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Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?
Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?
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pnam; Have they said what they're waiting for?
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I haven't actually asked as I'd assumed that most books hadn't closed this market yet and were just waiting to see how it played out like Betfair. I've also got some money tied up with Smarkets and they haven't settled yet either.
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I don;t think Betfair thought through all the scenarios when they set this market up
Their rules simply talk about 'forming a ministry' which to me simply means appointing all cabinet and junior ministers , and that has been done . I mocked the early posts in this thread where people are saying 'the media are calling her Prime Minister' as that was not relevant to the rules , but i can't see anything about the government needing to survive a commons vote in the rules either. The Government has been formed , it is precarious now , but will still be precarious for as long as it lasts. So i think it should have been settled. |
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Must surely just be waiting for an announcement that there's no DUP coalition, which is 100/1 to happen.
Other than that surely should be settled after the Queens speech......how long can you wait!! |
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Untill Corbyn
 becomes PM |
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I still think (although I didn't always) that Betfair has this right, as it's still theoretically possible for DUP to oppose May and either an alternative government be formed or none, if the DUP also opposes Labour. That this I see vanishingly unlikely isn't really the point. The alternative view that May is already leading a minority Tory administration consequent to the GE is also legitimate but far from clear cut.
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I meant is not I see but sort of works either way.
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price coming in now - 1.12 - must be a gift as is con min at 1.07 - what couuld possibly go wrong? Everything?
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It's been very generously priced throughout.
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latest reply from betfair
Thanks for getting in touch. Until the Queen assent’s the formulation of the government, we will not be settling any of the above markets. Currently Theresa May has announced her cabinet, but that isn’t the definition of a formation of the government. Any acting PM can change the cabinet if they were to be appointed. Theresa May will meet the Queen on an unknown date to confirm her plans as the PM. The reason for this delay is that the Conservatives & DUP are negotiating a deal that could take some time. Again from our perspective, we cannot settle any of the above markets until the Queen has consented to Theresa May’s plans. My response https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/.../cabinet-manual.pd I can’t find any references in the cabinet manual to a Prime Minister ‘"putting forward her cabinet to the Queen” or where and when it is voted on, can you point me in the right direction for your source. |
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bet365 appear to have confirmed on Twitter that they'll be settling General Election markets once the Opening of Parliament takes place, we'll see.
https://twitter.com/bet365/status/876878439156002816 |
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sorry previous post was wrong
latest from betfair was Thanks for getting in touch. Basically, following approval of the Queen, if May puts forward her cabinet and this is voted on and she does not get enough votes then there will be 2 alternatives. Either she resigns and another conservative leader will take over and give their viable option to the Queen and the process is repeated. Or else the opposition (Corbyn) will offer his own alternative. If neither of these are actually voted upon and won then there could be a dissolvation of parliament and another General Election. In which case then the whole market of Next Government and also next PM will be voided and all the exposure released my response https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/.../cabinet-manual.pd I can’t find any references in the cabinet manual to a Prime Minister ‘"putting forward her cabinet to the Queen” or where and when it is voted on, can you point me in the right direction for your source. |
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Its clear that in the event of another election then the next government market will be voided. However the next prime minster market does not have that rule in it, the market should continue until there is a pm.
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matty stop nit-picking, they meant government in the widest sense (including legislative programme)rather than cabinet.
Due to May's duplicity and desperation to hold power, the Queens speech vote ie a vote in the commons supporting May's government and legislative programme is the appropriate time to settle this market. @bingo bongo that anomaly is what prevented me betting in the market and from past experience there is no point asking betfair for clarity as they will take no responsibility for the wrong info. |
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dave1357. Have betfair told you "they mean government in the widest sense"? They've quoted cabinet to me in various replies. I have been in correspondence for 10 days with betfair, I know what they mean.
The market should be settled according to the markets' rules, no more no less. |
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The first para of the rules doesn't mention cabinet
Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election |
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Betfair settlers would appear to be making it up as they go along......most of their pronouncements mean nothing to me. If you google them it would appear that they mean nothing to anyone else either.
Why not just come out and say "we'll settle on the vote on the Queens speech", or "we'll settle once a formal DUP confidence & supply agreement is reached". It's very poor customer service from them, but sadly not for the first time..... |
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May is still trying to form a government and that government should be confirmed by the Queens speech vote. (Incidentally it will be a major constitutional scandal if she got voted down as she shouldn't have gone that far without near certainty of a majority.)
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I agree....the point being why Betfair can't at something similar re settlement.
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I just think Betfair has struggle badly with the complexities of this one but that's no good excuse for the vague communication. They must have some idea what events would trigger a settlement by now.
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The market has been slowly waking up to how much of a lock this is. Still value in both Tory minority and May but as I keep saying, already in on the two summed for almost 2/3 of my bank, plus another's large chunk on no general election this year so already stuffed full of over exposure.
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Fatso - Stop trying to trick people into throwing more money away! You'd have to be insane to be a backer of May. Her price could literally explode at any moment, for a variety of reasons, given people zero time to exit their positions...
Betfair are absolutely correct in their stance NOT to settle this market. May is in office, but she is NOT in power. She has NO working majority. NO government. It is still completely possible that someone else will end up being PM. The DUP deal is going to be subject to a legal challenge. The opposition parties are determined to vote down the Queen's speech. She even faces the very real prospect of internal Tory rebels scuppering her plans. (My personal feeling is that she's heading for a vote of no confidence, and that she'd probably already be long gone by now, had it not been for the awful & seemingly endless sequence of terrorist attacks, disasters, etc - which make sudden regime changes feel somewhat inappropriate!) The "opening of Parliament" changes nothing! IT IS STILL A HUNG PARLIAMENT! There is still NO INDISPUTABLE CONCLUSIVE OUTCOME. This market should NOT be settled until after the vote on the Queen's speech, at the very earliest! That's still many days away, perhaps even another week..? A sure bet? You'd have to be bonkers. Everything is stacked against May. I do agree that Betfair should have made things much clearer though :( It's become a real murky mess. Vague, evasive, ambiguous, contradictory, weak, wobbly... and that's just Theresa May! ;) |
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borgboy, I think you are way off mark....
"May is in office, but she is NOT in power. She has NO working majority", err, that's the point, a Conservative Minority is the winner in the new Gov't market. Clearly it may be settled after the Queens speech, but in the hugely unlikely event they lost that (No Conservative would vote against their own party, they would lose the whip, be expelled in effect) they certainly would not vote in support of Labour. Why would they want another election now? 1.05 is still value on the new Gov't market, as it's void if a new Gov't isn't formed. it should be 1.01 |
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Agree with kevinglass. I see what you're saying borgboy but you're being quite hysterical, even leaving aside your non literal use of the word literally. The opposition being keen to vote the Tories down matters not a jot if the DUP back them and all the indications are that they will. Legal challenges will have no teeth and even if they did, they won't stop the market being settled. Of course May is weak and there's a risk, that's why they call it gambling but the risk is very low, as there isn't really a plausible mechanism for her to be unseated by another Tory (and they've clearly decided to let her caretake for now) or for the opposition to defeat her, unless the DUP switches sides. The DUP abstaining results in Tory minority government led by May and even voting against but not backing Labour just leaves deadlock and another general election.
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Calm down dear! Leaving aside your non-hyphernation of the phrase "non literal", the "literally" thing was actually intended to be a coded euphemism, to represent the possibility of her being... well, you know what - it's been mentioned before, but I'm not risking ending up on some watchlist! :o
Boom! |
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That would be her exploding, not her price! Although I hadn't spotted the joke at all so apologies. The hyphe(r)n isn't essential though, by the way.
I am almost as worried about her being assassinated as other means of her not ending up PM. |
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No worries. I'd only be worried if she were my grammar ;)
P.S. If May becomes next PM, then who does the job in the mornings? |
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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/news.sky.com/story/amp/dup-talks-not-going-as-expected-sky-sources-10921500
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/20/brexit-news-queens-speech-dup-live2/ Boom! :) |
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Lawyers are understood to be keen for the judicial review to be heard before the end of this year at the latest......
Presumably they will have settled by then! |
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' In a blow to Mrs May’s hopes of a deal, the Northern Irish party warned that a deal was "certainly not imminent".
A DUP source told the Press Association that talks with Mrs May's Conservatives "haven't proceeded in a way that the DUP would have expected". They also warned that the party "can't be taken for granted". ' Just makes her seem more pathetic that she is constantly claiming a deal is done or just a formality. |
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It's mildly hilarious, although I'd rather it weren't messing with my money. I would have expected a bigger market move with this and got a couple of lays in at 1.11 and 1.12 accordingly, looking for higher prices later, which haven't yet materialised. It seems ages ago I was describing this as a market that refused to die.
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The DUP are some of the most experienced negotiators in the Uk, I wouldn't read too much into the reports, today. They are more concerned about the negotiations re the resumption of Stormont, which has to be concluded before the 29 th. I believe an agreement with the tories on a confidence and supply arrangement will be agreed before Monday of next week. I'll post on here eating humble pie, if I'm wrong.
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Kind of agree but thought it would spook the market more. I only got a bit of my buy back nibbled.
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Hearing this market gets settled tomorrow ?
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Why would they settle the market tomorrow ?
Why not settle it now , ? what is gonna be different tomorrow ? or indeed any time the last week . From what they've been saying the DUP deal was a big factor and now that is on the point of being kicked into touch  |
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It's ironic, but during the Queens speech, The Queen will refer to "My government", and "My Ministers" on numerous occasions, but, it still may not be enough for Betfair. In fact in may be worth making a market on the number of times she says it.
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the conservatives cannot enter into any pact with the DUP because of the good friday agreement hence it can only be a wink wink nod nod arrangement
nothing will be "kicked into touch " and the deal will be on the quiet |