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Yes she was told to boot the advisors out or go herself so she has booted them out, the problem she has now is the FACT that those two are the only people within the heirarchy that she has in her corner. Them going weakens her yet further (if that was possible) and she now has no-one to turn to as she relied on them far too much it seems. It is a pretty near certainty that she'll be gone sooner rather than later, it's just whether in the next couple of days the DUP negotiations go badly, if that happens she'll chuck it in.
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ids wants her to stay to ensure his hard breakfast
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Plenty in the hierarchy want her to stay and have publicly said so.
Even the ones that don't like her are aware not her not staying is worse than her staying. She's their by default but it's their best option and plenty have said so. The alternative is just too bad hence she's going nowhere soon |
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there not their
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if she makes a pilge of breakfast shes going anyway
jobsagoodun! |
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I think this market is surprisingly excited by the, in my view, very narrow chances that May will jump; be pushed or be unable enough to form a deal with the DUP that she jumps or is pushed. If the Tories were going to get rid, or she was going to resign especially, would have already happened. The longer it goes the less likely it is. The Tories are ruthless and practical: having not got her to go, whether they tried or not just after the result, it's now next to impossible for there to be an orderly succession and it would be crazy to trigger any more chaos, especially with the Brexit negotiations starting in about five minutes. I'd also not expect the DUP to fail to support her as that's how they get their hateful, anti abortion, anti LGBT faces stuffed with gold.
That May will then be a very lame duck indeed, especially as her authoritarianism and alleged competence were her only strengths and both are now in ruins, isn't really the point for this market. This was meant to be a calm post about the market but I fear I may have given away just a hint of what I think of the protagonists. |
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It is getting stupid now, every national world leader seems to have called or Tweeted congratulating her on becoming PM. Loads of massive news agencies are referring to her as PM yet Betfair are experts on this and know the small print on what defines somone as Prime Minister? They should have settled the market when they suspended it when she visited the Queen, she had her chance at the podium to resign or contine and she continued. Ridiculous.
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By the published rules the suspension was obviously wrong and leaving it open is obviously right. That they've defined PM slightly differently to others is fine - it's there in the small print that a government has to be formed.
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Says the person with a massive on Nay
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"Lay on May" I mean
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The rules have always clearly stated the need to form a government.
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"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has agreed in principle a "confidence and supply" deal to support a Conservative government, it has been announced"
All over now but the shouting. Taking the weekend off, indeed. |
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If she is offering them cabinet seats that is desperate . Can see plenty of Tories saying fk this and refusing to serve. This makes it more likely she will go imo
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reckon this'll settle tonight
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Long way from over , has appointed 5 ministers out of 60 odd
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its confidence and supply so no ministers
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this market wont settle until 19th june
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i would have thought that the most important part is stability at present to guarantee that labour are out in the cold.
having got that settled with a leadership challenge is likely soonest but what has boris or anyone else got to gain by a challenge now |
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DUP now saying talks but no agreement YET ...these guys don't do Sundays ..so this may drag on for a spell
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The Democratic Unionist Party has agreed in principle a "confidence and supply" deal to support a Conservative government, Downing Street has said.
No 10 said the outline deal would be discussed at a cabinet meeting on Monday. Does that not suggest that a government has been formed? Queen had already given assent to May to form govt -- Does not need opening of Parliament before market is settled |
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Forming a government requires appointing ministers. If she did that without speaking to the DUP it would be settled. The DUP are not really relevant to the market.
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Something else to consider:
The Betfair Sportsbook had a sign up promotion where a new user would get enhanced odds on May being PM after the election at 4/1, it was in a few newspapers etc. i wonder if they settled that market and if they paid out. I didn't see anything in the small print about "coalition" this or "form a government" that just the usual sign up rubbish about max bet of £5 and returns to be paid out in free bets etc |
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Sunday papers absolutely brutal for May.
DUP contradicting the earlier No.10 claim that an agreement in place too ..... |
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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-chancellor-merkel-10-june-2017
This is from the governments web-site, referring to May as prime minister, there are numerous official announcements on Governments websites referring to May as Prime Minister dating from the 9 June, after the election, could it be that betfair like the interest that the money tied up up this market earns? |
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The rules state the prime minister who forms a government after the election.
They do not mention 'person referred to as prime minister by the media' She is referred to as Prime Minister because she is PM until she resigns , same as Gordon Brown was. The issue is whether she will form a government before she resigns. |
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Of course gov.uk is May's own press office , not some neutral thing.
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someone must be PM ?
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tobermory Rubbish .gov.uk is OFFICIAL government web site.
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https://www.gov.uk
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From the Market Rules:
"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election." A Government hasn't been formed yet, so... |
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Number one rule of using betfair is to know the market rules.
Ties in One Day Cricket used to be settle as a Dead Heat - plenty did their conkers. Probably the most famous examples are the First Goal Scorers markets, where the market isn't complete. This was particularly nasty because people may not know what was meant by 'incomplete market' and blindsided that 'runners may be added'. Similar things happened with Top Scorer in cricket markets. And to this day, people moan about Tennis retirements. |
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Agreed winning thought, but there are 78 ministers in total and 18 government whips. The 5 most senior ministers have been appointed and are managing their departments. It might take until after the queens speech to appoint all of them
. Betfair is unlikely to wait until all minsters are appointed. |
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tories spinning a deal with dup that had not happened
does may have cash on being pm ? |
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those brown envelopes take time to get to northern ireland
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The rules are clear, she has to form a government, just because the next door neighbour's window cleaner thinks she's PM, it doesn't make it so.
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She will announce deal with DUP and have govt in place -- betfair will then settle market.
But don't expect announcement today because 'officially' DUP do not work/negotiate on Sundays |
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News just on BBC :
Stand by your beds folks, as we expect announcements of a cabinet reshuffle imminently. However, Theresa May has already confirmed some senior cabinet positions: • Chancellor of the Exchequer - Philip Hammond • Home Secretary - Amber Rudd • Foreign Secretary - Boris Johnson • Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union - David Davis • Defence Secretary of State for - Sir Michael Fallon Cabinet Office minister and Paymaster General is currently the only vacant post, after Ben Gummer lost his Ipswich seat to Labour's Sandy Martin. |
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Housing, charities, health minister also lost their seats.
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