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^^at least joe didn't have to pay someone to sit his exams for him.
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Meanwhile, The Don gets his THIRD!!! Nobel Peace Prize nom!!!!!
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Gitmo, is obama`s cell ready? hilary`s? brennan`s?
Ratcliffe declassifies documents showing hilary`s involvement in the russia hoax, and obama`s full knowledge of it https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-briefed-clinton-russia-vilify-trump-distract |
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The only one going to jail is trump
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The big question is who is going to go to jail with him!
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Refused to condemn white supremacy and white nationalist militia's. That should win a lot of votes.
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yes can see that featuring in some of the adverts funded by the millions that biden is raising.
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At least nobody threw any cans of tuna at him. Apparently can be lethal.
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Apparently if you received the $600 payments from the Donald, they were taxable. If you received all of them you'll pay more in tax than Trump.
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https://twitter.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1311691179130580992
This is nuts. Hes condemned white supremacy numerous times. His spokesperson gives quotes even one from yesterday and hack wants him to come out again and issue one today Meanwhile Joe Biden gives a eulogy of a former KKK grand wizard (Robert Byrd) and not a bean from the media. Hes made multiple more racial comments than Trump and hes the hero of minorities in the US? |
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Yeah, they definitely keep asking Trump about white supremacists because he’s consistently condemned them, clearly has no time for them and are just hoping he’ll accidentally get it wrong on the off chance.
Oh look, he got it wrong on the off chance. Again. |
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Biden ahead 54-41 in first national poll conducted since debate.
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Who the hell are "Proud Boys"? I've never heard of them before and sound a little feminine tbh.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519111-rnc-trump-campaign-push-back-on-push-to-change-debate-rules
Be interesting to see how this plays out. The moderator cutting mikes seems the obvious change, but the rules around exactly when this is done would have to be agreed. Must be odds against that the three debates make the airwaves. |
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OK they have wiki page.
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^^yeah I thought they were a male stripper troupe.
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Association with Fred Perry clothing
Proud Boy in a Fred Perry polo and MAGA hat at a neo-Confederate rally in 2019 The Proud Boys do not have an official uniform, but many members had taken to wearing black and yellow tipped Fred Perry polo shirts as an unofficial uniform.[157][158] The brand, having previously been negatively associated with skinheads and the British National Front in the 1970s,[158] issued several public statements distancing themselves from the beliefs of the Proud Boys, and calling on members to stop wearing their clothing.[159][160] In 2017, Fred Perry's CEO John Flynn denounced the affiliation with the Proud Boys in a statement to CBC Radio, saying: "We don't support the ideals or the group that you speak of. It is counter to our beliefs and the people we work with."[161] The black and yellow tipped Fred Perry polo shirts have not been sold in the US since September 2019, and in September 2020, it has announced that it will not be selling them in the US until it is satisfied that association with Proud Boys is sufficiently removed.[162] Do I need to change out my tennis gear? |
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prob yes it's nearly time for you to go to bed
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politicspunter • October 1, 2020 9:44 PM BST
Biden ahead 54-41 in first national poll conducted since debate. C- poll though National polls don't matter as you know, trump gets a 1% swing and its down to pennsylvania, where the local gop are preparing a coup. |
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National polls are useful for assessing movement. They aren’t the best way of predicting the EC, no but a national lead of over 6% for Biden pretty much takes the Trump EC advantage out of play for a comfortable win.
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local gop are preparing a coup.
Sounds about right. What sort of coup? |
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National polls can certainly matter. If he's ahead by 8 in the polls come election day, and they are out by say 2%, he wins by 6% nationally.
There's no way Trump wins all of Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia from a -6% national position. He will have to win every one of those states if he is going to win. If he loses any one of those states and wins the E.C I will eat my hat. |
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this is the mistake that people made last time. It is only the difference in the swing states that matter. florida atm is 48.7 T 50.5 B - a 1% swing wins it for trump and that's without the GOP cheating. Arizona is 48.1 T 50.6 B so 1.3% does that. Penn is more comfortably biden 52.2/47.1, but the GOP state legislature is planning shenanigans.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ these guys had trump at 30% last year. Right now they have him at 20%. |
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Dave, Biden doesn't need to win Florida or Arizona. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will do.
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Did you read my post? The bit where I said "Penn is more comfortably biden 52.2/47.1, but the GOP state legislature is planning shenanigans."
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look at that link - there is a "snake" a bit down the page it shows the states and present predictions.
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Yes ok, but with Michigan and Wisconsin looking very strong for Biden currently, Trump would have to win virtually every other competitive state of which there are many.
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It's ok, I follow 538, have done for years.
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^^it isn't an acca - they are all linked. If trump wins arizona, it means he is much more likely to win penn. Hopefully we will see B's lead widening in polls from some of those states as a result of his disasters, but that has yet to happen.
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If you go off state polls and ignore the national average, Biden is actually further clear nationally. Nate Silver showed this the other day when Biden was 7.1% up av. Working out the national average from state polls had him at +8%.
The state polls are reading just fine for Biden. |
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If Biden maintains a 6% or so national polling average lead, that will filter down and I can't see any way Trump can win if that happens. Trump is in a much worse position than he was with Hillary, there are too many states he would have to win.
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Hillary only won the national vote by 2.1% and Trump won the electoral college because his vote was spread incredibly efficiently (and luckily).
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^^
this is like pulling nails. Yes they are looking fine However, they aren't independent. A small swing in national polls to trump means that all the swing states that biden needs to win are in play. Why do you think you can't do multiples in state betting? |
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A small swing in national polls to trump means that all the swing states that biden needs to win are in play.
No, they are not. A small swing nationally for Trump does not mean Michigan and Wisconsin are in play. Unless you're defining a small swing as 3%, which isn't small. |
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Dave, relax. No one is claiming they are multiples/accas. Here is a thing, Biden is doing much better with Northern working class whites than Hillary. This brings into play Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. There is a very strong chance, in my opinion, that he will win all of these. He also could win Ohio and Iowa which are also in toss up land. Arizona, Georgia, Florida and Texas could be classed as a different group where he hasn't being doing so well recently but is still in the shake up in all of them.
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States are not entirely independent but you didn't make a great comparison with Arizona to Pennsylvania - they are quite different from one another demographically and in many other ways.
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