers beyond that.

By:

dave1357 When: 08 Oct 20 17:05

So trump speculates that he caught covid from meeting Gold star families - which would mean he was the WH superspreader.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/520180-trump-suggests-gold-star-families-could-have-infected-him
.

By:

dave1357 When: 08 Oct 20 17:37

iirc we are having a convo about trump's good people in Michigan

https://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-foiled-right-wing-militia-plot-kidnap-michigan-gretchen-whitmer-2020-10?r=US&IR=T

Federal prosecutors have charged five men with plotting to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and overthrow the state's government, Detroit News first reported.

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 08 Oct 20 17:42

At least six men, all very fine people no doubt.

https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/08/feds-thwart-militia-plot-kidnap-michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer/5922301002/

By:

timbuctooth When: 08 Oct 20 17:43

The polls were right? Tell that to the 1.09 hilary backers!

By:

cooperman When: 08 Oct 20 17:49

I love a bit of whataboutery

from an expert like timmeh.

By:

SontaranStratagem When: 08 Oct 20 17:54

Good men will go to war, jack bauer, and when they do there's no rules with them, they go full commando overnight

By:

Jack Bauer '24' When: 08 Oct 20 17:56

The FBI have these terrorists under surveillance, so I hope there will be more arrests to come before the election as many are planning to do everything they can to disrupt the process and then to turn to violence in the streets when Trump loses.

By:

edy When: 08 Oct 20 19:45

Heard Trump is scared of debating normal citizens

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 21:27

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54470427

FBI busts militia 'plot' to abduct Michigan Gov Gretchen Whitmer

This is what happens when the USA President openly supports white supremacist groups.

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 08 Oct 20 21:29

What groups would that be he is openly supporting ?

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 21:36

The one above.

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 21:37

Amongst others.

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 08 Oct 20 21:45

Ur suggesting that Trump would support a democratic Governor being Kidnapped ?
I don't think so .

By:

politicspunter When: 08 Oct 20 21:47

I am not suggesting anything. I am stating as fact that he supports white supremacist groups.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 08 Oct 20 22:24

Stand down and stand by...

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 22:34

Oct 8, 2020 -- 5:42PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:

At least six men, all very fine people no doubt.https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/08/feds-thwart-militia-plot-kidnap-michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer/5922301002/

Attempted Hijacking.

This is different to thugs shooting at cops and rioting in the streets.

But whatever floats yer boat.

By:

son of a gun When: 08 Oct 20 22:35

Oct 8, 2020 -- 5:43PM, timbuctooth wrote:

The polls were right? Tell that to the 1.09 hilary backers!

Shhhhhh, don't disturb these sharp minds who are not even aware of the fact that the polls merely reflect the popular vote.

By:

edy When: 08 Oct 20 22:36

There are polls for every state in addition to nation-wide ones.

By:

dave1357 When: 08 Oct 20 22:36

He described the armed thugs who stormed the michigan state capitol as "good people".