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Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?
Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?
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Replies: 745
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Apparently you can still have a bet on this. Quite strange. They've signed an agreement and everything. I don't see how waiting for Queen's Speech is any more necessary than it would have been had the Tories got 328 seats of their own.
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I now have only a bit over a grand in my account as I hoovered up a load of May at 1.05 and Tory minority at 1.03. Stick a fork in it Betfair.
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They are waiting until tomorrow. Some outfit
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Classic betfair. Had similar with both Trump and Hillary in the primaries - and before that with some Italian GE way back (Prodi). Always the last to settle. If you read the exact wording of the market, all the elements have been checked off (forming a government, royal assent etc). Really know how to put you through hell.
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What can they need more than this? Just messaged them, said they were looking in to it?
This has been an odd market, I even laid some "Labour majority" yesterday.....which was impossible? I have only £85 left in my account....it did seem too good to ignore. |
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yes, and someone wants to back lab-lib dem-snp coalition for 3 k at odds 48 and 5 k at 65. Amazing innit?
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That money on Labour has been there for ages, can't imagine why.....then again I can't imagine why betfair have yet to suspend & setlle.....
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I can see why they delayed on Trump and Clinton, given how random Trump is and the rumours about the resistance to nominate him and the risk of the FBI torpedoing Clinton. This is ridiculous though.
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Wtf are they waiting on now?
Heard news on radio, fully expected market to be settled when logged in. Won't be betting on politics again |
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Murky waters here. It's very unclear what's preventing settlement, in fact that decision seems now to be exclusively at betfair's discretion, and that seems pretty unfair on whoever is laying may at 1.03 and below.
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They've just told me that the markets "should all be settled today" but that they need to be sure that "they are settled correctly". I pointed out that their own rules define a minority government as one that would "see all the Cabinet posts filled by one party, but supply and confidence would be enjoyed by that party by one or more other parties in Parliament in order to pass votes and budgets etc." ie precisely the agreement that has now been signed and made public.
God knows what they're doing. |
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Must be one of the best 1.03 shots ever, 3% profit on same day
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It's been very clear to just about everyone that there has been a Conservative minority government since the General Election and that Theresa May has been and is the current Prime Minister.
I suppose Betfair are waiting 'til the vote on the Queen's Speech on Thursday which should be passed by a majority of at least 14 before paying out. But even if the vote failed wouldn't there have still been a short lasting minority government with TM as PM for the period 8/6/2017-29/6/2017. I'm certain the history books would record it that way. |
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I was told they were waiting on an official announcement that a deal had been reached with the DUP then all bets would be settled.
This has now obviously been done today, there really is no excuse left now |
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They're maybe waiting on local rumours that the Brownies have joined up with the boy scouts to launch a military coo!
All bets on hold |
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Don't agree Tom Cat. Betfair have acted correctly up to this point, and I don't think history would record it that way: merely that May continued to be prime minister as conservative party attempted to form a new government by obtaining a working agreement with another party.
She has now succeeded in doing just that, and this market should be settled. |
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Same as Baldwin in 1923 who remained Prime Minister even though there was a conservative minority.
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My pocket just had a £9 bet on Angela Eagle as next PM. Someone who doesn't deserve it is getting nearly a tenner off me!
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Betfair CS are adamant that markets on next PM & next Government will not be settled until the result of the vote on the Queens speech is known.
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Pity for all that have backed her that they hadn't mentioned the vote on the Queen's speech in their own rules.
If they would stick to their rules on the market then the market would be settled today/now. |
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again, going back to Baldwin's situation, the same could happen again. Failure to pass Queen's speech triggering a vote of no confidence.
But the point is that that isn't going to happen now. |
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Can anyone explain which part of the rules for this market that haven't been met yet?
MARKET INFORMATION For further information please see Rules & Regs. Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election. This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. |
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may has not signed the deal
it was signed by dup and tory chief whip curious stuff |
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Not sure if May has to sign anything. The deal has been done and she's still PM
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May doesn't have to sign anything - it's been signed by the Chief Whip, who is formally representing her party. If they're waiting for May to sign it this market will still be unsettled in 100 years. Maybe that's Betfair's plan.
At the very least, they should be getting their customer service guys to be consistent - if all the comments above are correct then we're all getting different stories. This really is ridiculous now. |
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thats probably correct james, i just found it odd she had not signed
perhaps she isnt hanging around for long ?  i see no reason the vote wont be won, and market settled by friday morning |
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Rubbish rules, whoever framed them clearly doesn't know much.
Whoever settles the market based on the said rules knows even less. Whoever is still prepared to lay £3000 on a Lab/Lib/SNP coalition knows less still. A funny old market. I'm off on holiday for 2 weeks tomorrow, I wonder if it'll have been sorted by the time I get back? |
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Actually, Donny, I think tying this in to the vote on the Queen's Speech could lead to all sorts of problems.
Firstly, there's the question of the Labour party amendments, which are expected to be tabled tomorrow, I think. It's plausible (although probably unlikely) that these could look palatable enough that a few Tories rebel in the main vote and support the amendments - I think about 7 would do it. Normally this would finish their careers, but given May's weakness and the strength of feeling around many of the EU issues, I wouldn't rule it out completely. Alternatively, the vote might pass the Commons but fail to get through the Lords, in which case it has to come back to the Commons again. This would take time. And what will Betfair do if an amended version of the Queen's Speech is passed? Are they going to hang around for a No Confidence motion (which might never come). In which case it's just about possible that we could be waiting 5 years. The most likely scenario is that the vote passes straight through both chambers. But there's a danger that Betfair tie themselves in knots over this. And, by their own rules, the outcome is already decided. |
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What a farce this market has become. Doubt anyone will be using it at the next election if Betfair can't even work it when to settle it.
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By their own rules they can settle the market now and have no come backs, they'd just have to quote their
rules on the market. |
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I think they're being idiots although having not settled the very moment the deal was revealed officially, let alone once it was signed, they snookered themselves. Astonishing that May going to the palace with nothing suspended the market and a signed agreement doesn't settle.
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Someone in Betfair is in denial, and doesn't want to admit they were wrong, in not settling, after the palace visit.
Every company has them, eventually they are weeded out. |
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On the rather ambiguous rules they'd published I think it was fair enough not to settle before the DUP deal but seems very eccentric indeed not settling on that, especially as they'd given people to understand a deal was what they were waiting for.
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When do you think they'll settle the second general election 2017 market? I think I'll be lucky to see my payout for no by February.
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I've made a formal complaint to IBAS and would encourage others to do so - it's not just the changing of the terms that annoys me, its the complete lack of information from Betfair - at minimum they should declare their position as to what they require to close the bet, I've been told four different things on the closing of the next PM bet and each time they then change the goalposts - customer services are useless. It's clear to me that Betfair is simply holding our money as it suits them. Where does it say in the next PM bet that you have to wait for the Queens speech to be voted through the Commons? That's not what I bet on? If JC can refer to TM as PM, then why is that not good enough for Betfair? Ridiculous, has totally put me off using Betfair in the future.
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kissmy, agreed and followed suit.
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Very much doubt holding on to our cash in a £13m market is the motivation but I'm not defending their failure to settle, which I think is probably due to incompetence. Suspect they got caught on the hop by the announcement of the agreement and then couldn't settle later because that would have looked even more incompetent than brazening it out.
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until when though , fatslogger. we all probably assume that betfair will settle the market immediately after the queens speech vote on thursday but as they have avoided or refused to state that who knows ?
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the only sure thing is that 30 seconds before this market is finally suspended " someone " will sweep the board
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