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Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?
Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?
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Replies: 745
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Just spoke to VIP customer services and the guy confirmed that it will be settled after the Queen's speech is passed. He said he's well aware than Betfair has dug itself into a hole on this one and doesn't know what will happen if the Queen's speech doesn't pass. Not sure anyone at Betfair knows what will happen if it doesn't pass.
He confirmed that if a second general election is called, all bets on this market will be void and as such selections like a Con majority and a Lab majority are impossibilities (I've currently got around 60% of my bank in red on both). The whole situation is an absolute farce now. The bloke readily admitted to me that the punters know much more than the market ops team about the criteria necessary for a government to be formed. The pitfalls of a poor market ops teams and an unwritten constitution! |
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As for sweeping up the residual cash, I thought that would have happened already. I just can't believe you can get 1.03 still. Politics is great for buying money.
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There really is no reason to think it will be settled based on the result of the vote on the Queen's Speech considering that there have been so many opportunities to settle so far and it still has not settled. Maybe there'll want to see what happens in the Lords or await the result of any court cases that are taken. Ased on the DUP deal. Maybe we'll have to wait to see if any actual vote can get through the Commons other than the speech.
Suring that time we'll have to hope that Theresa May doesn't die or hope that there isn't another Grenfell fire where Labour seem to be able to pin on the blame on the Conservatives. I really think that some people must be betting on this market without realising that we're talking about the election that took place nearly 4 weeks ago. Anyway, I'm laying off my original bets now at 1.03 because this is just bullshit and I'm not putting it all on the line for a market that will never settle. |
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Fatslogger thanks for the update - that's good to know - I don't understand why Betfair could not simply have sent a message to all engaged in this market to explain that - I don't believe I bet on the passing of the Queen's speech, but the company at a minimum should have set out its position by now and done the courtesy of informing everyone, instead of this piecemeal, nonsense information customer services are providing. I'm personally not worried on the outcome, she's stayed this long, she'll stay for the passing of the QS, but irrespective Betfair's approach and attitude are totally unacceptable and the more complaints that are made and the potential fines they may incur from regulators, the less likely this will happen in the future - total disgrace imho.
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Wasn't me with the update kissmy. Agree that Betfair has been shocking over this, as do they, from romfordiron's post.
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Sorry, thanks romfordiron for the info!!
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There will be another 3 Queen's speeches' during the term of this government, maybe they're waiting for all of them to pass.
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Big chunks coming in yo back now, into 1.02
Maybe settlement today.. |
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Probably, as it gets closer to the vote.
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How on earth can they void bets if a second election is called? We were betting on the last election.
How can they **** up a market so much by tying up everyones money for a few weeks then void the market because they don't have a clue. Unbelievable. |
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I completely agree. As it is, we have a PM and a Con minority government. There's no coalition or majority of any sort, so both markets should be settled.
Whether the government can or cannot pass legislation is neither here nor there. What Betfair are waiting for is a measurement of the strength of this government, not a confirmation of its existence. |
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romfordiron Joined: 10 Nov 10
Replies: 95 27 Jun 17 10:02 Just spoke to VIP customer services and the guy confirmed that it will be settled after the Queen's speech is passed. He said he's well aware than Betfair has dug itself into a hole on this one and doesn't know what will happen if the Queen's speech doesn't pass. Not sure anyone at Betfair knows what will happen if it doesn't pass. He confirmed that if a second general election is called, all bets on this market will be void and as such selections like a Con majority and a Lab majority are impossibilities (I've currently got around 60% of my bank in red on both). The whole situation is an absolute farce now. The bloke readily admitted to me that the punters know much more than the market ops team about the criteria necessary for a government to be formed. The pitfalls of a poor market ops teams and an unwritten constitution! I acknowledge that both possibilities are extremely unlikely but disagree that either Conservative Majority or Labour Majority Governments are impossible based on the June 2017 Election results. Among other possibilities, I believe that the Tories could form a Conservative Majority Government if 8 Westminster MPs from other Political Parties 'crossed the floor' and joined the Conservative Parliamentary Party. Labour could form a Labour Majority Government if 64 MPs from other Political Parties joined the Labour Parliamentary Party. Perhaps Dianne might be so keen on gorgeous Gove, she can no longer restrain herself from setting aside all expressed principles and statements to date and intends to join the Conservative Party imminently? Other possibilities, particularly if there had been no DUP announcement and votes are delayed, could be 8 Tory by-election gains? That could enable a Conservative Majority without a 2nd General Election, as such, being called and, again arguably, remain consistent with the 'Next Government' market rules? The rules of the 'Next Government' market are at least absolutely clear with regards as to a 2nd election being called with no Government having been formed; the 'Next PM' rules are far from satisfactory. I have also laid both Labour/Conservative Majority significantly. I can understand people freeing up funds at 1000 but it was somewhat baffling for it to be possible to lay 3 figure sums at prices significantly below 1000 on Labour Majority last weekend for many hours. |
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cash out - good night and f off betfair - appalling handling of this market
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having stayed with it , i can wait until tomorrow afternoon.
what is appalling from betfair is that they have steadfastly refused to ever publish or clarify the terms and conditions on what deems a final settlement position of the market despite being asked to many times by their customers ...causing some concern and distress. |
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And that's why, irrespective of whether they settle tomorrow or not, I intend to follow this up with IBAS and any other regulatory body to ensure that Betfair change their approach going forwards. They think they can get away with murder just because they preface "they have the right...", actually they don't - what they are doing by not stating their position is beyond the claim of "reasonable" action.
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kissmy - I think the next time they offer this market the rules will be explicit.
I'd apply Hanlon's razor here. They underestimated the likelihood of a hung parliament and failed to consider the implications of the constitutional confusion which followed. They've now dragged settlement out as to the farthest event possible. Given the bother it must have caused their customer support and market ops, I'd expect they already have enough incentive to be more thorough next time. As others have said, the real failure here has been their reluctance to clearly communicate which event they consider to be sufficient to settle, particularly after closing and re-opening the market which is when they should have made a statement, and they have seemingly been moving the goal-posts since the election result. |
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I hear what you are saying, but I've got a bet on Next PM - the terms of this bet are crystal clear - following the election, no one in the country other than Betfair doesn't consider TM the 'next' PM - if she, for whatever reason, leaves her post now or the government gets voted down, that doesn't mean she wasn't the PM after the election as "deemed" by Betfair's original T&Cs - so Betfair, if you are reading this, perhaps you'd be so kind to explain...(obviously they won't...).
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the 700th post here
 . Interestingly, I found this under T&C for Bet 365: Next Government and Prime Minister after the next General Election will be settled based on the first government formed after the General Election. For the avoidance of doubt, that government must pass a Queen’s Speech or win a confidence motion in the House of Commons. For a party to be considered part of a coalition they must have representation in the Cabinet. A minority government is one in which the parties forming a coalition have fewer than 326 seats.. I have found in the past that Betfair often seem to follow their lead. That would point to a settlement tomorrow but why on earth -like people have said here - communicate that clearly. |
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* haven't bf communicated that clearly?
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Okay, but haven't 365 already settled ?
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That's Bet 365 and good on them for being clear at least - this is the line from Betfair's T&Cs : "This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election" - nothing about passing the Queen's speech - she's given assent and the government is formed - whether it lasts very long is a completely different bet.
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Oh, and PMQs is on now...Betfair must think TM is an imposter then...
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@ THEMONEYSHOT : No, I don't believe they have
@ kissmy : I am not defending Betfair in any way, should have settled after the DUP deal at the latest. I have 20k tied up myself. |
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Interesting commission review on bet arbitration - am emailing consumers@gamblingcommission.gov.uk and giving them my 2 pennies on this situation. If they are holding 20k of your cash and 10k of mine, god knows how much they are holding - they should be forced to compensate...
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These are chicken feed amounts in comparison with the total market.
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That's right, they've matched over £13 million in this market - and everyone's money is being held
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£50 free bet for all involved in the market would be an adequate gesture
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all the 1.02 is now being cleaned up...
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must have been seeding their own markets (those massive amounts on JC, and Lab-Lib Dem-SNP), now all have been pulled
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Finally in the mop up phase, this market. Can't believe it's taken so long from Betfair to settle or the market to accept the inevitable. Will be very glad to have my profits and my liquidity back.
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Just before they pay out, I'm going to ask Gina M whether she might toddle off to the Supreme Court to issue a challenge to the official result.
Naturally it's not because I had £2 on Gove at 999/1 and wouldn't mind a green-up at a much shorter price. No, it's only right that some ludicrous reason should be fabricated so that the courts should pass judgement on this important matter of state, and not the voters. |
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If you think there is some kind of betfair conspiracy or that the market may have been creatively massaged, you should have a look at the LibDem leader market, where no contest is apparently going to take place yet some chunky amounts have been wagered. Some folks in the know have well and truly cornered this market at no risk of loss.
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Talk of a 12 week Summer Holiday before a final decision on what the Tories are doing
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/parliament-summer-holiday-extension-theresa-may-mps-plotting-coup-three-months-house-commons-lords-a7807901.html
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this wasn't in the original rules was it?
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. If there is any change to the established ministerial role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. |
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Definitely new and also altered the rules for next government, I'm pretty sure. Not that it will matter but is further poor behaviour.
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