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Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?
Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?
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i wonder if may has any worries about what might be in her queens speech
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or leaks about it
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I agree May is a dead woman walking but they won't want to have the corpse stop moving just yet. Still think she's a near lock. Corbyn can't make the numbers work for him and is at 19? It's madness. There's absolutely no way the Tories let him in: would be totally against their stated aims; actual aims and interests. Quite apart from not wanting him anywhere near any power, let alone Brexit negotiations, they'd be mad to give him the chance to choose when to have an election, which he'd have by default.
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You are making 2 wrong assumptions there IMO
Corbyn as minority PM does not need 300+ seats if the other partied fear an election. Corbyn as minority PM cannot choose the date of the election as would need a 2/3 majority or to pass a confidence vote against himself. |
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On the former point, that's exactly what I'm saying: there's no way the Tories will stand aside to let Corbyn in so he would need the backing of everyone else. It's bordering on delusional to think they wouldn't vote against any Corbyn Queen's Speech. They might well fear an election but that wouldn't be enough to outweigh all the reasons to vote him down, not least of which would be the massive loss of credibility if they didn't.
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On the election choice, you're right in theory and it's not a situation that there's precedent for but the point was that Corbyn would have the ability to choose an election date by default, not directly. He'd just need to force a no confidence vote on the house by doing something he would describe as crucial but that would be opposed by the Tories and insist that an election was the only way to proceed otherwise. Again they'd have a huge credibility problem in not voting him down, although this is a bit of a difficult scenario to imagine as it's totally ridiculous to suppose we could have got there in the first place and they could then make a new government themselves (which they could have done all along, which was my point all along).
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The Tories could vote stuff down if they liked and then just abstain whenever a formal confidence vote was tabled as that would be separate I believe.
The Tories credibility is about as low as it goes now , having dropped even since the election with their being trolled by the DUP. They can only recover with a decisive election win . As it is they will become more unpopular the longer they continue without a majority. Corbyn would effectively be the Tories prisoner in downing Street as PM All responsibility would be on him with very little power If it went well for him the Tories can keep him there until it starts going badly and meanwhile they can elect a new leader as a clean break from this whole mess. |
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I get your narrative here, I just think it's crazed. Tories give Corbyn power, including Brexit negotiations, especially when it would be obvious they could stop him? Not a whelk's chance in a supernova, for me.
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The market clearly perceives a chance that the prevailing anti May sentiment will lead to a Labour government and she's gone a long way out but I just can't see a plausible mechanism that doesn't involve the DUP backing Labour, which is itself implausible.
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There is zero chance of a Corbyn government, without another election. If the tories lose patience with May, another leader is elected and would take over as PM. as happened with cameron. IMO
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tobermory
They can only recover with a decisive election win The last 'decisive' Tory election win was 1987... 30 years ago Cameron won the first Tory majority in 25 years. And Theresa May threw it away |
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Even if she "jumps" she is still PM until the new Tory leader is elected. She has to actually completely resign as an MP and just leave and go f-ck the lot of you!
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Was just saying good point but can't get any more on anyway.
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She's back out to her pre election price now.
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Philip Hammond seemed very confident of doing the Autumn budget on the Marr show his morning. Likewise David Davies on various shows re Brexit.
Tories have too much to lose so will pull together.....certainly till after this market & next Gov't market is settled anyway. |
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Cant understand how she's stil 1.17 - looks too good to be true - should be all sorted on Weds
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as anyone from betfair actually confirmed that these markets will be settled if and when the queens speech is voted through on 27th june ?
if so , the 1.17 is a gift from heaven |
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Queens speech is this Weds - 20th
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the vote is a week later. Theresa doesn't fear enemies, only friends.
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Yet Corbyn is at 21s. All rather odd but I'm over committed already, having topped up repeatedly as May was going from 11 to 1.15.
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Dont see why Tes is 1.16 and con minority 1.09 - doesnt make sense when no time for a leadership change
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David Davis backed in to 19
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telegraph running a story tomorrow that he's gonna step in as interim leader
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so she takes a walk ??
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"The Brexit secretary is being touted as a candidate to take Britain past the March 2019 date when Britain is expected to leave the EU IF the Prime Minister quits suddenly."
More speculation. May is no quitter and has given no indication that she has had enough. |
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Probably Davies' people keeping his name in the headlines, plus the Torygraph likes him because he's hard line on Brexit. Wouldn't read too much into it, although with the amount I have on, any indication May may go is upsetting. I still very much don't think she will. She's the interim Tory leader.
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I have still to obtain from betfair any clear answer as to precisely what event will trigger the settlement of this 'PM after GE' market. Has anybody else had some success on this?
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I have just asked the question again on their Facebook page and sent another email, I'll post their reply, if and when.
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this is their response on f/b
Once the announcement of the coalition or an alternative deal has been made and confirmed, the markets should settle up, Brian. My response There are unlikely to be any announcements before the queens speech goes ahead on Wednesday, that will trigger the new parliament with a tory minority government and Theresa May has been prime minister since she went to the palace and The Queen invited her to form a government. On Friday you said something about the queens assent, Could you please ask the trading people to be more specific their response Currently the Queen has given Theresa May the opportunity to form a government. Theresa May is currently working with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the hope of securing either DUP support for a “Conservative Minority Government” or a “Conservative/DUP coalition”. With the DUP saying that ‘No Firm Deal’ is in place at the minute it is currently unclear which of the two scenarios Theresa May will present to the Queen to attain Royal assent. Although a “Conservative Minority” currently looks the most likely – it is far from a done deal as of yet. This process could be cleared up later soon and settlement will follow but it could also take some time depending on if the DUP v Conservative agreement hits any snags. In the 2010 Hung Parliament it took 5/6 days for a new Government to be formed and a new Prime Minister and Government to be elected my response Please check with the house of commons they reply very quickly. |
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I have emailed the House of Commons, the following:
If The Conservative party fails to reach a deal with the DUP before Wednesday, but goes ahead with the Queens Speech, Is Theresa May still Prime Minister or does she have to wait until a vote is taken on the Queen Speech, and is any further Royal Assent required? |
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Good work Matty1, they told me the same re visiting the Queen???
If the DUP & Conservatives have said there will be no coalition, then the only possible outcome is a Cons minority, with or without supply, it doesn't matter. Hopefully you may get some clarity from the Commons. |
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This is their reply
Thank you for your further message. The Prime Minister will remain in office until the Queen asks someone else to form a Government instead. The Queen would only do that if it is shown a)that the PM no longer has the confidence of the House and b) that another party leader does. This is not based on party numbers - it must be tested with a Commons vote on a motion: 'That this House has confidence in HM Government'. If there is no viable alternative government that can be formed (and win a vote of confidence) another general election would be called. It is perfectly possible for a minority Government to stay in office so long as they can persuade enough other MPs to vote with them on key votes - especially while no other party is in a position to govern with a majority. You can see details of all the minority governments and hung parliaments there have been since 1901 in our research briefing at: http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN04951 clearly both markets should now be settled, or am I missing something |
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I can see no anomale here, Brexit talks started in Europe today led by a legitimate
Tory minority government, Theresa May is living in no 10.. She is hosting the New Irish Taoiseach in talks today, every other bookie has settled as far as I know. |
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