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Trumps task is massive. If he were competitive in places like New Hampshire, Nevada or Colorado perhaps, he could cause Biden problems but he isn't in the hunt in these states that Hillary marginally won. North Carolina is right in the shake up too, a state Trump holds but is also a toss up.
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^^They are all generally susceptible to October surprises, which is what trump is banking on.
I genuinely think that Durham/Barr etc are going to try and imply that Biden is facing criminal investigation, also they will be allowing the pootinbots to run wild. Look at the nonsense letter they released earlier this week "Obama/Biden knew the russians thought that Hills had approved a plan to blame the trump campaign for the DNC hack" |
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The economist's similarity between states model is fairly useful.
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Umpteen surprises could be sprung but the fact remains that 90%+ of voters are certain who they are voting for and under no circumstances will that change according to all pollsters.
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Maybe. But it's all speculation, people are voting already, and turnout is going to be very high. People are more aware of such tricks from 2016, and so are the social media companies.
It comes back down to a simple reality. If Trump loses any one of Texas (goes without saying), Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina or Pennsylvania he is done for (In that order of being very greatly done for) - due to state correlations and whatever else. |
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Does Paul Krishnamurty contribute to this forum?
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The Biden backers seem overly confident but he's got the job on not Trump
Trump is going to win it quite easily in my opinion |
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Hope Hicks tests positive with the Trump virus, so as one of the closest people around Trump there is a fair chance he has also been infected.
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Infected with the bull s***
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BREAKING NEWS: Theresa Greenfield leads Joni Ernst by 12 points in new poll..
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A young buck at the tender age of 57
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Why does Melanie have to isolate...she doesn’t let Chump anywhere near her
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Schadenfreude
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Trump out to 3 and Betfair suspend the market. Why???
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tested positive
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It's quite possible he'll be in quarantine until after the election. Quarantine lasts 10 days after symptoms end.
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Betfair - The Presidential Election Market, and all related markets, has been globally suspended because of Donald Trump's positive COVID-19 test.
So that "could" be it for betting on this election on betfair. I know when Boris had Covid bf paused some markets, but the US election market rules are clear that "If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death" the market will stand - so I don't really agree with this. |
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He'll be OK. Dr. Ronnie Jackson gave him a medical report that superman would have been proud of.
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Temporarily suspended I would assume.
I think many punters will have factored in Biden and Trump's ages into their betting, them catching the virus and/or dying. It was never completely out of the question and still isn't when you have a 74 and 77 year old or whatever they are. |
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Yes, they did the same with the next PM market when Johnson was ill, which irritated me, as I felt I had quite good insight into the market at that point and have otherwise traded it pretty terribly since the GE! I felt then and feel now that it’s more of a taste thing than anything else. Betfair won’t want to be open to criticism of making money on a life or death situation. I think it’s unlikely that they’ll end up pulling the market if Trump does die, which remains very much an outside chance anyway. Good time to have £10.3k green on Pence though. If the market were open I might convert some of it. I don’t think he should be as short as 30s.
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If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules (Updated - 20/06/2020)
Betfair rules on this market. |
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Well, hopefully we will soon find out if injecting bleach cures Covid.
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1.01 he has already had an injection of convalescent plasma.
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btw the EC ticket is trump/pence, so there are going to be arguments about who gets EC votes on which the market is based. The EC votes market for trump will be voided if he dies, so that's inconsistent.
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All bookies/exchanges/punters will be currently scrambling to find out where they stand, me included.
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Event Start Time
03 November 2020, 13:00 Win Only Market MARKET INFORMATION For further information please see Rules & Regs. Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2020 US presidential election? This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond This is for Betfair states. These markets have been suspended but not sure why as it clearly says it's the party not a named candidate. Unless of course the whole election is cancelled and the market would be void if not taking place in 2020. |
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Could be suspended for some time.
I wonder if they will void a few bets which must have been placed with knowledge? Mike pence matched quite low. Hope nobody caught it at the debate |
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Sky listing the drugs that trump is on.
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What an awful thing to say. I hope that Trump and The First Lady do not get symptoms and recovery well and also hope Biden is not positive. At this stage it is only a positive test for the virus. He has does not necessary have Covid 19. To have the disease you have to have symptoms. virtue signalling. He's got nothing to worry about, it just goes away... |
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Don-mestos being delivered to white house
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Look, someone with a sniffle, count that as Covid!
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Maybe Insider Trader doesn't realise her name is 'Hope Hicks'
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^^ ha ha that's it - what a mug!
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Will stormy Daniels be getting a test?
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Maybe Insider Trader doesn't realise her name is 'Hope Hicks'
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He's embarrassed now.
It's a NAME - HOPE Hicks. Not 'I hope HOPE Hicks tests positive....' |
